Christopher J. Jarchow

Spatial occupancy models for predicting metapopulation dynamics and viability following reintroduction

Summary 1. The reintroduction of a species into its historic range is a critical component of conservation programmes designed to restore extirpated metapopulations. However, many reintroduction efforts fail, and the lack of rigorous monitoring programmes and statistical models have prevented a general understanding of the factors affecting metapopulation viability following reintroduction. 2. Spatially explicit metapopulation theory provides the basis for understanding the dynamics of fragmented populations linked by dispersal, but the theory has rarely been used to guide reintroduction programmes because most spatial metapopulation models require presence– absence data from every site in the network, and they do not allow for observation error such as imperfect detection. 3. We develop a spatial occupancy model that relaxes these restrictive assumptions and allows for inference about metapopulation extinction risk and connectivity. We demonstrate the utility of the model using six years of data on the Chiricahua leopard frog Lithobates chiricahuensis, a threatened desert-breeding amphibian that was reintroduced to a network of sites in Arizona USA in 2003. 4. Our results indicate that the model can generate precise predictions of extinction risk and produce connectivity maps that can guide conservation efforts following reintroduction. In the case of L. chiricahuensis, many sites were functionally isolated, and 82% of sites were characterized by intermittent water availability and high local extinction probabilities (0� 84, 95% CI: 0� 64–0� 99). However, under the current hydrological conditions and spatial arrangement of sites, the risk of metapopulation extinction is estimated to be <3% over a 50-year time horizon. 5. Low metapopulation extinction risk appears to result from the high dispersal capability of the species, the high density of sites in the region and the existence of predator-free permanent wetlands with low local extinction probabilities. Should management be required, extinction risk can be reduced by either increasing the hydroperiod of existing sites or by creating new sites to increase connectivity. 6. Synthesis and applications. This work demonstrates how spatio-temporal statistical models based on ecological theory can be applied to forecast the outcomes of conservation actions such as reintroduction. Our spatial occupancy model should be particularly useful when management agencies lack the funds to collect intensive individual-level data.

Tracing Genetic Lineages of Captive Desert Tortoises in Arizona

Abstract We genotyped 180 captive desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) from Kingman (n  =  45), Phoenix (n  =  113), and Tucson (n  =  22), Arizona, USA, to determine if the genetic lineage of captives is associated with that of wild tortoises in the local area (Sonoran Desert). We tested all samples for 16 short tandem repeats and sequenced 1,109 base pairs of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). To determine genetic origin, we performed assignment tests against a reference database of 997 desert tortoise samples collected throughout the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts. We found that >40% of our Arizona captive samples were genetically of Mojave Desert or hybrid origin, with the percentage of individuals exhibiting the Mojave genotype increasing as the sample locations approached the California, USA, border. In Phoenix, 11.5% were Sonoran–Mojave crosses, and 8.8% were hybrids between desert tortoise and Texas tortoise (G. berlandieri). Our findings present many potential implications for wild tortoises in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona. Escaped or released captive tortoises with Mojave or hybrid genotypes have the potential to affect the genetic composition of Sonoran wild populations. Genotyping captive desert tortoises could be used to inform the adoption process, and thereby provide additional protection to native desert-tortoise populations in Arizona.

Modeling Habitat Connectivity to Inform Reintroductions: A Case Study with the Chiricahua Leopard Frog

Abstract Managing species with intensive tools such as reintroduction may focus on single sites or entire landscapes. For vagile species, long-term persistence will require colonization and establishment in neighboring habitats. Therefore, both suitable colonization sites and suitable dispersal corridors between sites are required. Assessment of landscapes for both requirements can contribute to ranking and selection of reintroduction areas, thereby improving management success. Following eradication of invasive American Bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus) from most of Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR; Arizona, United States), larval Chiricahua Leopard Frogs (Lithobates chiricahuensis) from a private pond were reintroduced into three stock ponds. Populations became established at all three reintroduction sites followed by colonization of neighboring ponds in subsequent years. Our aim was to better understand colonization patterns by the federally threatened L. chiricahuensis which could help inform other reintroduction efforts. We assessed the influence of four landscape features on colonization. Using surveys from 2007 and information about the landscape, we developed a habitat connectivity model, based on electrical circuit theory, that identified potential dispersal corridors after explicitly accounting for imperfect detection of frogs. Landscape features provided little insight into why some sites were colonized and others were not, results that are likely because of the uniformity of the BANWR landscape. While corridor modeling may be effective in more-complex landscapes, our results suggest focusing on local habitat will be more useful at BANWR. We also illustrate that existing data, even when limited in spatial or temporal resolution, can provide information useful in formulating management actions.

NDVI, scale invariance and the modifiable areal unit problem : An assessment of vegetation in the Adelaide Parklands

This research addresses the question as to whether or not the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is scale invariant (i.e. constant over spatial aggregation) for pure pixels of urban vegetation. It has been long recognized that there are issues related to the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) pertaining to indices such as NDVI and images at varying spatial resolutions. These issues are relevant to using NDVI values in spatial analyses. We compare two different methods of calculation of a mean NDVI: 1) using pixel values of NDVI within feature/object boundaries and 2) first calculating the mean red and mean near-infrared across all feature pixels and then calculating NDVI. We explore the nature and magnitude of these differences for images taken from two sensors, a 1.24m resolution WorldView-3 and a 0.1m resolution digital aerial image. We apply these methods over an urban park located in the Adelaide Parklands of South Australia. We demonstrate that the MAUP is not an issue for calculation of NDVI within a sensor for pure urban vegetation pixels. This may prove useful for future rule-based monitoring of the ecosystem functioning of green infrastructure.

Application and Comparison of the MODIS-Derived Enhanced Vegetation Index to VIIRS, Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI Platforms: A Case Study in the Arid Colorado River Delta, Mexico

The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) is a key Earth science parameter used to assess vegetation, originally developed and calibrated for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. With the impending decommissioning of the MODIS sensors by the year 2020/2022, alternative platforms will need to be used to estimate EVI. We compared Landsat 5 (2000–2011), 8 (2013–2016) and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS; 2013–2016) to MODIS EVI (2000–2016) over a 420,083-ha area of the arid lower Colorado River Delta in Mexico. Over large areas with mixed land cover or agricultural fields, we found high correspondence between Landsat and MODIS EVI (R2 = 0.93 for the entire area studied and 0.97 for agricultural fields), but the relationship was weak over bare soil (R2 = 0.27) and riparian vegetation (R2 = 0.48). The correlation between MODIS and Landsat EVI was higher over large, homogeneous areas and was generally lower in narrow riparian areas. VIIRS and MODIS EVI were highly similar (R2 = 0.99 for the entire area studied) and did not show the same decrease in performance in smaller, narrower regions as Landsat. Landsat and VIIRS provide EVI estimates of similar quality and characteristics to MODIS, but scale, seasonality and land cover type(s) should be considered before implementing Landsat EVI in a particular area.

Survival of the Endangered Pima Pineapple Cactus: Does Clearing Before Prescribed Fire Alter Survival Postfire?

Abstract Federal land managers and ranchers often use prescribed fire as a tool to reduce invading woody plants within desert grasslands of the arid southwestern United States. Managers must evaluate the threat of the burn toward the health and survival of plants of concern including how preemptive clearing before prescribed fire might benefit these species. One example is the endangered Pima pineapple cactus (Coryphantha scheeri var. robustispina), a small hemispheric cactus of desert scrublands and grasslands of south-central Arizona and northern Sonora, Mexico. In 2014, we examined survival of Pima pineapple cactus documented in 2009 or 2010 within grasslands of Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in Arizona. Of the 72 sites observed, 35 had no burn after documentation and 37 experienced prescribed fire. Refuge staff removed vegetation between 0.3 and 3.0 m from the cactus preburn. We found that Pima pineapple cacti in areas subjected to prescribed fire and with preemptive clearing had the same survival statistically as cacti from sites that were not burned.