Christopher B. Edge

Setting an optimal α that minimizes errors in null hypothesis significance tests.

Null hypothesis significance testing has been under attack in recent years, partly owing to the arbitrary nature of setting α (the decision-making threshold and probability of Type I error) at a constant value, usually 0.05. If the goal of null hypothesis testing is to present conclusions in which we have the highest possible confidence, then the only logical decision-making threshold is the value that minimizes the probability (or occasionally, cost) of making errors. Setting α to minimize the combination of Type I and Type II error at a critical effect size can easily be accomplished for traditional statistical tests by calculating the α associated with the minimum average of α and β at the critical effect size. This technique also has the flexibility to incorporate prior probabilities of null and alternate hypotheses and/or relative costs of Type I and Type II errors, if known. Using an optimal α results in stronger scientific inferences because it estimates and minimizes both Type I errors and relevant Type II errors for a test. It also results in greater transparency concerning assumptions about relevant effect size(s) and the relative costs of Type I and II errors. By contrast, the use of α = 0.05 results in arbitrary decisions about what effect sizes will likely be considered significant, if real, and results in arbitrary amounts of Type II error for meaningful potential effect sizes. We cannot identify a rationale for continuing to arbitrarily use α = 0.05 for null hypothesis significance tests in any field, when it is possible to determine an optimal α.

Laboratory and field exposure of two species of juvenile amphibians to a glyphosate-based herbicide and Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Herbicides are commonly used in agriculture and silviculture to reduce interspecific competition among plants and thereby enhance crop growth, quality, and volume. Internationally, formulations of glyphosate-based herbicides are the most widely used herbicides in both these sectors. A large amount of work has focused on the effects of these herbicides on amphibians. Several laboratory and mesocosm studies have demonstrated that various formulations of glyphosate herbicides can be acutely toxic to larval and juvenile amphibians at concentrations at the upper end of environmental realism. However, to date there has been little work done investigating such effects in natural systems, limited work on juvenile amphibians, and only a few studies have investigated interactions with other stressors. We conducted a 16 day field experiment in which juveniles of two amphibian species (Lithobates clamitans and Lithobates pipiens) were exposed to the herbicide Roundup WeatherMax™ at four application rates (0, 2.16, 4.32 and 8.64 kg a.e./ha) to investigate effects on survival, liver somatic index (LSI), body condition, and incidence of disease caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). In a separate 16 day laboratory experiment, we exposed juvenile L. clamitans to both the herbicide and Bd. Results of our studies showed that this particular herbicide formulation had no effect on juvenile survival, LSI, body condition, or disease incidence, nor was there an interaction between exposure to herbicide and exposure to the disease in tests which closely mimic real world exposure scenarios. These experiments suggest that Roundup WeatherMax as typically used in agriculture is unlikely to cause significant deleterious effects on juvenile amphibians under real world exposure conditions.

Exposure of juvenile green frogs (Lithobates clamitans) in littoral enclosures to a glyphosate-based herbicide.

The majority of studies on the toxicity of glyphosate-based herbicides to amphibians have focused on larval life stages exposed in aqueous media. However, adult and juvenile amphibians may also be exposed directly or indirectly to herbicides. The potential for such exposures is of particular interest in the littoral zone surrounding wetlands as this is preferred habitat for many amphibian species. Moreover, it may be argued that potential herbicide effects on juvenile or adult amphibians could have comparatively greater influence on overall recruitment, reproductive potential and thus stability of local populations than effects on larvae. In this experiment, juvenile green frogs (Lithobates clamitans) were exposed to two concentrations (2.16 and 4.27 kg a.e./ha) of a glyphosate-based herbicide formulation (VisionMax®), which were based on typical application scenarios in Canadian forestry. The experimental design employed frogs inhabiting in situ enclosures established at the edge of small naturalized wetlands that were split in half using an impermeable plastic barrier. When analyzed using nominal target application rates, exposure to the glyphosate-based herbicide had no significant effect on survival, body condition, liver somatic index or the observed rate of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection. However, there were marginal trends in both ANOVA analysis and post-hoc regressions regarding B. dendrobatidis infection rates and liver somatic index in relation to measured exposure estimates. Results from this study highlight the importance of field research and the need to include multiple endpoints when examining potential effects of a contaminant on non-target organisms.

Effects of the glyphosate-based herbicide Roundup WeatherMax ® on metamorphosis of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in natural wetlands

Amphibian tadpoles develop in aquatic environments where they are susceptible to the effects of pesticides and other environmental contaminants. Glyphosate-based herbicides are currently the most commonly used herbicide in the world and have been shown to affect survival and development of tadpoles under laboratory and mesocosm conditions. In the present study, whole wetland manipulations were used to determine if exposure to an agriculturally relevant application of Roundup WeatherMax(®), a herbicide formulation containing the potassium salt of glyphosate and an undisclosed surfactant, influences the development of wood frog tadpoles (Lithobates sylvaticus) under natural conditions. Wetlands were divided in half with an impermeable curtain so that each wetland contained a treatment and control side. Tadpoles were exposed to two pulses of this herbicide at an environmentally realistic concentration (ERC, 0.21 mg acid equivalent (a.e.)/L) and the predicted maximum environmental concentration (PMEC, 2.89 mg a.e./L), after which abundance, growth, development, and mRNA levels of genes involved in tadpole metamorphosis were measured. Results present little evidence that exposure to this herbicide affects abundance, growth and development of wood frog tadpoles. As part of the Long-term Experimental Wetlands Area (LEWA) project, this research demonstrates that typical agricultural use of Roundup WeatherMax(®) poses minimal risk to larval amphibian development. However, our gene expression data (mRNA levels) suggests that glyphosate-based herbicides have the potential to alter hormonal pathways during tadpole development.

The response of amphibian larvae to exposure to a glyphosate-based herbicide (Roundup WeatherMax) and nutrient enrichment in an ecosystem experiment

Herbicides and fertilizers are widely used throughout the world and pose a threat to aquatic ecosystems. Using a replicated, whole ecosystem experiment in which 24 small wetlands were split in half with an impermeable barrier we tested whether exposure to a glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup WeatherMax™, alone or in combination with nutrient enrichment has an effect on the survival, growth or development of amphibians. The herbicide was applied at one of two concentrations (low=210 μg a.e./L, high=2880 μg a.e./L) alone and in combination with nutrient enrichment to one side of wetlands and the other was left as an untreated control. Each treatment was replicated with six wetlands, and the experiment was repeated over two years. In the high glyphosate and nutrient enrichment treatment the survival of wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) larvae was lower in enclosures placed in situ on the treated sides than the control sides of wetlands. However, these results were not replicated in the second year of study and they were not observed in free swimming wood frog larvae in the wetlands. In all treatments, wood frog larvae on the treated sides of wetlands were slightly larger (<10%) than those on the control side, but no effect on development was observed. The most dramatic finding was that the abundance of green frog larvae (Lithobates clamitans) was higher on the treated sides than the control sides of wetlands in the herbicide and nutrient treatments during the second year of the study. The results observed in this field study indicate that caution is necessary when extrapolating results from artificial systems to predict effects in natural systems. In this experiment, the lack of toxicity to amphibian larvae was probably due to the fact the pH of the wetlands was relatively low and the presence of sediments and organic surfaces which would have mitigated the exposure duration.

Habitat alteration and habitat fragmentation differentially affect beta diversity of stream fish communities

ContextThe cumulative impact of broad scale environmental change includes altered land-cover and fragmentation. Both altered land-cover and fragmentation have a negative effect on species diversity, but the scale they act on may differ because land-cover alters environmental characteristics, whereas fragmentation alters movement among sites.ObjectivesWe evaluated the scale specific effects of land-cover, fragmentation, and habitat size on alpha and beta diversity (total, turnover, and nestedness).MethodsStream fish communities were sampled across five urbanizing watersheds. Generalized mixed linear models were used to test how diversity (alpha and beta) is affected by land-cover, connectivity, and habitat size. Indices of land-cover were calculated from correspondence analyses on land-cover data, fragmentation was estimated with the dendritic connectivity index, and habitat size was calculated as the length of the stream segment (alpha diversity) or the length of the stream network (beta diversity).ResultsAlpha diversity was most strongly related to land-cover variables associated with urban development and agriculture (negative relationship with urbanization). Whereas, beta diversity was most strongly influenced by habitat size (positive relationship) and fragmentation (positive relationship). Turnover was positively correlated with fragmentation and habitat size, whereas species loss was negatively correlated with habitat size.ConclusionsLand-cover has a larger effect on alpha diversity because it alters the environmental conditions at a site, whereas fragmentation has a larger effect on beta diversity because it affects the movement of individuals among sites. Assessing the cumulative impact of environmental change requires a multiscale approach that simultaneously considers alpha and beta diversity.

Variation in amphibian response to two formulations of glyphosate-based herbicides.

Variation in toxicity among formulations and species makes it difficult to extrapolate results to all species and all formulations of herbicides. The authors exposed larval wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) from 4 populations to 2 glyphosate-based herbicides, Roundup Weed and Grass Control® and Roundup WeatherMax®. The 96-h median lethal concentration values for both formulations varied among the populations (Roundup Weed and Grass Control, 0.14 mg acid equivalents (a.e.)/L to 1.10 mg a.e./L; Roundup WeatherMax, 4.94 mg a.e./L to 8.26 mg a.e./L), demonstrating that toxicity varies among the formulations and that susceptibility may differ among populations.

Phenotypic plasticity of nest timing in a post‐glacial landscape: how do reptiles adapt to seasonal time constraints?

Life histories evolve in response to constraints on the time available for growth and development. Nesting date and its plasticity in response to spring temperature may therefore be important components of fitness in oviparous ectotherms near their northern range limit, as reproducing early provides more time for embryos to complete development before winter. We used data collected over several decades to compare air temperature and nest date plasticity in populations of painted turtles and snapping turtles from a relatively warm environment (southeastern Michigan) near the southern extent of the last glacial maximum to a relatively cool environment (central Ontario) near the northern extent of post-glacial recolonization. For painted turtles, population-level differences in reaction norm elevation for two phenological traits were consistent with adaptation to time constraints, but no differences in reaction norm slopes were observed. For snapping turtle populations, the difference in reaction norm elevation for a single phenological trait was in the opposite direction of what was expected under adaptation to time constraints, and no difference in reaction norm slope was observed. Finally, among-individual variation in individual plasticity for nesting date was detected only in the northern population of snapping turtles, suggesting that reaction norms are less canalized in this northern population. Overall, we observed evidence of phenological adaptation, and possibly maladaptation, to time constraints in long-lived reptiles. Where present, (mal)adaptation occurred by virtue of differences in reaction norm elevation, not reaction norm slope. Glacial history, generation time, and genetic constraint may all play an important role in the evolution of phenological timing and its plasticity in long-lived reptiles.