Clair J. Nixon

Government Institutional Effects on the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

The impact of government institutions on the value of improved climate forecasts is examined. Results suggest that crop insurance and earned income tax credit have little effect on the expected change in after-tax cash flows. Federal tax law has only a modest influence. As expected, the disaster program decreases the value of improved climate forecasts. With no price changes, the farm program lowers the value of the forecasts because of the acreage reduction provisions. With at least some price decreases, the farm program increases the value of climate forecasts. Here, the price supports override the acreage reduction provisions. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.

Utilising a farm‐level decision model to help prioritise future climate prediction research needs

A whole-farm-level decision model is used to examine the impact of the type of decisions producers make on the value of seasonal climate forecasts. Results suggest that precipitation forecasts directed towards crop mix and applied nitrogen level decisions would have the largest economic value. Further, the results show that the economic value of climate forecasts cannot be obtained by examining only a small set of decision types. Rather, all decision types must be modelled to value seasonal precipitation forecasts correctly. This occurs because in response to seasonal climate forecasts changes in one type of decision may override the need to change other decision types. Finally, forecasts of precipitation during the crop tasselling and grain filling stages may be more valuable than precipitation forecasts for earlier crop growth periods. Copyright

The effect of usage and size on tractor depreciation.

An econometric model was estimated to explain prices for tractors sold at auction. Tractor age, hours of use, size, and condition were statistically significant explanatory variables. Real tractor depreciation most closely approximated a sum-of-the-years digits pattern. Tractors sold at consignment and bankruptcy auctions brought a lower price than tractors sold by retiring farmers. High levels of usage did not greatly reduce tractor value, but tractors with low annual usage brought substantial premiums in the auction market.

Dynamic Aspects of the Impact of the Use of Perfect Climate Forecasts in the Corn Belt Region

A general equilibrium model is linked to a decision model to determine the impact of perfect growing season forecasts for corn produced in the Corn Belt region over a 10-yr period. Five different timing scenarios are examined to determine the effect of different orderings in the occurrence of good and bad crop years over this period. The use of the climate forecasts is shown to have both positive and negative financial and economic effects depending on the specific year within any given scenario. The expected present value of changes in net surplus (consumer plus producer surplus) varied from

The Effects of the 1980, 1981, and 1982 Tax Laws on Texas Rice Farmers

1.270 to

ENTRY INTO FARMING: THE EFFECTS OF LEASING AND LEVERAGE ON FIRM SURVIVAL

2.917 billion from the use of the perfect forecasts over different 10-yr planning horizons. Consumers are the clear winners (positive values) and producers are the losers (negative values) over the entire horizon.

An Exploration of Factors Influencing Ethical and Unethical Behavior in Negotiations

A whole farm Monte Carlo simulation model was used to simulate a typical rice farm on the Texas Gulf Coast for 10 years under the 1980, 1981, and 1982 income tax provisions. Results for this analysis indicate that the 1981 tax provisions clearly were more beneficial to farm operators than the 1980 or 1982 income tax provisions. While the 1981 and 1982 tax law changes clearly improved the cash flow of farm operators, they did not greatly improve the wealth positions of farm operators in the Texas Gulf Coast.

Taxes, Farm Programs, and Competitive Advantage for U.S. and Canadian Farmers: A Case Study

The 1979 Farm Finance Survey revealed that 42 percent of all farmers are over 55 years of age and these farmers control 48 percent of all farm assets. This implies that the ownership of about one-half of all farmland will be transferred in the next three decades.

Economic and financial simulation for small business: a discussion of the small business economic, risk, and tax simulator

The issue of ethics has received little notice in agricultural economics journals. This study utilized a survey technique to reveal the ethical attitudes among some 500 students at four Land Grant Universities. The data were analyzed using multiple regression techniques. Individuals negotiating with strangers were more willing to use questionable ethical tactics. Women, individuals who were cooperative rather than competitive in negotiation situations, and those who regularly attended religious services wer consistantly less willing to use questionable ethics in negotiation. The size of the individuals hometown and family income had no clear impact on ethical attidutes in regotiations.

OPTIMAL TRACTOR REPLACEMENT: WHAT MATTERS?

The objective of this study was to understand the impact of tax and social program policies on competitiveness in trade. A case study approach was used, comparing returns to representative wheat farms located in Montana and Alberta. The principal analytical tool was a financial simulation model. The results suggest farmers in Alberta have significant tax and social program advantages and that, for the base scenario, these advantages outweighed government farm program and production cost advantages enjoyed by the Montana farmer. Taxes and social program advantages became relatively less important with an increase in farm size.