Christopher B. Sherwin

Modelling the long term water yield impact of wildfire and other forest disturbance in Eucalypt forests

Disturbance of forested catchments by fire, logging, or other natural or human induced events that alter the evapotranspiration regime may be a substantial threat to domestic, environmental and industrial water supplies. This paper describes the physically-based modelling of the long term changes in water yield from two wildfire affected catchments in north-eastern Victoria, Australia, and of fire and climate change scenarios in Melbournes principal water supply catchment. The effect of scale, data availability and quality, and of forest species parameterisation are explored. The modelling demonstrates the importance of precipitation inputs, with Nash and Sutcliffe Coefficients of Efficiency of predicted versus observed monthly flows increasing from 0.5 to 0.8 with a higher density of rainfall stations, and where forest types are well parameterised. Total predicted flow volumes for the calibrations were within 1% of the observed for the Mitta Mitta River catchment and <4% for the Thomson River, but almost -10% for the less well parameterised Tambo River. Despite the issues of data availability simulations demonstrated the potential for significant impacts to water supply in SE Australia from wildfire and climate change. For example, for the catchments modelled the moderate climate change impact on water yield was more pronounced than the worst fire scenario. Both modelled cases resulted in long term water yield declines exceeding 20%, with the climate change impact nearing 30%. A simulation using observed data for the first four post-fire years at the Mitta Mitta River catchment showed Macaque was able to accurately predict total flow.

Downscaling regional climate data to calculate the radiative index of dryness in complex terrain

The radiative index of dryness (or aridity index) is a non-dimensional measure of the long-term balance between rainfall and net radiation. Quantifying aridity requires spatially distributed information on net radiation and rainfall. The variability in net radiation in complex terrain can be modelled at high spatial resolution by combining point data with equations that incorporate the effects of elevation, surface geometry and atmospheric attenuation of incoming radiation. At large spatial scales and over long time periods, however, the combination of seasonality, year to year variations and spatial variability in climate result in complex spatial-temporal patterns of incoming radiation, which are more effectively captured in satellite-based measurements. This study uses a high resolution model of shortwave radiation as a tool for downscaling satellite-derived data on incoming radiation. The aim was to incorporate topographic effects on net radiation in complex terrain while retaining information on regional and seasonal trends captured in satellite data. The method relies on satellite-based measures of incoming radiation from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) to provide the spatial coverage and long-term data that represent the average incoming radiation across the state of Victoria in southeast Australia. These long-term data were coupled with a topographic downscaling algorithm to produce estimates of net radiation and aridity at the resolution of a 20 m digital elevation model. Results show that annual precipitation (and cloud fraction) gradients drive the variability in aridity at large scales (10–100 km) while topography (e.g. slope aspect and slope angle) are the main drivers at small scales (e.g. 1 km). The aridity index varied between 0.24 and 10.95 across the state of Victoria. The effect of aridity on vegetation was apparent at local scales through systematic variations in tree-height along rainfall gradients and across aspects with different levels of exposure to solar radiation.

Paired Eucalyptus forest catchment study of prescribed fire effects on suspended sediment and nutrient exports in south-eastern Australia

The effect of prescribed fire on suspended sediment and nutrient exports was investigated in two small Eucalyptus forest catchments in south-eastern Australia. In 2005, a patchy, mostly low-severity prescribed fire was applied to both catchments, followed in 2006 by a second burn applied to riparian areas of one catchment, with the other catchment utilised as a control for this burn. Historic pre-fire weekly stream water sampling was combined with post-fire weekly and storm-based sampling to quantify the effect of the fires. The 2005 fire resulted in a significant difference (P = 0.000) in suspended sediment concentrations compared to pre-fire data and generated peak study period suspended sediment (11.5 kg ha–1 year–1) and total phosphorous (0.016 kg ha–1 year–1) exports under near-average rainfall. However, peak suspended sediment exports only slightly exceeded the average annual load from a nearby undisturbed catchment. Well-below-average rainfall in 2006 resulted in lower exports after this burn compared with the 2005 fire. The results highlighted the importance of hydrological conditions for suspended sediment and nutrient exports within the first 12–18 months after prescribed fires, beyond which generally rapid surface vegetation recovery is likely to mitigate any burns effects.