Christophe Luczak

Simple standard procedure for the routine determination of organic matter in marine sediment

For the routine determination of organic matter inmarine sediment, a rough estimate is often obtained bymeasuring the loss of weight on ignition(Difference-On-Ignition method: D.O.I.). This D.O.I. is to beused in ecological studies where organic material insediment is used as an environmental variable amongothers. A review of papers using this method showed agreat variability within conditions used. Theseconditions are generally used without accuratejustification. We propose a simple standard procedurebased on grain-size fraction of sediment to determineoptimal temperature and time of ignition, and theinfluence of the sample weight. The method proposed, using the loss of weight on ignition, will give thesame accuracy in measurements of organic matter inmarine sediments.

Climate change impact on Balearic shearwater through a trophic cascade

A recent study showed that a critically endangered migratory predator species, the Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, rapidly expanded northwards in northeast Atlantic waters after the mid-1990s. As a significant positive correlation was found between the long-term changes in the abundance of this seabird and sea temperature around the British Isles, it was hypothesized that the link between the biogeographic shift and temperature occurred through the food web. Here, we test this conjecture and reveal concomitant changes in a regional index of sea temperature, plankton (total calanoid copepod), fish prey (anchovy and sardine) and the Balearic shearwater for the period 1980–2003. All three trophic levels exhibit a significant shift detected between 1994 and 1996. Our findings therefore support the assertion of both a direct and an indirect effect of climate change on the spatial distribution of post-breeding Balearic shearwater through a trophic cascade.

Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between-GCM variability was greater than the between-RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi-GCM and multi-RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between-GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties.

Impact of the Phaeocystis globosa spring bloom on the intertidal benthic compartment in the eastern English Channel: a synthesis.

From 1999 to 2005, studies carried out in the frame of regional and national French programs aimed to determine whether the Phaeocystis globosa bloom affected the intertidal benthic communities of the French coast of the eastern English Channel in terms of composition and/or functioning. Study sites were chosen to cover most of the typical shore types encountered on this coast (a rocky shore, an exposed sandy beach and a small estuary). Both the presence of active Phaeocystis cells and their degradation product (foam) did have a significant impact on the studied shores. The primary production and growth rates of the kelp Saccharina latissima decreased during the bloom because of a shortage of light and nutrient for the macroalgae. On sandy sediments, the benthic metabolism (community respiration and community primary production), as well as the nitrification rate, were enhanced during foam deposits, in relation with the presence of bacteria and active pelagic cells within the decaying colonies. In estuarine sediments, the most impressive impact was the formation of a crust at the sediment surface due to drying foam. This led to anoxic conditions in the surface sediment and resulted in a high mortality among the benthic community. Some organisms also tended to migrate upward and were then directly accessible to the higher trophic level represented by birds. Phaeocystis then created a shortcut in the estuarine trophic network. Most of these modifications lasted shortly and all the systems considered came back to their regular properties and activities a few weeks after the end of the bloom, except for the most impacted estuarine area.

North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls.

A recent increase in sea temperature has established a new ecosystem dynamic regime in the North Sea. Climate-induced changes in decapods have played an important role. Here, we reveal a coincident increase in the abundance of swimming crabs and lesser black-backed gull colonies in the North Sea, both in time and in space. Swimming crabs are an important food source for lesser black-backed gulls during the breeding season. Inhabiting the land, but feeding mainly at sea, lesser black-backed gulls provide a link between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, since the bottom-up influence of allochthonous nutrient input from seabirds to coastal soils can structure the terrestrial food web. We, therefore, suggest that climate-driven changes in trophic interactions in the marine food web may also have ensuing ramifications for the coastal ecology of the North Sea.

Warm-water decapods and the trophic amplification of climate in the North Sea

A long-term time series of plankton and benthic records in the North Sea indicates an increase in decapods and a decline in their prey species that include bivalves and flatfish recruits. Here, we show that in the southern North Sea the proportion of decapods to bivalves doubled following a temperature-driven, abrupt ecosystem shift during the 1980s. Analysis of decapod larvae in the plankton reveals a greater presence and spatial extent of warm-water species where the increase in decapods is greatest. These changes paralleled the arrival of new species such as the warm-water swimming crab Polybius henslowii now found in the southern North Sea. We suggest that climate-induced changes among North Sea decapods have played an important role in the trophic amplification of a climate signal and in the development of the new North Sea dynamic regime.

Long-Term Phenological Shifts in Raptor Migration and Climate

Climate change is having a discernible effect on many biological and ecological processes. Among observed changes, modifications in bird phenology have been widely documented. However, most studies have interpreted phenological shifts as gradual biological adjustments in response to the alteration of the thermal regime. Here we analysed a long-term dataset (1980-2010) of short-distance migratory raptors in five European regions. We revealed that the responses of these birds to climate-induced changes in autumn temperatures are abrupt and synchronous at a continental scale. We found that when the temperatures increased, birds delayed their mean passage date of autumn migration. Such delay, in addition to an earlier spring migration, suggests that a significant warming may induce an extension of the breeding-area residence time of migratory raptors, which may eventually lead to residency.

Climate-induced range shifts of the American jackknife clam Ensis directus in Europe

Mapping the future potential distribution of alien species has become an issue of great concern. Ecological niche models are increasingly used to forecast the spatial range of introduced species in the context of climate warming. Here, we studied the potential spread of the American jackknife clam Ensis directus into European waters. E. directus, a marine bivalve native to the American coasts, was observed in Europe for the first time in the German Bight at the end of the 1970s. Afterwards, the clam quickly colonized the surrounding waters of the North Sea. Although many studies focused on its biology, ecology and colonization, the extent to which E. directus may invade European and Nordic seas remained poorly known. In this study, we used two ecological niche models (ENMs), calibrated on the native area of the mollusk, to evaluate the potential distributional range of the bivalve over European seas. Under current environmental conditions, E. directus should continue to progress towards the southern coasts of France and may also invade new areas in the Adriatic Sea. Projections for the end of the century suggest that the probability of occurrence of E. directus increases from Denmark to France with both ENMs. The Tunisian coasts may also become a new suitable area for the mollusk but the results of the two ENMs differ for this region. Therefore, contrary to what is often observed, a southward range expansion of E. directus is probable, especially as climate will get warmer.

Identification of global and local components of spatial structure of marine benthic communities: example from the Bay of Seine (Eastern English Channel)

Abstract Data from samples of the macrobenthic Abra alba – Pectinaria koreni community of the eastern Bay of Seine (English Channel) collected in winter 1986 are analysed to illustrate the advantages of a novel method of multivariate analysis of spatial patterns described by Thioulouse et al. (Environ. Ecol. Stat., 2 (1995) 1–14), consisting of local and global approaches. Multivariate ordination procedures are applied that take spatial components into account explicitly through the construction of a neighbourhood graph between closely placed sampling sites, which is then used to weight the data. The result is a decomposition of spatial structure on local and global scales. This method is for the first time applied to macrobenthic data of this region. It shows the underlying importance of spatial scaling in analysis and proves to offer more information than classical ordination methods such as correspondence analysis, which may confuse the two different spatial scales. Global analysis is proposed as a powerful tool to define species assemblages and local analysis as an additional instrument to define partitions resulting from biological interactions. Additionally, this method appears capable of incorporating rare species (which influence classical analyses, often resulting in their elimination from datasets) by minimising their effects on the global scale and conversely maximising them on the local scale. This analysis demonstrates the importance of explicitly incorporating spatial information into the detection and interpretation of patterns in a macrobenthic community.

Climate change and the ash dieback crisis

Beyond the direct influence of climate change on species distribution and phenology, indirect effects may also arise from perturbations in species interactions. Infectious diseases are strong biotic forces that can precipitate population declines and lead to biodiversity loss. It has been shown in forest ecosystems worldwide that at least 10% of trees are vulnerable to extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated. In Europe, the emerging ash dieback disease caused by the fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, commonly called Chalara fraxinea, is causing a severe mortality of common ash trees (Fraxinus excelsior); this is raising concerns for the persistence of this widespread tree, which is both a key component of forest ecosystems and economically important for timber production. Here, we show how the pathogen and climate change may interact to affect the future spatial distribution of the common ash. Using two presence-only models, seven General Circulation Models and four emission scenarios, we show that climate change, by affecting the host and the pathogen separately, may uncouple their spatial distribution to create a mismatch in species interaction and so a lowering of disease transmission. Consequently, as climate change expands the ranges of both species polewards it may alleviate the ash dieback crisis in southern and occidental regions at the same time.