Christine S. Olsen

Examining fire-prone forest landscapes as coupled human and natural systems

Fire-prone landscapes are not well studied as coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) and present many challenges for understanding and promoting adaptive behaviors and institutions. Here, we explore how heterogeneity, feedbacks, and external drivers in this type of natural hazard system can lead to complexity and can limit the development of more adaptive approaches to policy and management. Institutions and social networks can counter these limitations and promote adaptation. We also develop a conceptual model that includes a robust characterization of social subsystems for a fire-prone landscape in Oregon and describe how we are building an agent-based model to promote understanding of this social-ecological system. Our agent-based model, which incorporates existing ecological models of vegetation and fire and is based on empirical studies of landowner decision-making, will be used to explore alternative management and fire scenarios with land managers and various public entities. We expect that the development of CHANS frameworks and the application of a simulation model in a collaborative setting will facilitate the development of more effective policies and practices for fire-prone landscapes.

Trust, acceptance, and citizen–agency interactions after large fires: influences on planning processes

Wildfires have increased in number and size in recent years, making post-fire forest management an increasingly important topic. Citizen–agency interactions, citizen trust, and citizen acceptance of management strategies are central to successful planning and decision-making in these settings. In this study, citizen opinions from the attentive public are evaluated in two locations near recent fires in Oregon: the 2003 Bear and Booth Complex Fires and the 2002 Biscuit Fire. Results suggest an agency’s commitment to long-term interactions with citizens influences citizen trust in the agencies and acceptance of post-fire management strategies. There is broad acceptance for several post-fire management strategies (i.e. erosion control, replanting, reseeding). However, acceptance is highly dependent on trustworthy relations. Further, results suggest it is not enough to simply offer opportunities for public engagement; citizens need to feel that these activities were meaningful opportunities to participate. Although results differed between locations, overall the majority of respondents did not agree with how the local Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management handled forest planning after recent fires. Findings from this research indicate that positive citizen–agency relations need to be long-term and developed well before a fire occurs if post-fire actions are to be supported by communities.

Building community–agency trust in fire-affected communities in Australia and the United States

As a result of the increasing environmental and social costs of wildfire, fire management agencies face ever-growing complexity in their management decisions and interactions with the public. The success of these interactions with community members may be facilitated through building community-agency trust in the process of providing public input opportunities and community engagement and education activities. Without trust, the public may become frustrated in their interactions with the agency and withhold support for management decisions. This study takes a comparative case approach using interview data from communities near the King Valley fires in Victoria, Australia, and the Bear & Booth Complex fires in Oregon, USA. Several themes emerge that are common to both sites, including components of trustworthiness and actions or activities that contribute to a trusting relationship or environment. Key findings suggest trust and trustworthiness can be addressed interpersonally and institutionally and that flexible policies are important for implementation of locally appropriate outreach and management plans. Language: en

Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland–urban interface homeowners’ wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes

Expansion of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) and the increasing size and number of wildfires has policy-makers and wildfire managers seeking ways to reduce wildfire risk in communities located near fire-prone forests. It is widely acknowledged that homeowners can reduce their exposure to wildfire risk by using nonflammable building materials and reducing tree density near the home, among other actions. Although these actions can reduce the vulnerability of homes to wildfire, many homeowners do not take them. We examined the influence of risk factors on homeowners’ perceived wildfire risk components using a survey of WUI homeowners in central Oregon (USA) and biophysical data that described wildfire risk as predicted by wildfire simulation models, past wildfire, and vegetation characteristics. Our analysis included homeowners’ perceptions of the likelihood of wildfire and resulting damage, and examined how these factors contribute to homeowners’ likelihood to conduct mitigation actions. We developed an empirical model of homeowners’ risk perceptions and mitigation behavior, which served as input into an agent-based model to examine potential landscape and behavior changes over 50 years. We found homeowners’ wildfire risk perceptions to be positively correlated with hazardous conditions predicted by fuel models and weakly predictive of mitigation behavior. Homeowners’ perceived chance of wildfire was positively correlated with actual probability of wildfire, while their perceived chance of damage to the home was positively correlated with potential wildfire intensity. Wildfire risk perceptions also were found to be correlated with past wildfire experience. Our results suggest that homeowners may be savvy observers of landscape conditions, which act as “feedbacks” that enhance homeowners’ concerns about wildfire hazard and motivate them to take mitigation action. Alternatively, homeowners living in hazardous locations are somehow receiving the message that they need to take protective measures. Mitigation compliance output from the agent-based model suggests that completion of mitigation actions is likely to increase over 50 years under various scenarios.

Communicating about smoke from wildland fire: challenges and opportunities for managers.

Wildland fire and associated management efforts are dominant topics in natural resource fields. Smoke from fires can be a nuisance and pose serious health risks and aggravate pre-existing health conditions. When it results in reduced visibility near roadways, smoke can also pose hazardous driving conditions and reduce the scenic value of vistas. Communicating about smoke, whether in the preparation phases before a planned burn or during a wildfire event, can enable those at risk to make informed decisions to minimize their exposure to smoke or choose alternate activities that mitigate smoke completely. To date, very little research has been completed on the social aspects of smoke, such as communication or public perceptions. Here, we present findings from an exploratory study that examined challenges and opportunities related to communication (within agencies or to the public) for management of smoke from wildland fires. Interviews were conducted in California, Oregon, Montana, and South Carolina among a purposive sample of individuals, who are involved in fire or smoke management. Findings indicate that smoke poses several challenges to management agencies. Findings also provide insight into potential strategies to address such challenges by improving communication in both inter- and intra-agency situations as well as with members of the public. In particular, prioritizing fire and smoke-related communication within agencies, allocating agency resources specifically for training in communication and outreach endeavors, taking advantage of existing resources including informal social networks among the public, and building long-term relationships both between agencies and with the public were viewed as effective.

Longitudinal Social Science Research in Natural Resource Communities: Lessons and Considerations

The majority of social science research is cross-sectional in nature, with data collected at a single point in time. However, social systems are dynamic and many of the variables of interest to social scientists may change over time. Longitudinal research methods enable data collection at two or more points in time among a population of interest to examine change in measured variables and influencing factors. Despite the opportunities it affords, longitudinal research is relatively uncommon in natural-resource-based social science research as compared to other fields (e.g., medical, criminal, education). We feel that the field of natural resource social science is ripe for a proliferation of longitudinal studies, now that a substantial body of cross-sectional data has been built. In the spirit of encouraging more of this type of research, we draw on our collective experiences in longitudinal studies to share lessons learned in research design, sampling, and data management.

Public Acceptance of Disturbance-Based Forest Management: Factors Influencing Support

Growing emphasis on ecosystem and landscape-level forest management across North America has spurred an examination of alternative management strategies which focus on emulating dynamic natural disturbance processes, particularly those associated with forest fire regimes. This topic is the cornerstone of research in the Blue River Landscape Study (BRLS) on the Willamette National Forest in the McKenzie River watershed of western Oregon. As scientists and managers work to unravel the ecological and economic implications of disturbance-based forest management, they must also consider public acceptance for such an approach. In this study, citizen opinions from the local attentive public in McKenzie River watershed communities are examined. Results suggest the attentive public has moderate to low levels of knowledge about landscape-level disturbance processes and terms. Further, public confidence in agencies and the information they provide appears to be low, though respondents indicated a somewhat higher level of trust for local agency personnel than agencies as institutions. Overall, respondents display cautious support of disturbance-based management (DBM), but many are still undecided. Findings also demonstrate support may be improved through transparent and inclusive decision-making processes that demonstrate the use of sound science in project planning, frank disclosure of risks and uncertainties, and clear management objectives.

Integrating social science into empirical models of coupled human and natural systems

Coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) research highlights reciprocal interactions (or feedbacks) between biophysical and socioeconomic variables to explain system dynamics and resilience. Empirical models often are used to test hypotheses and apply theory that represent human behavior. Parameterizing reciprocal interactions presents two challenges for social scientists: (1) how to represent human behavior as influenced by biophysical factors and integrate this into CHANS empirical models; (2) how to organize and function as a multidisciplinary social science team to accomplish that task. We reflect on these challenges regarding our CHANS research that investigated human adaptation to fire-prone landscapes. Our project sought to characterize the forest management activities of land managers and landowners (or “actors”) and their influence on wildfire behavior and landscape outcomes by focusing on biophysical and socioeconomic feedbacks in central Oregon (USA). We used an agent-based model (ABM) to compile biophysical and social information pertaining to actor behavior, and to project future landscape conditions under alternative management scenarios. Project social scientists were tasked with identifying actors’ forest management activities and biophysical and socioeconomic factors that influence them, and with developing decision rules for incorporation into the ABM to represent actor behavior. We (1) briefly summarize what we learned about actor behavior on this fire-prone landscape and how we represented it in an ABM, and (2) more significantly, report our observations about how we organized and functioned as a diverse team of social scientists to fulfill these CHANS research tasks. We highlight several challenges we experienced, involving quantitative versus qualitative data and methods, distilling complex behavior into empirical models, varying sensitivity of biophysical models to social factors, synchronization of research tasks, and the need to substitute spatial for temporal variation in social data and models, among others. We offer recommendations that other research teams might consider when collaborating with social scientists in CHANS research.

A multi-region analysis of factors that influence public acceptance of smoke from different fire sources

The increase in area burned by wildfire has simultaneously brought increased concern about smoke impacts, both from wildfires and fires intentionally set to manage landscapes. Public concern about the potential health and other impacts of smoke can cause apprehension among managers who are considering prescribed burns, some to the point that they choose not to burn. Yet, very little is known about public acceptance of smoke. Using results from public surveys in four states, this paper explores the factors that influence public acceptance of smoke from six types of fire (wildfire, prescribed fire, agricultural burns, managed fire, pile burns and burns on private lands) as well as aggregate acceptance across all fire types. Overall, the public is generally accepting of smoke, particularly for fire types that are either viewed as uncontrollable (wildfire) or providing benefits to broader society rather than individuals. However, a sizable minority does not accept smoke. Factors that influence acceptance of smoke vary by fire type, but several coincided for multiple types of fire, including both health and non-health related risk, confidence in managing agencies, beliefs about benefits of prescribed fire use and rural living, among others. Prior experience with negative health impacts from smoke only influenced acceptance for agricultural burns.