Claire L. Parkinson

Recent rapid regional climate warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.

Arctic sea ice extents, areas, and trends, 1978-1996

Satellite passive-microwave data for November 1978 through December 1996 reveal marked seasonal, regional, and interannual variabilities, with an overall decreasing trend of −34,300±3700 km2/yr (−2.8%/decade) in Arctic sea ice extents over the 18.2-year period. Decreases occur in all seasons and on a yearly average basis, although they are largest in spring and smallest in autumn. Regionally, the Kara and Barents Seas have the largest decreases, at −15,200±1900 km2/yr (−10.5%/decade), followed by the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan, the Arctic Ocean, Greenland Sea, Hudson Bay, and Canadian Archipelago. The yearly average trends for the total, the Kara and Barents Seas, and the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan all have high statistical significance, with the null hypothesis of a 0 slope being rejected at a 99% confidence level. Regions showing increasing yearly average ice extents are Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea, the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and the Bering Sea, with only the increases in the Gulf of St. Lawrence being statistically significant at the 99% level. Hemispheric results for sea ice areas exhibit the same −2.8%/decade decrease as for ice extents and hence a lower absolute decrease (−29,500±3800 km2/yr), with the ice-free area within the ice pack correspondingly decreasing at −4800±1600 km2/yr. Confidence levels for the trends in ice areas and ice-free water areas exceed 99% and 95%, respectively. Nonetheless, interannual variability is high, and, for instance, the Arctic Ocean ice extents have a positive trend 1990–1996, in spite of their negative trend for the time period as a whole.

Passive Microwave Algorithms for Sea Ice Concentration: A Comparison of Two Techniques

Abstract The most comprehensive large-scale characterization of the global sea ice cover so far has been provided by satellite passive microwave data. Accurate retrieval of ice concentrations from these data is important because of the sensitivity of surface flux (e.g., heat, salt, and water) calculations to small changes in the amount of open water (leads and polynyas) within the polar ice packs. Two algorithms that have been used for deriving ice concentrations from multichannel data are compared. One is the NASA Team algorithm and the other is the Bootstrap algorithm, both of which were developed at NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center. The two algorithms use different channel combinations, reference brightness temperatures, weather filters, and techniques. Analyses are made to evaluate the sensitivity of algorithm results to variations of emissivity and temperature with space and time. To assess the difference in the performance of the two algorithms, analyses were performed with data from both hemispheres and for all seasons. The results show only small differences in the central Arctic in winter but larger disagreements in the seasonal regions and in summer. In some areas in the Antarctic, the Bootstrap technique shows ice concentrations higher than those of the Team algorithm by as much as 25%; whereas, in other areas, it shows ice concentrations lower by as much as 30%. The differences in the results are caused by temperature effects, emissivity effects, and tie point differences. The Team and the Bootstrap results were compared with available Landsat, advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. AVHRR, Landsat, and SAR data sets all yield higher concentrations than the passive microwave algorithms. Inconsistencies among results suggest the need for further validation studies.

Aqua: an Earth-Observing Satellite mission to examine water and other climate variables

Aqua is a major satellite mission of the Earth Observing System (EOS), an international program centered at the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The Aqua satellite carries six distinct Earth-observing instruments to measure numerous aspects of Earths atmosphere, land, oceans, biosphere, and cryosphere, with a concentration on water in the Earth system. Launched on May 4, 2002, the satellite is in a Sun-synchronous orbit at an altitude of 705 km, with a track that takes it north across the equator at 1:30 p.m. and south across the equator at 1:30 a.m. All of its Earth-observing instruments are operating, and all have the ability to obtain global measurements within two days. The Aqua data will be archived and available to the research community through four Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs).

Deriving long‐term time series of sea ice cover from satellite passive‐microwave multisensor data sets

We have generated consistent sea ice extent and area data records spanning 18.2 years from passive-microwave radiances obtained with the Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and with the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F8, F11, and F13 special sensor microwave/imagers. The goal in the creation of these data was to produce a long-term, consistent set of sea ice extents and areas that provides the means for reliably determining sea ice variability over the 18.2-year period and also serves as a baseline for future measurements. We describe the method used to match the sea ice extents and areas from these four multichannel sensors and summarize the problems encountered when working with radiances from sensors having different frequencies, different footprint sizes, different visit times, and different calibrations. A major obstacle to adjusting for these differences is the lack of a complete year of overlapping data from sequential sensors. Nonetheless, our procedure reduced ice extent differences during periods of sensor overlap to less than 0.05% and ice area differences to 0.6% or less.

30‐Year satellite record reveals contrasting Arctic and Antarctic decadal sea ice variability

A 30-year satellite record of sea ice extents derived mostly from satellite microwave radiometer observations reveals that the Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 0.30+0.03 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10 yr from 1972 through 2002, but by 0.36 plus or minus 0.05 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10yr from 1979 through 2002, indicating an acceleration of 20% in the rate of decrease. In contrast, the Antarctic sea ice extent decreased dramatically over the period 1973-1977, then gradually increased. Over the full 30-year period, the Antarctic ice extent decreased by 0.15 plus or minus 0.08 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10 yr. The trend reversal is attributed to a large positive anomaly in Antarctic sea ice extent in the early 1970s, an anomaly that apparently began in the late 1960s, as observed in early visible and infrared satellite images.

Trends in the length of the Southern Ocean sea-ice season, 1979^99

Abstract Satellite passive-microwave data have been used to calculate and map the length of the sea-ice season throughout the Southern Ocean for each year 1979–99. Mapping the slopes of the lines of linear least-squares fit through the 21 years of resulting season-length data reveals a detailed pattern of trends in the length of the sea-ice season around the Antarctic continent. Specifically, most of the Ross Sea ice cover has, on average over the 21 years, undergone a lengthening of the sea-ice season, whereas most of the Amundsen Sea ice cover and almost the entire Bellingshausen Sea ice cover have undergone a shortening of the sea-ice season. Results for the Weddell Sea are mixed, with the northwestern portion of the sea having experienced a shortening of the sea-ice season but a substantial area in the south–central portion of the sea having experienced a lengthening of the ice season. Overall, the area of the Southern Ocean experiencing a lengthening of the sea-ice season by at least 1day per year over the period 1979–99 is 5.6 × 106 km2, whereas the area experiencing a shortening of the sea-ice season by at least 1 day per year is 46% less than that, at 3.0 × 166 km2.

Variability of antarctic sea ice: and changes in carbon dioxide.

A definitive long-term decrease in the extent of antarctic sea ice is not detectable from 9 years (1973 to 1981) of year-round satellite observations and limited prior data. Regional interannual variability is large, with sea ice decreasing in some regions while increasing in others. A significant decrease in overall ice extent during the mid-1970s, previously suggested to reflect warming induced by carbon dioxide, has not been maintained. In particular, the extent of ice in the Weddell Sea region has rebounded after a large decrease concurrent with a major oceanographic anomaly, the Weddell polynya. Over the 9 years, the trends are nearly the same in all seasons, but for periods of 3 to 5 years, greater winter ice maxima are associated with lesser summer ice minima. The decrease of the mid-1970s was preceded by an increase in ice extent from 1966 to 1972, further indicating the presence of cyclical components of variation that obscure any long-term trends that might be caused by a warming induced by carbon dioxide.

Satellite-Observed Changes in the Arctic

The Arctic has warmed by about 1°C in the past two decades. That time period has seen glaciers retreat, permafrost thaw, snow cover decrease, and ice sheets thin.

A 21-Year Record of Arctic Sea Ice Extents and Their Regional, Seasonal, and Monthly Variability and Trends

Abstract Satellite passive-microwave data have been used to calculate sea-ice extents over the period 1979–99 for the north polar sea-ice cover as a whole and for each of nine regions. Over this 21 year time period, the trend in yearly-average ice extents for the ice cover as a whole is –32 900±6100 km2 a–1 (–2.7 ±0.5% per decade), indicating a statistically significant reduction in sea-ice coverage. Regionally, the reductions are greatest in the Arctic Ocean, the Kara and Barents Seas and the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan; and seasonally, the reductions are greatest in summer, for which season the 1979–99 trend in ice extents is –41600±12 900 km2 a–1 (–4.9±1.5% per decade). On a monthly basis, the reductions are greatest in July and September for the north polar ice cover as a whole, in September for the Arctic Ocean, in June and July for the Kara and Barents Seas, and in April for the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan. Of the nine regions, only the Bering Sea and the Gulf of St Lawrence show positive ice-extent trends on a yearly-average basis. However, the increases in these two regions are not statistically significant. For the north polar region as a whole, and for the Arctic Ocean, the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan, and Hudson Bay, the negative trends in the yearly averages are statistically significant at a 99% confidence level.