Christos Kollias

Is there a Greek‐Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests†

Greece and Turkey are both members of NATO and are two of the principal players in the Balkan region. Their respective defence burdens (i.e. the share of military expenditure to GDP) are the highest in NATO. Their bilateral relations are marred by serious friction and conflict of interest and have on a number of occasions come close to an armed confrontation. Their strategic interaction and mutual weapons build-up has recently attracted the attention of researchers in the field testing the hypothesis of a Greek-Turkish arms race with conflicting results. This paper, using cointegration and causality tests, finds evidence of a systematic armaments competition between the two countries provided that a defence policy regime shift estimated to occur in 1985 is explicitly taken into consideration. This policy regime change is associated with the stagnation of defence spending in Greece owing to the gradual deterioration of Greek public finances over the last decade.

Defence spending and growth in turkey 1954-1993: A causal analysis

This paper investigates the causality issue between military expenditure and growth in the case of Turkey, a strategically located developing country, for the period 1954-1993. Results reported herein reveal the absence of any causal ordering between the variables in question.

Defence Spending and Growth in Cyprus: A Causal Analysis

The causal relationship between economic growth and defence spending has attracted considerable attention and has been the subject of many empirical studies. Hoping to contribute to the existing pool of literature, this paper examines the relationship between military expenditure and growth in the case of Cyprus, a small island economy, for the period 1964–99. The findings reported suggest the presence of bi‐directional instantaneous causality between defence spending and economic growth.

Tax and spend or spend and tax? Empirical evidence from Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland

The paper examines empirically the relationship between government revenues and expenditures in four European countries: Greece, Spain, Ireland, and Portugal. In relative terms all four may be considered as the poorest members of the European Union. Yet, they present a fairly diverse picture as far as their macroeconomic performance and fiscal position is concerned. The empirical findings from cointegration and causality tests that are reported here indicate that in the case of Greece and Ireland tax and spending decisions are taken simultaneously by the fiscal authority, the tax-and-spend hypothesis is supported in the case of Spain, while absence of any causal ordering between government expenditure and tax revenues has been established for Portugal.

Country survey VII: Military spending in Greece

Greece is one of the poorest members of the European Union, yet its defence burden is the highest in Europe and NATO. At around 5.6% of GDP in 1994 it is twice the average NATO and European Union burden. In terms of the human and material resources devoted to defence yearly Greece is in comparative terms the most militarised country in Europe. The purpose of this paper is to examine military spending in Greece. It begins with a brief survey of the Greek economy and its development as it relates to defence. The determinants of Greek military spending are then modelled and analysed. The causes of military spending appear to be primarily regional rivalries and conflicts. In particular the ongoing dispute with Turkey is the main external security determinant of defence spending in Greece. The supply of defence inputs is then examined with reference to equipment procurement and indigenous arms production.

Domestic political and external security determinants of the demand for greek military expenditure

By European Union and NATO standards, Greece consistently allocates substantial human and material resources to defence. The Greek defence burden (i.e. military expenditure as a share of GDP) has invariably been appreciably higher than the EU and NATO averages. The paper applies an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to present cointegrated estimates of the demand function for Greek military expenditure, in which domestic political factors and external security determinants are incorporated. Our empirical findings suggest that Greek defence spending over the period 1960-1998 has been influenced by both external security concerns, namely Turkey, as well as changes in the domestic political scene.

External security determinants of Greek military expenditure: An empirical investigation using Neural networks

Greece has regularly ranked as the country with the highest defence burden in NATO and the European Union. Over the past decades she has allocated an averatge 6% of GDP to defence yearly. This study using neural networks examines the external security determinants of Greek military expenditure in the context of the ongoing Greek‐Turkish conflict.

Military expenditure and government debt in greece: Some preliminary empirical findings*

Greece has over the years allocated substantial human and material resources to defence. Its defence burden (i.e. military expenditure as a share of GDP) has invariably been substantially higher than the EU and NATO averages. Furthermore, during the post-bipolar period, when the defence budgets of most countries shrunk, Greek defence spending grew in real terms. This paper contributes to the existing literature on Greek defence spending and its effects by empirically estimating the impact of such expenditures on the countrys fiscal situation during the period 1960–2001 something that has largely been ignored in the relevant literature. In particular, it focuses on the effects of military spending on government debt and its two components: internal and external debt. The empirical findings reported here suggest that central government debt and, in particular, external debt has been adversely influenced by military expenditure but also by the domestic political cycle.

Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race? Some further empirical results from causality tests

The Greek-Turkish rivalry has attracted considerable attention in the defence economics literature. Given the tense bilateral relations between the two countries, a number of studies have addressed the issue of a Greek-Turkish arms race. The empirical results that have been reported vary depending on the methodology used and time period covered. Unidirectional, bi-directional as well as no causality between Greek and Turkish military expenditures have been reported. This paper contributes to the Greek-Turkish arms race literature using the causality methodology employed by Hendry and Ericsson (1991) and Davidson et al. (1978). The time period covered is 1950-1999 and the results reported here appear to suggest the presence of bi-directional causality and therefore an armaments race between Greece and Turkey.

A survey of the Greek defence industry

Greece yearly allocates a substantial part of its national income to defence and its defence burden is the highest among EU and NATO members. To meet the demand for military hardware it relies almost exclusively on imports, ranking among the largest conventional arms importers in the world. Despite efforts to develop a domestic defence industry, indigenous production only covers a limited proportion of Greeces demand for military equipment. The majority of weapons, including sophisticated and technologically advanced systems, are imported from the major arms producers. This paper critically surveys the Greek defence industrial base, its structure and recent performance, and assesses its future options.