Claire A. Montgomery

WEIGHING CONSERVATION OBJECTIVES: MAXIMUM EXPECTED COVERAGE VERSUS ENDANGERED SPECIES PROTECTION

Decision makers involved in land acquisition and protection often have mul- tiple conservation objectives and are uncertain about the occurrence of species or other features in candidate sites. Models informing decisions on selection of sites for reserves need to provide information about cost-efficient trade-offs between objectives and account for incidence uncertainty. We describe a site selection model with two important conser- vation objectives: maximize expected number of species represented, and maximize the likelihood that a subset of endangered species is represented. The model uses probabilistic species occurrence data in a linear-integer formulation solvable with commercial software. The model is illustrated using probabilistic occurrence data for 403 terrestrial vertebrates in 147 candidate sites in western Oregon, USA. The trade-offs between objectives are explicitly measured by incrementally varying the threshold probability for endangered species representation and recording the change in expected number of species represented. For instance, in the example presented here, we found that under most budget constraints, the probability of representing three endangered species can be increased from 0.00 (i.e., no guaranteed protection) to 0.90 while reducing expected species representation ;2%. However, further increasing the probability of endangered species representation from 0.90 to 0.99 results in a much larger reduction in species representation of ;14%. Although the numerical results from our analysis are specific to the species and area studied, the meth- odology is general and applicable elsewhere.

Biodiversity and Timber in the Coast Range of Oregon: Inside the Production Possibility Frontier

This study attempts to bridge the gap between studies that model cost-effective land management for single species and studies that model large sets of species or biodiversity. We estimated a production possibility frontier for biodiversity and timber production using simulated annealing for a study area in the Coast Range of Oregon. The model produced spatially explicit land management regimes over a 100-year time horizon. Current landowner objectives were then simulated and compared to cost-effective management along the production possibility frontier. The results suggest substantial potential for improving efficiency of forest land management in the study area. (JEL Q23)

Spatial-Endogenous Fire Risk and Efficient Fuel Management and Timber Harvest

This paper integrates a spatial fire-behavior model and a stochastic dynamic-optimization model to determine the optimal spatial pattern of fuel management and timber harvest. Each year’s fire season causes the loss of forest values and lives in the western United States. We use a multi-plot analysis and incorporate uncertainty about fire ignition locations and weather conditions to inform policy by examining the role of spatial endogenous risk—where management actions on one stand affect fire risk in that and adjacent stands. The results support two current strategies, but question two other strategies, for managing forests with fire risk. (JEL Q23)

Optimal spatial patterns of fuel management and timber harvest with fire risk.

The stochastic and spatial nature of fire poses challenges for the cost-efficient allocation of fuel treatment over the landscape. A model that addresses complex but important components of fuel ma...

Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future fire suppression costs

Where a legacy of aggressive wildland fire suppression has left forests in need of fuel reduction, allowing wildland fire to burn may provide fuel treatment benefits, thereby reducing suppression costs from subsequent fires. The least-cost-plus-net-value-change model of wildland fire economics includes benefits of wildfire in a framework for evaluating suppression options. In this study, we estimated one component of that benefit - the expected present value of the reduction in suppression costs for subsequent fires arising from the fuel treatment effect of a current fire. To that end, weemployedMonteCarlomethodstogenerateasetofscenariosforsubsequentfireignitionandweatherevents,whichare referred to as sample paths, for a study area in central Oregon. We simulated fire on the landscape over a 100-year time horizon using existing models of fire behaviour, vegetation and fuels development, and suppression effectiveness, and we estimatedsuppressioncostsusinganexistingsuppressioncostmodel.Ourestimatessuggestthatthepotentialcostsavings may be substantial. Further research is needed to estimate the full least-cost-plus-net-value-change model. This line of research will extend the set of tools available for developing wildfire management plans for forested landscapes. Additional keywords: bio-economic modelling, forest economics, forest fire policy, wildland fire management.

Economic and Spatial Impacts of an Existing Reserve Network on Future Augmentation

An optimization model for land reservation was developed that explicitly selects parcels in the most compact or contiguous manner possible while meeting habitat requirements and a budget limitation. The model was used to compare the effects of an existing reserve network on future parcel spatial locations and total cost. Using habitat and land value data from Josephine County, Oregon, it was found that a system of existing reserves created by various policies and overseen by different agencies can decrease future reserve compactness and contiguity, and increase total cost. This work suggests that coordinated planning can result in more efficient conservation efforts for less cost.

Analysis of the threshold and expected coverage approaches to the probabilistic reserve site selection problem

Two approaches to formulating the reserve site selection problem when species occurrence data is probabilistic were solved for terrestrial vertebrates in a small set of potential reserve sites in Oregon. The expected coverage approach, which maximizes the sum of the occurrence probabilities, yielded solutions that covered more species on average in Monte Carlo simulations than the threshold approach, which maximizes the number of species for which the occurrence probability exceeds some threshold.

Wildfire Risk Management in a Landscape with Fragmented Ownership and Spatial Interactions

This article examines how the spatial configuration of forest ownership influences risk-mitigating behavior of public and private forestland owners over time. We use a game theoretic framework to examine how the public landowner’s investment in fuel management influences, and is influenced by, decisions made by private forestland owners. We find that spatial configuration and location affect the timing and amount of fuel treatment on the landscape. There is less investment in fuel management on landscapes characterized by fragmented ownerships. We also find that the type of strategic interaction between landowners depends critically on the shape of the wildfire damage function. (JEL Q23, Q24)

Beyond the Monolith: The Role of Bonding, Bridging, and Linking Social Capital in the Cycle of Adaptive Capacity

ABSTRACT A case-study approach was used to understand the role of social capital in the cycle of adaptive capacity in three rural, forest communities in Washington State. The study reveals social capital to be a critical ingredient in the resolution of diverse community development events. The findings enhance our understanding of the impacts of social capital on community outcomes by dividing the concept into three types—bonding, bridging, and linking social capital. Social capital does not translate linearly into community outcomes. Generally, community members stressed the importance of bridging social capital to achieve community-wide desired outcomes. Yet strong bridging social capital had no potency when linking social capital with key power brokers was absent. Finally, the case-study approach reveals how social capital is created and can be built up or depleted. The findings are applicable to community development practitioners, rural community leaders, and public land managers that interface with forest communities.

The Cost of Achieving Old-Growth Forest Structure

Dwindling area of old-growth forest is of concern in many regions of the world. Forest reserves provide one solution. But highly productive timberlands are typically excluded from reserves due to cost. In this study, old-growth forest is defined by structural attributes believed to be important for old-growth-dependent wildlife species. Management practices are allowed that accelerate the development of these attributes while permitting timber harvest. A minimum area of old-growth forest is protected at any time, but the spatial location of old-growth can shift over time. We demonstrate our approach using a case study on private land in western Oregon. (JEL Q23)