Claire Margerison-Zilko

The Health Effects of Economic Decline

Political pronouncements and policy statements include much conjecture concerning the health and behavioral effects of economic decline. We both summarize empirical research concerned with those effects and suggest questions for future research priorities. We separate the studies into groups defined by questions asked, mechanisms invoked, and outcomes studied. We conclude that although much research shows that undesirable job and financial experiences increase the risk of psychological and behavioral disorder, many other suspected associations remain poorly studied or unsupported. The intuition that mortality increases when the economy declines, for example, appears wrong. We note that the research informs public health programming by identifying risk factors, such as job loss, made more frequent by economic decline. The promise that the research would identify health costs and benefits of economic policy choices, however, remains unfulfilled and will likely remain so without stronger theory and greater methodological agreement.

Selection against small males in utero: a test of the Wells hypothesis

BACKGROUND The argument that women in stressful environments spontaneously abort their least fit fetuses enjoys wide dissemination despite the fact that several of its most intuitive predictions remain untested. The literature includes no tests, for example, of the hypothesis that these mechanisms select against small for gestational age (SGA) males. METHODS We apply time-series modeling to 4.9 million California male term births to test the hypothesis that the rate of SGA infants in 1096 weekly birth cohorts varies inversely with labor market contraction, a known stressor of contemporary populations. RESULTS We find support for the hypothesis that small size becomes less frequent among term male infants when the labor market contracts. CONCLUSIONS Our findings contribute to the evidence supporting selection in utero. They also suggest that research into the association between maternal stress and adverse birth outcomes should acknowledge the possibility that fetal loss may affect findings and their interpretation. Strengths of our analyses include the large number and size of our birth cohorts and our control for autocorrelation. Weaknesses include that we, like nearly all researchers in the field, have no direct measure of fetal loss.

Positive income shocks and accidental deaths among Cherokee Indians: a natural experiment

BACKGROUND Several studies in low-income populations report the somewhat counterintuitive finding that positive income gains adversely affect adult health. The literature posits that receipt of a large portion of annual income increases, in the short term, risk-taking behaviour and/or the consumption of health-damaging goods. This work implies the hypothesis that persons with an unexpected gain in income will exhibit an elevated risk of accidental death-the fifth leading cause of death in the USA. We test this hypothesis directly by capitalizing on a natural experiment in which Cherokee Indians in rural North Carolina received discrete lump sum payments from a new casino. METHODS We applied Poisson regression to the monthly count of accidental deaths among Cherokee Indians over 204 months spanning 1990-2006. We controlled for temporal patterns in accidental deaths (e.g. seasonality and trend) as well as changes in population size. RESULTS As hypothesized, the risk of accidental death rises above expected levels during months of the large casino payments (relative risk = 2.62; 95% confidence interval = 1.54-4.47). Exploratory analyses of ethnographic interviews and behavioural surveys support that increased vehicular travel and consumption of health-damaging goods may account for the rise in accident proneness. CONCLUSIONS Although long-term income gains may improve health in this population, our findings indicate that acute responses to large income gains, in the short term, increase risk-taking and accident proneness. We encourage further investigation of natural experiments to identify causal economic antecedents of population health.

Hormonal evidence supports the theory of selection in utero.

Antagonists in the debate over whether the maternal stress response during pregnancy damages or culls fetuses have invoked the theory of selection in utero to support opposing positions. We describe how these opposing arguments arise from the same theory and offer a novel test to discriminate between them. Our test, rooted in reports from population endocrinology that human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) signals fetal fitness, contributes not only to the debate over the fetal origins of illness, but also to the more basic literature concerned with whether and how natural selection in utero affects contemporary human populations.

Natural selection in utero induced by mass layoffs: the hCG evidence

Evolutionary theory, when coupled with research from epidemiology, demography, and population endocrinology, suggests that contracting economies affect the fitness and health of human populations via natural selection in utero. We know, for example, that fetal death increases more among males than females when the economy unexpectedly contracts; that unexpected economic contraction predicts low secondary sex ratios; and that males from low sex ratio birth cohorts live, on average, longer than those from high sex ratio cohorts. We also know that low levels of human chorionic gonadotropin (i.e., hCG) measured in the serum of pregnant women predict fetal death. We do not, however, know whether male survivors of conception cohorts subjected to contracting economies exhibit, as theory predicts, higher hCG than those from other cohorts. We show, in 71 monthly conception cohorts including nearly two million California births, that they do. We thereby add to the literature suggesting that the economy, a phenomenon over which we collectively exercise at least some control, affects population health. Our findings imply that the effect arises via natural selection – a mechanism we largely ignore when attempting to explain, or alter, how collective choice affects our biology.

Health Impacts of the Great Recession: a Critical Review

The severity, sudden onset, and multipronged nature of the Great Recession (2007–2009) provided a unique opportunity to examine the health impacts of macroeconomic downturn. We comprehensively review empirical literature examining the relationship between the Recession and mental and physical health outcomes in developed nations. Overall, studies reported detrimental impacts of the Recession on health, particularly mental health. Macro- and individual-level employment- and housing-related sequelae of the Recession were associated with declining fertility and self-rated health, and increasing morbidity, psychological distress, and suicide, although traffic fatalities and population-level alcohol consumption declined. Health impacts were stronger among men and racial/ethnic minorities. Importantly, strong social safety nets in some European countries appear to have buffered those populations from negative health effects. This literature, however, still faces multiple methodological challenges, and more time may be needed to observe the Recession’s full health impact. We conclude with suggestions for future work in this field.

Beyond the Cross-Sectional: Neighborhood Poverty Histories and Preterm Birth

OBJECTIVES We examined associations between longitudinal neighborhood poverty trajectories and preterm birth (PTB). METHODS Using data from the Neighborhood Change Database (1970-2000) and the American Community Survey (2005-2009), we categorized longitudinal trajectories of poverty for California neighborhoods (i.e., census tracts). Birth data included 23 291 singleton California births from the Maternal and Infant Health Assessment (2003-2009). We estimated associations (adjusted for individual-level covariates) between PTB and longitudinal poverty trajectories and compared these to associations using traditional, cross-sectional measures of poverty. RESULTS Compared to neighborhoods with long-term low poverty, those with long-term high poverty and those that experienced increasing poverty early in the study period had 41% and 37% increased odds of PTB (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18, 1.69 and 1.09, 1.72, respectively). High (compared with low) cross-sectional neighborhood poverty was not associated with PTB (odds ratio = 1.08; 95% CI = 0.91, 1.28). CONCLUSIONS Neighborhood poverty histories may contribute to an understanding of perinatal health and should be considered in future research.

Maternal exposure to unexpected economic contraction and birth weight for gestational age

Background: The macro-level economy may affect fetal health through maternal behavioral or physiologic responses. Methods: We used a multilevel design to examine associations between exposure to state-level unexpected economic contraction during each trimester of gestation and birth weight for gestational age percentile and small for gestational age (SGA), using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. We examined differences in observed associations by maternal educational attainment, race/ethnicity, employment status, and poverty status. Results: Exposure in the first trimester was associated with a 3.7 percentile point decrease in birth weight for gestational age (95% confidence interval [CI] = −6.8 to −0.6). This association appeared stronger for women “keeping house” or with <12 years education. Exposure in the first trimester was also associated with increased odds of SGA (odds ratio = 1.5 [95% CI = 1.1 to 2.1]) and term SGA (odds ratio = 1.6 [95% CI = 1.2 to 2.3]). Conclusions: Unexpected economic contraction during early pregnancy may be associated with reduced fetal growth.

Long-term neighborhood poverty trajectories and obesity in a sample of california mothers

Abstract Neighborhoods (and people) are not static, and are instead shaped by dynamic long‐term processes of change (and mobility). Using the Geographic Research on Wellbeing survey, a population‐based sample of 2339 Californian mothers, we characterize then investigate how long‐term latent neighborhood poverty trajectories predict the likelihood of obesity, taking into account short‐term individual residential mobility. We find that, net of individual and neighborhood‐level controls, living in or moving to tracts that experienced long‐term low poverty was associated with lower odds of being obese relative to living in tracts characterized by long‐term high poverty. HighlightsWe estimate the influence of long‐term neighborhood poverty on obesity.We also take into account short‐term residential mobility.Mothers who live in long‐term poor neighborhoods have higher odds of obesity.Mothers who live in long‐term low poverty neighborhoods have lower odds of obesity.Future research should consider using long‐term measures of neighborhood factors.

Timing of birth: Parsimony favors strategic over dysregulated parturition

The “dysregulated parturition” narrative posits that the human stress response includes a cascade of hormones that “dysregulates” and accelerates parturition but provides questionable utility as a guide to understand or prevent preterm birth. We offer and test a “strategic parturition” narrative that not only predicts the excess preterm births that dysregulated parturition predicts but also makes testable, sex‐specific predictions of the effect of stressful environments on the timing of birth among term pregnancies.