Christopher Bowdler

Inflation Adjustment and Labour Market Structures: Evidence from a Multi-Country Study

An empirical analysis of the impact of labour market structures on the response of inflation to macroeconomic shocks is presented. Results based on a 20 country panel show that if labour market coordination is high, the effect on inflation of movements in unemployment, import prices, tax rates and productivity is dampened, both on impact and dynamically. In contrast, monopoly power in labour supply, measured by the percentage unionisation of the workforce, appears to amplify the response of inflation to its reduced form determinants. These findings are attributed to the behaviour of wages following movements in demand- and supply-side conditions.

The open economy consequences of U.S. monetary policy

We characterize the channels by which a failure to distinguish intended/unintended and anticipated/unanticipated monetary policy may lead to attenuation bias in monetary policys open economy effects. Using a U.S. monetary policy measure which isolates the intended and unanticipated component of federal funds rate changes, we quantify the magnitude of the attenuation bias for the exchange rate and foreign variables, finding it to be substantial. The exchange rate appreciation following a monetary contraction is up to 4 times larger than a recursively-identified VAR estimate. There is stronger evidence of foreign interest rate pass-through. The expenditure-reducing effects of a U.S. monetary policy contraction dominate any expenditure-switching effects, leading to a positive conditional correlation of international outputs and prices.

Trade Openness and Inflation Episodes in the OECD

Boschen and Weise (Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2003) model the probability of a large upturn in inflation in the OECD (an inflation start).We extend their work to consider the impact of trade openness on the probability of such an event. The main finding is that increased openness reduces the probability of an inflation start, both directly, and indirectly through restricting the role of general elections in triggering inflation starts.

Heterogeneous Bank Lending Responses to Monetary Policy: New Evidence from a Real-Time Identification

We present new evidence on how heterogeneity in banks interacts with monetary policy changes to impact bank lending. Using an exogenous policy measure identified from narratives on FOMC intentions and real-time economic forecasts, we find much greater heterogeneity in U.S. bank lending responses than that found in previous research based on realized federal funds rate changes. Our findings suggest that studies using realized monetary policy changes confound the monetary policy’s effects with those of changes in expected macrofundamentals. We also extend Romer and Romer (2004)’s identification scheme, and expand the time and balance sheet coverage of the U.S. banking sample.