Christos D. Maravelias

The Alarming Decline of Mediterranean Fish Stocks

In recent years, fisheries management has succeeded in stabilizing and even improving the state of many global fisheries resources [1-5]. This is particularly evident in areas where stocks are exploited in compliance with scientific advice and strong institutional structures are in place [1, 5]. In Europe, the well-managed northeast (NE) Atlantic fish stocks have been recovering in response to decreasing fishing pressure over the past decade [3-6], albeit with a long way to go for a universal stock rebuild [3, 7]. Meanwhile, little is known about the temporal development of the European Mediterranean stocks, whose management relies on input controls that are often poorly enforced. Here, we perform a meta-analysis of 42 European Mediterranean stocks of nine species in 1990-2010, showing that exploitation rate has been steadily increasing, selectivity (proportional exploitation of juveniles) has been deteriorating, and stocks have been shrinking. We implement species-specific simulation models to quantify changes in exploitation rate and selectivity that would maximize long-term yields and halt stock depletion. We show that stocks would be more resilient to fishing and produce higher long-term yields if harvested a few years after maturation because current selectivity is far from optimal, especially for demersal stocks. The European Common Fisheries Policy that has assisted in improving the state of NE Atlantic fish stocks in the past 10 years has failed to deliver similar results for Mediterranean stocks managed under the same policy. Limiting juvenile exploitation, advancing management plans, and strengthening compliance, control, and enforcement could promote fisheries sustainability in the Mediterranean.

Bathymetric distribution of demersal fish in the Aegean and Ionian Seas based on generalized additive modeling

Good knowledge of the spatial distribution of fish is critical to stock assessment and successful fisheries management. Depth is often the main gradient along which faunal changes occur when analyzing shelf and upper slope assemblages, and thus knowledge of the bathymetric distribution of fish species is of great importance. The depth distribution of 16 fish species (Chelidonichthys lucernus, Helicolenus dactylopterus, Hoplostethus mediterraneus, Lepidorhombus boscii, Lophius budegassa, Merlangius merlangus, Merluccius merluccius, Micromesistius poutassou, Mullus barbatus, Mullus surmuletus, Pagellus erythrinus, Peristedion cataphractum, Phycis blennoides, Serranus cabrilla, Trigla lyra, and Trisopterus minutus) of the Aegean and the Ionian Seas was evaluated by analyzing experimental bottom trawl data, using generalized additive modeling (GAM) techniques. A variety of bathymetric distribution patterns was observed. The main bathymetric zone of each species was defined based on the modeled relative density. Specifically, the lower and upper limits of the main bathymetric zone of each species were defined as the depths where the estimated relative density of the species becomes less than 1% of the maximum. This definition is proposed as a better and more informative alternative than reporting the minimum and maximum depths of encounter.

Modelling Spatio-Temporal Effects of Environment on Atlantic Herring, Clupea harengus

Trends in mean abundance of North Sea Atlantic herring, Clupea harengus, over the period of 1992–1995, were modelled as a function of spatial location and ocean environmental conditions using generalized additive models (GAM). In all four years, the average herring abundance was found to be highest in latitudes around 60.5°N, and decreased with increasing latitude. The thermocline depth had a significant effect on prespawning herring abundance both directly, as a main effect, and indirectly, through its interactive effect with the temperature at 60 m. Average herring abundance was highest in areas having deeper thermocline depths (up to 45 m) and temperatures at 60 m between 9 and 11°C. Prespawning herring abundance was greater in areas of cooler surface waters in the south than in the north. Well-mixed waters and transition zones between frontal and stratified areas having sea surface temperatures mainly between 11 and 12°C and to a lesser extent between 13 and 14°C were associated with the highest herring abundance. Herring appeared to avoid the cold bottom waters in summer. Multiyear GAM analysis revealed consistent environmental preferenda of herring and affirmed further a significant decrease in herring abundance. As herring numbers declined, the population aggregated in the most preferred areas. The inter-relationships of herring and environmental factors across the study period, were similar in their structure and significance, suggesting that preferred areas for location of herring can be reasonably predicted.

Modeling and forecasting pelagic fish production using univariate and multivariate ARIMA models

Univariate and multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to model and forecast the monthly pelagic production of fish species in the Mediterranean Sea during 1990–2005. Autocorrelation (AC) and partial autocorrelation (PAC) functions were estimated, which led to the identification and construction of seasonal ARIMA models, suitable in explaining the time series and forecasting the future catch per unit of effort (CPUE) values. Univariate and multivariate ARIMA models satisfactorily predicted the total pelagic fish production and the production of anchovy, sardine, and horse mackerel. The univariate ARIMA models demonstrated a good perpormance in terms of explained variability and predicting power. The current findings revealed a strong autoregressive character providing relatively high R2 and satisfactory forecasts that were close to the recorded CPUE values. The present results also indicated that the multivariate ARIMA outperformed the univariate ARIMA models in terms of fitting accuracy. The opposite was evidenced when testing the forecasting accuracy of the two methods, where the univariate ARIMA models overall performed better than the multivariate models. The observed seasonal pattern in the monthly production series was attributed to the intrinsic nature of the pelagic fishery. As anchovy, sardine, and horse mackerel represent main target species in the Mediterranean pelagic fishery, the findings of the present study provided direct support for the potential use of accurate forecasts in decision making and fisheries management in the Mediterranean Sea.

Spatial distribution of herring in the orkney/shetland area (northern north sea): A geostatistical analysis

Abstract Geostatistical methodology was used to analyse the structure and describe the spatial patterns of North Sea herring ( Clupea harengus L.), using data from the 1992 ICES (Division IVa) acoustic survey. Three different scales of spatial structures were identified: an unresolved small-scale variability, which accounted for 48% of the total variance, and two structure components, the first being a meso-scale of ≈9 nmi (nautical miles) (≈30%) and the second a large-scale of ≈17 nmi (22%). Geostatistical analysis permitted the determination of spatial density gradients as well as patch sizes (range from 9 to 17 nmi). The use of the truncated data and the robust variogram on the raw data provided additional information for the structure. The utilization of this information in the variographic analysis resulted in better estimations. The best unbiased predictor was used to objectively map the herring population distribution by kriging. The kriging estimates were better with interpolation of a large number of points. Herring tended to aggregate mainly in meso-scale patches with a diameter of 9 nmi and to a lesser extent in large-scale patches of 17 nmi diameter. Environmental factors (depth, salinity and temperature) partly explained the spatial distribution of herring, despite the absence of a trend in the variogram structure. The study demonstrates the existence of spatial correlation and an objective way of optimal mapping of the population. Geostatistics provided additional information on herring spatial organization which is important to understand the behaviour of the species and to study its relationship with the environment.

Fishing capacity and capacity utilization of purse seiners using data envelopment analysis

The existence of excessive fishing capacity is globally recognized by resource managers as a major problem for fisheries, and it is responsible for the degradation of fishery resources and for significant economic waste. Estimates of fishing capacity and capacity utilization may provide helpful tools in designing an effective capacity management plan for Mediterrane an fisheries. In this study, the fishing capacity and capacity utilization of eastern Mediterranean purse seiners were assessed using data envelopment analysis (DEA). Estimates were made for individual vessels based on the level of inputs used and outputs produced, relative to other vessels operating under similar conditions. Results indicated similar excess capacity for target species, which is in accordance with how the fishery operated. The 24–40-m fleet segment was found to be more efficient than the 12–24-m fleet segment in terms of landing weights. It was evidenced that purse seiners could have increased their catch during 2000–2005 by approximately 23% by increasing the variable inputs, for example days fished. Conversely, a fleet of smaller size could have achieved the reported catch. Under the condition that the remaining vessels will be fully utilized, a proportional decrease in the fleet size might seem a rational management measure towards reducing overexploitation and attaining sustainable fisheries in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Fishing strategy choices of purse seines in the Mediterranean: implications for management

An observer’s sampling scheme, that employed fisheries scientists onboard fleet vessels was used to examine temporal fishing tactics and strategies affecting catches of the purse seine fishery in the Mediterranean. The month, water depth and the fishers’ behavior were found to have an effect on total and Trachurus spp. retained catches, with fishers’ behavior explaining the largest percentage of the data variation. The distance of the fishing ground from port and the market price modulated both the retained catches and the fishing location choice. Results confirmed that fishers while in a specific fishing ground developed strategies that would allow them to retain, and thus land, the best possible combination of landings x market value. The current findings also revealed that, when constrained by physical and economic conditions, fishers preferred to minimise risk rather than maximize landings. The observed major switches in fishing strategy were attributed to fishers’ risk attitude response towards higher profitability. As the Mediterranean fishery system is mainly based on control effort and technical measures regimes, the current findings are discussed in the light of the need to consider additional information to management plans and decisions.

Once upon a Time in the Mediterranean Long Term Trends of Mediterranean Fisheries Resources based on Fishers' Traditional Ecological Knowledge

We investigate long-term changes in the Mediterranean marine resources driving the trawl fisheries by analysing fishers’ perceptions (Traditional Ecological Knowledge, TEK) throughout the Mediterranean Sea during the last 80 years. To this end, we conducted an extended set of interviews with experienced fishers that enabled us to classify species (or taxa) as ‘decreasing’ or ‘increasing’ both in terms of abundance, as well as average size in the catch. The aspect that most clearly emerged in all the investigated areas over time was the notable increase of fishing capacity indicators, such as engine power and fishing depth range. Atlantic mackerel, poor cod, scorpionfishes, striped seabream, and John Dory demonstrated a decreasing trend in the fishers’ perceived abundance, while Mediterranean parrotfish, common pandora, cuttlefish, blue and red shrimp, and mullets gave indications of an increasing temporal trend. Although, as a rule, trawler captains did not report any cataclysmic changes (e.g. extinctions), when they were invited to estimate total catches, a clear decreasing pattern emerged; this being a notable finding taking into account the steep escalation of fishing efficiency during the past century. The overall deteriorating status of stocks in most Mediterranean regions calls for responsible management and design of rebuilding plans. This should include historical information accounting for past exploitation patterns that could help defining a baseline of fish abundance prior to heavy industrial fisheries exploitation.

Macroscale factors affecting diatom abundance: a synergistic use of Continuous Plankton Recorder and satellite remote sensing data

Diatoms exist in almost every aquatic regime; they are responsible for ∼20% of global carbon fixation and ∼25% of global primary production, and are regarded as a key food for copepods, which are subsequently consumed by larger predators such as fish and marine mammals. A decreasing abundance and a vulnerability to climatic change in the North Atlantic Ocean have been reported in the literature. In the present work, a data matrix composed of concurrent satellite remote sensing and Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) in situ measurements was collated for the same spatial and temporal coverage in the Northeast Atlantic. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were applied to recognize and learn the complex non-monotonic and non-linear relationships between diatom abundance and spatiotemporal environmental factors. Because of their ability to mimic non-linear systems, ANNs proved far more effective in modelling the diatom distribution in the marine ecosystem. The results of this study reveal that diatoms have a regular seasonal cycle, with their abundance most strongly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) and light intensity. The models indicate that extreme positive SSTs decrease diatom abundances regardless of other climatic conditions. These results provide information on the ecology of diatoms that may advance our understanding of the potential response of diatoms to climatic change.

Resilience and regime shifts in a marine biodiversity hotspot

Complex natural systems, spanning from individuals and populations to ecosystems and social-ecological systems, often exhibit abrupt reorganizations in response to changing stressors, known as regime shifts or critical transitions. Theory suggests that such systems feature folded stability landscapes with fluctuating resilience, fold-bifurcations, and alternate basins of attraction. However, the implementation of such features to elucidate response mechanisms in an empirical context is scarce, due to the lack of generic approaches to quantify resilience dynamics in individual natural systems. Here, we introduce an Integrated Resilience Assessment (IRA) framework: a three-step analytical process to assess resilience and construct stability landscapes of empirical systems. The proposed framework involves a multivariate analysis to estimate holistic system indicator variables, non-additive modelling to estimate alternate attractors, and a quantitative resilience assessment to scale stability landscapes. We implement this framework to investigate the temporal development of the Mediterranean marine communities in response to sea warming during 1985–2013, using fisheries landings data. Our analysis revealed a nonlinear tropicalisation of the Mediterranean Sea, expressed as abrupt shifts to regimes dominated by thermophilic species. The approach exemplified here for the Mediterranean Sea, revealing previously unknown resilience dynamics driven by climate forcing, can elucidate resilience and shifts in other complex systems.