Ciriaco Valdez-Flores

A survey of preventive maintenance models for stochastically deteriorating single‐unit systems

A survey of the research done on preventive maintenance is presented. The scope of the present survey is on the research published after the 1976 paper by Pierskalla and Voelker [98]. This article includes optimization models for repair, replacement, and inspection of systems subject to stochastic deterioration. A classification scheme is used that categorizes recent research into inspection models, minimal repair models, shock models, or miscellaneous replacement models.

Consideration of Rat Chronic Progressive Nephropathy in Regulatory Evaluations for Carcinogenicity

Chronic progressive nephropathy (CPN) is a spontaneous renal disease of rats which can be a serious confounder in toxicology studies. It is a progressive disease with known physiological factors that modify disease progression, such as high dietary protein. The weight of evidence supports an absence of a renal counterpart in humans. There is extensive evidence that advanced CPN, particularly end-stage kidney, is a risk factor for development of a background incidence of atypical tubule hyperplasia and renal tubule tumors (RTT). The likely cause underlying this association with tubule neoplasia is the long-term increased tubule cell proliferation that occurs throughout CPN progression. As a variety of chemicals are able to exacerbate CPN, there is a potential for those exacerbating the severity up to and including end-stage kidney to cause a marginal increase in RTT and their precursor lesions. Extensive statistical analysis of National Toxicology Program studies shows a strong correlation between high-grade CPN, especially end-stage CPN, and renal tumor development. CPN as a mode of action (MOA) for rat RTT has received attention from regulatory authorities only recently. In the absence of toxic effects elsewhere, this does not constitute a carcinogenic effect of the chemical but can be addressed through a proposed MOA approach for regulatory purposes to reach a decision that RTT, developing as a result of CPN exacerbation in rats, have no relevance for human risk assessment. Guidelines are proposed for evaluation of exacerbation of CPN and RTT as a valid MOA for a given chemical.

Development of a cancer-based chronic inhalation reference value for hexavalent chromium based on a nonlinear-threshold carcinogenic assessment

The carcinogenicity of hexavalent chromium(CrVI) is of significant interest to regulatory agencies for the protection of public health and to industry. Additionally, the mode of action (MOA) and conditions under which CrVI may induce carcinogenicity (e.g., reductive capacity considerations) have recently been the subject of significant scientific debate. Epidemiological data supported by data relevant to the carcinogenic MOA support considering nonlinear-threshold carcinogenic assessments for comparison to default linear low-dose extrapolation approaches. This study reviews epidemiological studies available in the scientific literature and conducts additional statistical dose-response analyses to identify potential carcinogenic thresholds and points of departure (PODs) in the context of supportive MOA information for a nonlinear-threshold inhalation carcinogenic assessment. Dosimetric adjustments and application of appropriate uncertainty factors (total UF of 30) to the selected cumulative exposure POD results in a cancer-based chronic inhalation reference value (ReV) of 0.24 μgCrVI/m(3). This chronic ReV is 300 times higher than the 1 in 100,000 excess cancer risk air concentration of 8E-04 μg/m(3) based on USEPAs unit risk factor.

Development of an inhalation unit risk factor for hexavalent chromium

A unit risk factor (URF) was developed for hexavalent chromium (CrVI). The URF is based on excess lung cancer mortality in two key epidemiological studies of chromate production workers. The Crump et al. (2003) study concerns the Painesville, OH worker cohort, while Gibb et al. (2000) regards the Baltimore, MD cohort. A supporting assessment was also performed for a cohort from four low-dose chromate plants (Leverkusen and Uerdingen, Germany, Corpus Christi, TX, Castle Hayne, NC). For the Crump et al. (2003) study, grouped observed and expected number of lung cancer mortalities along with cumulative CrVI exposures were used to obtain the maximum likelihood estimate and asymptotic variance of the slope (β) for the linear multiplicative relative risk model using Poisson regression modeling. For the Gibb et al. (2000) study, Cox proportional hazards modeling was performed with optimal exposure lag and adjusting for the effect of covariates (e.g., smoking) to estimate β values. Life-table analyses were used to develop URFs for each of the two key studies, as well as for supporting and related studies. The two key study URFs were combined using weighting factors relevant to confidence to derive the final URF for CrVI of 2.3E-03 per μgCrVI/m(3).

An Improved Policy Iteration Algorithm for Semi-Markov Maintenance Problems

Abstract This paper uses a general maintenance problem and a new policy iteration algorithm to solve most semi-Markovian maintenance models. This algorithm decomposes the maintenance process into a deteriorating process and a sequence of replacement and repair actions so that the number of states involved in the decision process is less than the state space of the unmaintained process. Consequently, the number of equations to be solved at every iteration step can be substantially reduced. The improved policy iteration algorithm and the conventional policy iteration algorithm are compared in a set of randomly generated semi-Markov maintenance problems.

An updated inhalation unit risk factor for arsenic and inorganic arsenic compounds based on a combined analysis of epidemiology studies

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) developed an inhalation unit risk factor (URF) of 4.3E-03 per μg/m(3) for arsenic in 1984 for excess lung cancer mortality based on epidemiological studies of workers at two smelters: the Asarco smelter in Tacoma, Washington and the Anaconda smelter in Montana. Since the USEPA assessment, new studies have been published and exposure estimates were updated at the Asarco and Anaconda smelters and additional years of follow-up evaluated. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has developed an inhalation URF for lung cancer mortality from exposures to arsenic and inorganic arsenic compounds based on a newer epidemiology study of Swedish workers and the updates of the Asarco and Anaconda epidemiology studies. Using a combined analysis approach, the TCEQ weighted the individual URFs from these three epidemiology cohort studies, to calculate a final inhalation URF of 1.5E-04 per μg/m(3). In addition, the TCEQ also conducted a sensitivity analysis, in which they calculated a URF based on a type of meta-analysis, and these results compared well with the results of the combined analysis. The no significant concentration level (i.e., air concentration at 1 in 100,000 excess lung cancer mortality) is 0.067μg/m(3). This value will be used to evaluate ambient air monitoring data so the general public in Texas is protected against adverse health effects from chronic exposure to arsenic.

Quantitative cancer risk assessment based on NIOSH and UCC epidemiological data for workers exposed to ethylene oxide

The most recent epidemiological data on individual workers in the NIOSH and updated UCC occupational studies have been used to characterize the potential excess cancer risks of environmental exposure to ethylene oxide (EO). In addition to refined analyses of the separate cohorts, power has been increased by analyzing the combined cohorts. In previous SMR analyses of the separate studies and the present analyses of the updated and pooled studies of over 19,000 workers, none of the SMRs for any combination of the 12 cancer endpoints and six sub-cohorts analyzed were statistically significantly greater than one including the ones of greatest previous interest: leukemia, lymphohematopoietic tissue, lymphoid tumors, NHL, and breast cancer. In our study, no evidence of a positive cumulative exposure-response relationship was found. Fitted Cox proportional hazards models with cumulative EO exposure do not have statistically significant positive slopes. The lack of increasing trends was corroborated by categorical analyses. Cox model estimates of the concentrations corresponding to a 1-in-a-million extra environmental cancer risk are all greater than approximately 1ppb and are more than 1500-fold greater than the 0.4ppt estimate in the 2006 EPA draft IRIS risk assessment. The reasons for this difference are identified and discussed.

Comprehensive Realism's Weight-of-Evidence Based Distributional Dose-Response Characterization

Abstract Challenges to low-dose linearity and other default assumptions in cancer risk assessment and the limitations associated with NOAELs, LOAELs, and constant uncertainty factor values in the evaluation of noncancer health effects have stimulated the continued evolution of risk assessment methodologies. The increasing need for more realistic estimates of the dose-response relationship, better uncertainty characterization, and greater utilization of cost-benefit analyses have also contributed to this evolution. “Comprehensive Realism” is an emerging quantitative weight-of-evidence based risk assessment methodology for both cancer and noncancer health effects which utilizes probability distributions and decision analysis techniques to reflect more of the relevant human exposure data, more of the available and pertinent human and animal dose-response data, and the current state of knowledge about the relative plausibility of alternative dose-response analyses. A tree (like a decision tree and a probabili...

Cancer Dose‐Response Modeling of Epidemiological Data on Worker Exposures to Aldrin and Dieldrin

The paper applies classical statistical principles to yield new tools for risk assessment and makes new use of epidemiological data for human risk assessment. An extensive clinical and epidemiological study of workers engaged in the manufacturing and formulation of aldrin and dieldrin provides occupational hygiene and biological monitoring data on individual exposures over the years of employment and provides unusually accurate measures of individual lifetime average daily doses. In the cancer dose-response modeling, each worker is treated as a separate experimental unit with his own unique dose. Maximum likelihood estimates of added cancer risk are calculated for multistage, multistage-Weibull, and proportional hazards models. Distributional characterizations of added cancer risk are based on bootstrap and relative likelihood techniques. The cancer mortality data on these male workers suggest that low-dose exposures to aldrin and dieldrin do not significantly increase human cancer risk and may even decrease the human hazard rate for all types of cancer combined at low doses (e.g., 1 microgram/kg/day). The apparent hormetic effect in the best fitting dose-response models for this data set is statistically significant. The decrease in cancer risk at low doses of aldrin and dieldrin is in sharp contrast to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys upper bound on cancer potency based on mouse liver tumors. The EPAs upper bound implies that lifetime average daily doses of 0.0000625 and 0.00625 microgram/kg body weight/day would correspond to increased cancer risks of 0.000001 and 0.0001, respectively. However, the best estimate from the Pernis epidemiological data is that there is no increase in cancer risk in these workers at these doses or even at doses as large as 2 micrograms/kg/day.

PBPK-Based Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Total Chlorotriazines in Drinking Water.

The risk of human exposure to total chlorotriazines (TCT) in drinking water was evaluated using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model. Daily TCT (atrazine, deethylatrazine, deisopropylatrazine, and diaminochlorotriazine) chemographs were constructed for 17 frequently monitored community water systems (CWSs) using linear interpolation and Krieg estimates between observed TCT values. Synthetic chemographs were created using a conservative bias factor of 3 to generate intervening peaks between measured values. Drinking water consumption records from 24-h diaries were used to calculate daily exposure. Plasma TCT concentrations were updated every 30 minutes using the PBPK model output for each simulated calendar year from 2006 to 2010. Margins of exposure (MOEs) were calculated (MOE = [Human Plasma TCTPOD] ÷ [Human Plasma TCTEXP]) based on the toxicological point of departure (POD) and the drinking water-derived exposure to TCT. MOEs were determined based on 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 14, 28, or 90 days of rolling average exposures and plasma TCT Cmax, or the area under the curve (AUC). Distributions of MOE were determined and the 99.9th percentile was used for risk assessment. MOEs for all 17 CWSs were >1000 at the 99.9th percentile. The 99.9th percentile of the MOE distribution was 2.8-fold less when the 3-fold synthetic chemograph bias factor was used. MOEs were insensitive to interpolation method, the consumer’s age, the water consumption database used and the duration of time over which the rolling average plasma TCT was calculated, for up to 90 days. MOEs were sensitive to factors that modified the toxicological, or hyphenated appropriately no-observed-effects level (NOEL), including rat strain, endpoint used, method of calculating the NOEL, and the pharmacokinetics of elimination, as well as the magnitude of exposure (CWS, calendar year, and use of bias factors).