Christoph Kurowski

Human resources for health: overcoming the crisis

In this analysis of the global workforce, the Joint Learning Initiative-a consortium of more than 100 health leaders-proposes that mobilisation and strengthening of human resources for health, neglected yet critical, is central to combating health crises in some of the worlds poorest countries and for building sustainable health systems in all countries. Nearly all countries are challenged by worker shortage, skill mix imbalance, maldistribution, negative work environment, and weak knowledge base. Especially in the poorest countries, the workforce is under assault by HIV/AIDS, out-migration, and inadequate investment. Effective country strategies should be backed by international reinforcement. Ultimately, the crisis in human resources is a shared problem requiring shared responsibility for cooperative action. Alliances for action are recommended to strengthen the performance of all existing actors while expanding space and energy for fresh actors.

Intervention complexity: a conceptual framework to inform priority-setting in health

Health interventions vary substantially in the degree of effort required to implement them. To some extent this is apparent in their financial cost, but the nature and availability of non-financial resources is often of similar importance. In particular, human resource requirements are frequently a major constraint. We propose a conceptual framework for the analysis of interventions according to their degree of technical complexity; this complements the notion of institutional capacity in considering the feasibility of implementing an intervention. Interventions are categorized into four dimensions: characteristics of the basic intervention; characteristics of delivery; requirements on government capacity; and usage characteristics. The analysis of intervention complexity should lead to a better understanding of supply- and demand-side constraints to scaling up, indicate priorities for further research and development, and can point to potential areas for improvement of specific aspects of each intervention to close the gap between the complexity of an intervention and the capacity to implement it. The framework is illustrated using the examples of scaling up condom social marketing programmes, and the DOTS strategy for tuberculosis control in highly resource-constrained countries. The framework could be used as a tool for policy-makers, planners and programme managers when considering the expansion of existing projects or the introduction of new interventions. Intervention complexity thus complements the considerations of burden of disease, cost-effectiveness, affordability and political feasibility in health policy decision-making. Reducing the technical complexity of interventions will be crucial to meeting the health-related Millennium Development Goals.

National spending on health by source for 184 countries between 2013 and 2040

BACKGROUND A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at similar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected. METHODS We extracted data from WHOs Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each countrys estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks. FINDINGS Global spending on health is expected to increase from US

Assessing Fiscal Space for Health in the SDG Era: A Different Story

7·83 trillion in 2013 to

Improving the health of the global poor

18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42-22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9-3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4-4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3-3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6-3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent

Delivery of Priority Health Services: Searching for synergies within the vertical versus horizontal debate

0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending. INTERPRETATION Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Scaling up priority health interventions in Tanzania: the human resources challenge

Abstract—Initially defined for overall public purposes, the concept of fiscal space was subsequently developed and adapted for the health sector. In this context, it has been applied in research and policy in over 50 low- and middle-income countries over the past ten years. Building on this vast experience and against the backdrop of shifts in the global health financing landscape in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) era, the commentary highlights key lessons and challenges in the approach to assessing potential fiscal space for health. In looking forward, the authors recommend that future fiscal space for health analyses primarily focus on domestic sources, with specific attention to potential expansion from the improved use and performance of public resources. Embedding assessments in national health planning and budgeting processes, with due consideration of the political economy dynamics, will provide a way to inform and impact allocative decisions more effectively.