Chun-Ho Cho

Effects of heat waves on daily excess mortality in 14 Korean cities during the past 20 years (1991–2010): an application of the spatial synoptic classification approach

The aims of this study are to explore the “offensive” summer weather types classified under the spatial synoptic classification (SSC) system and to evaluate their impacts on excess mortality in 14 Korean cities. All-cause deaths per day for the entire population were examined over the summer months (May–September) of 1991–2010. Daily deaths were standardized to account for long-term trends of subcycles (annual, seasonal, and weekly) at the mid-latitudes. In addition, a mortality prediction model was constructed through multiple stepwise regression to develop a heat–health warning system based on synoptic climatology. The result showed that dry tropical (DT) days during early summer caused excess mortality due to non-acclimatization by inhabitants, and moist tropical (MT) plus and double plus resulted in greater spikes of excess mortality due to extremely hot and humid conditions. Among the 14 Korean cities, highly excess mortality for the elderly was observed in Incheon (23.2%, 95%CI 5.6), Seoul (15.8%, 95%CI 2.6), and Jeonju (15.8%, 95%CI 4.6). No time lag effect was observed, and excess mortality gradually increased with time and hot weather simultaneously. The model showed weak performance as its predictions were underestimated for the validation period (2011–2015). Nevertheless, the results clearly revealed the efficiency of relative and multiple-variable approaches better than absolute and single-variable approaches. The results indicate the potential of the SSC as a suitable system for investigating heat vulnerability in South Korea, where hot summers could be a significant risk factor.

Characteristics of Snow-cell Formation Processes over the Southern Part of Yellow Sea on 4 February 2004 using the KEOP Intensive Observation Data

The formation mechanism of the snow cells of the Yellow Sea associated with snowfall over the southwestern part of Korea on 4 February, 2004 has been investigated using special upper-air sounding and radar data obtained for the KEOP(Korea Enhanced Observing Period) Intensive Observing Period(IOP). Results show that the types of snow cells for the selected period are classified into L(Longitudinal)-mode, Low-level convergence, and T(Transverse)-mode with their evolution from L-mode to T-mode. In particular, the existence of low-level warm and humid layer associated with temporally southwesterly inflow for about 4 hours provides a favorable condition in forming the T-mode snow cells. The vertical depth of the T-mode snow cells is deeper than that of L-mode ones due to the southeastward penetration of cold and dry air into relatively warm and humid air. In addition, it is found that wind shear vector between 1000 hPa and 600 hPa is one of the factors which control the orientation of snow cells in formation embedded into the snowbands for the both modes.