Christopher R. Tamborini

Causal Effects of Retirement Timing on Subjective Physical and Emotional Health

OBJECTIVES This article explores the effects of the timing of retirement on subjective physical and emotional health. Using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we test 4 theory-based hypotheses about these effects-that retirements maximize health when they happen earlier, later, anytime, or on time. METHOD We employ fixed and random effects regression models with instrumental variables to estimate the short- and long-term causal effects of retirement timing on self-reported health and depressive symptoms. RESULTS Early retirements--those occurring prior to traditional and legal retirement age--dampen health. DISCUSSION Workers who begin their retirement transition before cultural and institutional timetables experience the worst health outcomes; this finding offers partial support to the psychosocial-materialist approach that emphasizes the benefits of retiring later. Continued employment after traditionally expected retirement age, however, offers no health benefits. In combination, these findings offer some support for the cultural-institutional approach but suggest that we need to modify our understanding of how cultural-institutional forces operate. Retiring too early can be problematic but no disadvantages are associated with late retirements. Raising the retirement age, therefore, could potentially reduce subjective health of retirees by expanding the group of those whose retirements would be considered early.

Response Error in Earnings An Analysis of the Survey of Income and Program Participation Matched With Administrative Data

This article examines the problem of response error in survey earnings data. Comparing workers’ earnings reports in the U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to their detailed W-2 earnings records from the Social Security Administration, we employ ordinary least squares (OLS) and quantile regression models to assess the effects of earnings determinants and demographic variables on measurement errors in 2004 SIPP earnings in terms of bias and variance. Results show that measurement errors in earnings are not classical, but mean-reverting. The directions of bias for subpopulations are not constant, but varying across levels of earnings. Highly educated workers more correctly report their earnings than less educated workers at higher earnings levels, but they tend to overreport at lower earnings levels. Black workers with high earnings underreport to a greater degree than comparable whites, while black workers with low earnings overreport to a greater degree. Some subpopulations exhibit higher variances of measurement errors than others. Blacks, Hispanics, high school dropouts, part-year employed workers, and occupation “switchers” tend to misreport—both over- and underreport—their earnings rather than unilaterally in one direction. The implications of our findings are discussed.

Marital History, Race, and Social Security Spouse and Widow Benefit Eligibility in the United States

Large-scale changes in American family structures over the past decades have important implications for the retirement experiences of women. In this study, the authors use a restricted-use file of the Marital History Module of the U.S. Census Bureaus Survey of Income and Program Participation to investigate changes in the marital histories of women aged 40 to 69 years between 1990 and 2004, with a focus on outcomes relevant for Social Security spouse and widow benefit eligibility. Multinomial and binary logistic regression analyses show significant changes in womens marital patterns since 1990, with more substantial shifts occurring among recent cohorts. Due to downward trends in marriage, the authors find a modest decline in Social Security spouse and widow benefit eligibility in 2004, particularly among Black women born toward the end of the baby boom generation.

Field of Study in College and Lifetime Earnings in the United States

Our understanding about the relationship between education and lifetime earnings often neglects differences by field of study. Utilizing data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal earnings records based on administrative tax information, we investigate the trajectories of annual earnings following the same individuals over 20 years and then estimate the long-term effects of field of study on earnings for U.S. men and women. Our results provide new evidence revealing large lifetime earnings gaps across fields of study. We show important differences in individuals’ earnings trajectories across different stages of the work life by field of study. In addition, the gaps in 40-year (i.e., ages 20 to 59) median lifetime earnings among college graduates by field of study are larger, in many instances, than the median gap between high school graduates and college graduates overall. We also find significant variation among graduate degree holders. Our results uncover important similarities and differences between men and women with regard to the long-term earnings differentials associated with field of study. In general, these findings underscore field of study as a critical dimension of horizontal stratification in educational attainment.

Education and Lifetime Earnings in the United States

Differences in lifetime earnings by educational attainment have been of great research and policy interest. Although a large literature examines earnings differences by educational attainment, research on lifetime earnings—which refers to total accumulated earnings from entry into the labor market until retirement—remains limited because of the paucity of adequate data. Using data that match respondents in the Survey of Income and Program Participation to their longitudinal tax earnings as recorded by the Social Security Administration, we estimate the 50-year work career effects of education on lifetime earnings for men and women. By overcoming the purely synthetic cohort approach, our results provide a more realistic appraisal of actual patterns of lifetime earnings. Detailed estimates are provided for gross lifetime earnings by education; net lifetime earnings after controlling for covariates associated with the probability of obtaining a bachelor’s degree; and the net present 50-year lifetime value of education at age 20. In addition, we provide estimates that include individuals with zero earnings and disability. We also assess the adequacy of the purely synthetic cohort approach, which uses age differences in earnings observed in cross-sectional surveys to approximate lifetime earnings. Overall, our results confirm the persistent positive effects of higher education on earnings over different stages of the work career and over a lifetime, but also reveal notably smaller net effects on lifetime earnings compared with previously reported estimates. We discuss the implications of these and other findings.

Economic and Health Implications of Long-Term Unemployment: Earnings, Disability Benefits, and Mortality

Data from the 1984 Survey of Income and Program Participation are linked to longitudinal records from the Social Security Administration to examine the relationship between the long-term unemployment that prime-aged (ages 25-55) male workers experienced around the time of the 1980-1982 twin recessions with earnings, receipt of either Disability Insurance or Supplemental Security Income (DI-SSI) benefits, and mortality. Separate estimations are made for those who voluntarily and involuntarily left employment and the combined sample of these two groups. We find that 20 years later, long-term joblessness was associated with significantly lower earnings and higher likelihoods of the receipt of DI-SSI benefits as well as mortality.

Are Proxy Interviews Associated with Biased Earnings Reports? Marital Status and Gender Effects of Proxy

Social science findings routinely rely on proxy-reported economic data in household surveys. A typical assumption is that this information is not biased compared to self-reports, but empirical findings on the issue are mixed. Using a dataset that links workers in the 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation to their W-2 tax records, we estimate the effects of reporting status (proxy vs. self) on the magnitude and direction of measurement bias in earnings data and explore whether these effects are heterogeneous across gender and marital status. A slight downward bias in proxy-reported earnings is observed; however, these effects are associated with demographic variables. For married workers, proxies do not contribute substantial bias in earnings measurement regardless of the target respondents gender. However, for single female workers, proxy interviews are a significant source of downward bias in earnings estimates. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Lowering Social Security's Duration-of-Marriage Requirement: Distributional Effects for Future Female Retirees

A number of alternatives to Social Securitys auxiliary benefit system have been proposed in the context of changes in American family and work patterns. This article focuses on one modification therein—lowering the 10-year duration-of-marriage requirement for divorced spouses. Using a powerful microsimulation model (MINT), we examine the distributional effects of extending spouse and survivor benefit eligibility to 5- and 7-year marriages ending in divorce among female retirees in 2030, a population largely comprised of baby boomers. Results show that the options would increase benefits for a small share of female retirees, around 2 to 4%, and would not affect the vast majority of low-income divorced older women. However, of those affected, the options would substantially increase benefits and lower incidence of poverty and near poor. Low-income divorced retirees with marriages between 5 and 9 years in length and a deceased former spouse face the greatest potential gains.

Work Disability among Women: The Role of Divorce in a Retrospective Cohort Study.

We assess how divorce through midlife affects the subsequent probability of work-limiting health among U.S. women. Using retrospective marital and work disability histories from the Survey of Income and Program Participation matched to Social Security earnings records, we identify women whose first marriage dissolved between 1975 and 1984 (n = 1,214) and women who remain continuously married (n = 3,394). Probit and propensity score matching models examine the cumulative probability of a work disability over a 20-year follow-up period. We find that divorce is associated with a significantly higher cumulative probability of a work disability, controlling for a range of factors. This association is strongest among divorced women who do not remarry. No consistent relationships are observed among divorced women who remarry and remained married. We find that economic hardship, work history, and selection into divorce influence, but do not substantially alter, the lasting impact of divorce on work-limiting health.

The Long-Term Health Implications of Marital Disruption: Divorce, Work Limits, and Social Security Disability Benefits Among Men.

We provide new evidence on the long-term impact of divorce on work disability among U.S. men. Using data from the 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation linked to U.S. Social Security Administration records, we assess the relationship between divorce and subsequent self-reports of work limitations and the receipt of federal disability benefits. The examination of self-reports and administrative records of medically qualified benefits provides dual confirmation of key relationships. We compare men who experienced a marital dissolution between 1975 and 1984 with continuously married men for 20 years following divorce using fixed-effects and propensity score matching models, and choose a sample to help control for selection into divorce. On average, we find that divorce is not associated with an increased probability of self-reported work limitations or receipt of disability benefits over the long run. However, among those who do not remarry, we do find that divorce increases men’s long-term probability of both self-reported work limitations and federal disability benefit receipt. Lack of marital resources may drive this relationship. Alternative estimates that do not control for selection into divorce demonstrate that selection bias can substantially alter findings regarding the relationship between marital status changes and subsequent health.