Christophe Menkes

A Model Study of Oceanic Mechanisms Affecting Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature during the 1997–98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992-98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997-98 El Nino event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1-2and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s21 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 108N-108S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992-98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s 21 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993-96 period and the 1997-98 El Nino. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central-western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997-98 El Nino. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Nino can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.

More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming

The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere’s most expansive and persistent rain band, extending from the equatorial western Pacific Ocean southeastward towards French Polynesia. Owing to its strong rainfall gradient, a small displacement in the position of the SPCZ causes drastic changes to hydroclimatic conditions and the frequency of extreme weather events—such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones—experienced by vulnerable island countries in the region. The SPCZ position varies from its climatological mean location with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), moving a few degrees northward during moderate El Niño events and southward during La Niña events. During strong El Niño events, however, the SPCZ undergoes an extreme swing—by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the Equator—and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure with commensurately severe weather impacts. Understanding changes in the characteristics of the SPCZ in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal SPCZ events between the periods 1891–1990 and 1991–2090 in response to greenhouse warming, even in the absence of a consensus on how ENSO will change. We estimate the increase in zonal SPCZ events from an aggregation of the climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) multi-model database that are able to simulate such events. The change is caused by a projected enhanced equatorial warming in the Pacific and may lead to more frequent occurrences of extreme events across the Pacific island nations most affected by zonal SPCZ events.

Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics.

Background Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system. Methodology/Principal Findings Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March–April) lagged the warmest temperature by 1–2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January–February–March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October–November–December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively. Conclusions/Significance The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was also crucial. An operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk was successfully developed. Similar models may be developed to improve dengue management in other countries.

Propagation and reflection of long equatorial waves in the Pacific Ocean during the 1992–1993 El Niño

The TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite, together with the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TOGA-TAO) array, provides oceanographic and atmospheric observations which allow a detailed study of the equatorial Pacific variability. During the November 1992 to December 1993 El Nino period, sea level, dynamic height, wind stress, sea surface temperature, and surface zonal current data derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON and TOGA-TAO measurements were used to describe the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system and to understand the role played by long equatorial waves. A potentially important mechanism of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), commonly referred to as the delayed action oscillator, involves Kelvin and long Rossby waves and their reflections at the Pacific western boundary. In order to investigate if this process was at work during the period under study, a method for projecting TOPEX sea level, TOGA-TAO dynamic height, and zonal wind stress onto meridional wave structures was designed both in unbounded and bounded regions. The Kelvin and first three Rossby waves of the first baroclinic mode are propagating at theoretical wave speeds in all data sets. Zonal wind stress projections show that oceanic propagating wave features are strongly linked to wind variability. Reflections are then examined at both boundaries. At the eastern boundary most of the signal reflected from incoming Kelvin waves is either counteracted by unfavorable wind forcing or strongly reinforced and therefore does not seem to play a significant role for generating the major Rossby wave signals during the period under study. In the western Pacific, wind forcing, rather than western boundary reflections, appears to be the main trigger for returning Kelvin waves from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific. Simultaneously with the weakening of the extended 1991–1993 ENSO event, an upwelling Kelvin wave is observed propagating from the western Pacific in September 1993 to the eastern Pacific in November 1993. This scenario is consistent with some features of the delayed action oscillator mechanism, where an upwelling Kelvin wave is systematically seen returning from the western boundary to the east at the end of warm events. However, here, contrary to the delayed action oscillator, most of this returning Kelvin wave seems to be forced by a strong easterly anomaly located in the western Pacific, rather than by reflection of an upwelling first Rossby wave at the western boundary.

Cirene: Air—Sea Interactions in the Seychelles—Chagos Thermocline Ridge Region

The Vasco-Cirene program explores how strong air-sea interactions promoted by the shallow thermocline and high sea surface temperature in the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge results in marked variability at synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual time scales. The Cirene oceanographic cruise collected oceanic, atmospheric, and air-sea flux observations in this region in January–February 2007. The contemporaneous Vasco field experiment complemented these measurements with balloon deployments from the Seychelles. Cirene also contributed to the development of the Indian Ocean observing system via deployment of a mooring and 12 Argo profilers. Unusual conditions prevailed in the Indian Ocean during January and February 2007, following the Indian Ocean dipole climate anomaly of late 2006. Cirene measurements show that the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge had higher-than-usual heat content with subsurface anomalies up to 7°C. The ocean surface was warmer and fresher than average, and unusual eastward cur...

Ocean response to the March 1997 Westerly Wind Event

An Ocean General Circulation Model is used to investigate the oceanic response to the March 1997 Westerly Wind Event that is suggested to have played an important role in the onset of the 1997–1998 El Nino. Our results point out three distinct impacts. First a strong wind-forced downwelling Kelvin wave propagates eastward generating sea surface temperature anomalies up to 1°C and large subsurface temperature and zonal current anomalies, mainly located in the core of the thermocline. Second the northward and westward extension of this wind event is responsible for a surface advection of cold waters from 130°E–5°N to the equator. Third it generates large zonal surface currents at the eastern edge of the warm and fresh pool by a nonlinear interaction between the wind-forced surface jet and the local thermohaline front. Salinity through both its contribution to the local zonal pressure gradient at the front and the barrier layer effect is crucial in the occurrence of this nonlinear mechanism. The fast displacement of the front (2000 km in a month) together with the cooling in the western Pacific is likely to be responsible for the eastward displacement of atmospheric deep convection and eastward winds observed in April–June 1997 and thus to have played a major role in initiating the El Nino of the century.

Processes setting the characteristics of sea surface cooling induced by tropical cyclones

[1] A 1/2° resolution global ocean general circulation model is used to investigate the processes controlling sea surface cooling in the wake of tropical cyclones (TCs). Wind forcing related to more than 3000 TCs occurring during the 1978–2007 period is blended with the CORE II interannual forcing, using an idealized TC wind pattern with observed magnitude and track. The amplitude and spatial characteristics of the TC-induced cooling are consistent with satellite observations, with an average cooling of � 1°C that typically extends over 5 radii of maximum wind. A Wind power index (WPi) is used to discriminate cooling processes under TCs with high-energy transfer to the upper ocean (strong and/or slow cyclones) from the others (weak and/or fast cyclones). Surface heat fluxes contribute to � 50 to 80% of the cooling for weak WPi as well as away from the cyclone track. Within 200 km of the track, mixing-induced cooling increases linearly with WPi, explaining � 30% of the cooling for weak WPis and up to � 80% for large ones. Mixing-induced cooling is strongly modulated by pre-storm oceanic conditions. For a given WPi, vertical processes can induce up to 8 times more cooling for shallow mixed layer and steep temperature stratification than for a deep mixed layer. Vertical mixing is the main source of rightward bias of the cold wake for weak and moderate WPi, but along-track advection becomes the main contributor to the asymmetry for the largest WPis.

A Modeling Study of the Impact of Tropical Instability Waves on the Heat Budget of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific

A numerical simulation is used to investigate the mixed layer heat balance of the tropical Pacific Ocean including the equatorial cold tongue and the region of vortices associated with tropical instability waves (TIWs). The study is motivated by a need to quantify the effects that TIWs have on the climatological heat budget of the cold tongue mixed layer; there has been some discrepancy between observations indicating very large equatorward heat transport by TIWs and models that disagree on the full three-dimensional budget. Validation of the model reveals that the TIW-induced circulation patterns are realistic but may have amplitudes about 15% weaker than those in the observations. The SST budget within tropical instabilities is first examined in a frame of reference moving with the associated tropical instability vortices (TIVs). Zonal advection of temperature anomalies and meridional advection of temperature by current anomalies dominate horizontal advection. These effects strongly heat the cold cusps and slightly cool the downwelling areas located at the leading edge of the vortices. Cooling by vertical mixing is structured at the vortex scale and almost compensates for horizontal advective heating in the cold cusps. In contrast to some previous studies, TIW-induced vertical advection is found to be negligible in the SST budget. Cooling by this term is only significant below the mixed layer. The effect of TIWs on the climatological heat budget is then investigated for the region bounded by 2°S–6°N, 160°–90°W, where instabilities are most active. TIWinduced horizontal advection leads to a warming of 0.84°C month 1 , which is of the same order as the 0.77°C month 1 warming effect of atmospheric fluxes, while the mean currents and vertical mixing cool the upper ocean by 0.59°C month 1 and 1.06°C month 1 , respectively. The cooling effect of TIW-induced vertical advection is also negligible in the long-term surface layer heat budget and only becomes significant below the mixed layer. The results above, and in particular the absence of cancellation between horizontal and vertical TIW-induced eddy advection, are robust in three other sensitivity experiments involving different mixing parameterizations and increased vertical resolution.

Influence of the Seasonal Cycle on the Termination of El Niño Events in a Coupled General Circulation Model

In this study, the mechanisms leading to the El Nino peak and demise are explored through a coupled general circulation model ensemble approach evaluated against observations. The results here suggest that the timing of the peak and demise for intense El Nino events is highly predictable as the evolution of the coupled system is strongly driven by a southward shift of the intense equatorial Pacific westerly anomalies during boreal winter. In fact, this systematic late-year shift drives an intense eastern Pacific thermocline shallowing, constraining a rapid El Nino demise in the following months. This wind shift results from a southward displacement in winter of the central Pacific warmest SSTs in response to the seasonal evolution of solar insolation. In contrast, the intensity of this seasonal feedback mechanism and its impact on the coupled system are significantly weaker in moderate El Nino events, resulting in a less pronounced thermocline shallowing. This shallowing transfers the coupled system into an unstable state in spring but is not sufficient to systematically constrain the equatorial Pacific evolution toward a rapid El Nino termination. However, for some moderate events, the occurrence of intense easterly wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific during that period initiate a rapid surge of cold SSTs leading to La Nina conditions. In other cases, weaker trade winds combined with a slightly deeper thermocline allow the coupled system to maintain a broad warm phase evolving through the entire spring and summer and a delayed El Nino demise, an evolution that is similar to the prolonged 1986/87 El Nino event. La Nina events also show a similar tendency to peak in boreal winter, with characteristics and mechanisms mainly symmetric to those described for moderate El Nino cases.

A whirling ecosystem in the equatorial Atlantic

[1] The equatorial Pacific and Atlantic oceans exhibit remarkable meridional undulations in temperature and chlorophyll fronts visible from space over thousands of kilometers and often referred to as tropical instability waves. Here, we present new observations of an ecosystem ranging through three trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton and small pelagic fish whirling within a tropical vortex of the Atlantic ocean and associated with such undulations. Cold, nutrient and biologically rich equatorial waters are advected northward and downward to form sharp fronts visible in all tracers and trophic levels. The equatorward recirculation experiences upwelling at depth, with the pycnocline and ecosystem progressively moving toward the surface to reconnect with the equatorial water mass. The observations thus indicate that it is a fully three-dimensional circulation that dominates the distribution of physical and biological tracers in the presence of tropical instabilities and maintains the cusp-like shapes of temperature and chlorophyll observed from space.