Clare Kahn

Cancer incidence and mortality in people aged less than 75 years: changes in Australia over the period 1987-2007.

BACKGROUND Australia has one of the highest rates of cancer incidence worldwide and, despite improving survival, cancer continues to be a major public health problem. Our aim was to provide simple summary measures of changes in cancer mortality and incidence in Australia so that progress and areas for improvement in cancer control can be identified. METHODS We used national data on cancer deaths and newly registered cancer cases and compared expected and observed numbers of deaths and cases diagnosed in 2007. The expected numbers were obtained by applying 1987 age-sex specific rates (average of 1986-1988) directly to the 2007 population. The observed numbers of deaths and incident cases were calculated for 2007 (average of 2006-2008). We limited the analyses to people aged less than 75 years. RESULTS There was a 28% fall in cancer mortality (7827 fewer deaths in 2007 vs. 1987) and a 21% increase in new cancer diagnoses (13,012 more diagnosed cases in 2007). The greatest reductions in deaths were for cancers of the lung in males (-2259), bowel (-1797), breast (-773) and stomach (-577). Other notable falls were for cancers of the prostate (-295), cervix (-242) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (-240). Only small or no changes occurred in mortality for cancers of the lung (female only), pancreas, brain and related, oesophagus and thyroid, with an increase in liver cancer (267). Cancer types that showed the greatest increase in incident cases were cancers of the prostate (10,245), breast (2736), other cancers (1353), melanoma (1138) and thyroid (1107), while falls were seen for cancers of the lung (-1705), bladder (-1110) and unknown primary (-904). CONCLUSIONS The reduction in mortality indicates that prevention strategies, improvements in cancer treatment, and screening programmes have made significant contributions to cancer control in Australia since 1987. The rise in incidence is partly due to diagnoses being brought forward by technological improvements and increased coverage of screening and early diagnostic testing.

Postsurgical pathology reporting of thyroid cancer in New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND Clear, accurate, and complete reporting of postsurgical pathology is crucial for the correct evaluation and management of thyroid cancer patients. This study aimed to describe the completeness, as defined by international guidelines, of pathology reporting in a cohort of newly diagnosed thyroid cancer patients in New South Wales (NSW) and to identify factors associated with the completeness of reports. METHODS Postsurgical pathology reports, held by the NSW Central Cancer Registry, for 448 thyroid cancer patients were reviewed. Presence or absence of recommended key features (tumor histology type, maximum dimension, focality, completeness of excision, extrathyroidal extension, lymphovascular invasion, and lymph node involvement) was recorded. Associations between the number of key items reported and several patient characteristics were investigated. RESULTS For 285 (63.6%) patients one or more key pathological features were missing, with 177 (39.5%) missing one only, 88 (19.6%) missing two, and 20 (4.5%) missing three or more. Extrathyroidal extension was the most poorly reported key feature, being present in only 228 (50.9%) reports [95% confidence interval 46.2, 55.6]. Pathology reports were less complete for patients with small tumor size (p<0.001) or localized spread (p<0.001). Synoptic reports were significantly more complete than narrative-style reports (98.3% vs. 27.1%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Postsurgical pathology reporting of differentiated thyroid cancer in NSW was found to be far from complete, with 64% of reports missing information on at least one feature that is considered internationally to be a critical factor in the prognosis and treatment of thyroid cancer patients. Synoptic reporting reduces the number of key features missing from pathology reports.

Temporal trends show improved breast cancer survival in Australia but widening urban-rural differences

We examined geographic patterns in breast cancer survival over time using population-based data for breast cancer diagnosed between 1987 and 2007 in New South Wales, Australia. We found that five-year relative survival increased during the entire study period. Multivariable analysis indicated that there was little geographic variation in 1992-1996, but in 1997-2001 and 2002-2007 geographic variation was statistically significant (P < 0.01), with women living in rural areas having higher risk of death from breast cancer. The underlying reasons for this widening survival disparity must be identified so that appropriately targeted interventions can be implemented and the disparity reduced.

Cancer Screening among Immigrants Living in Urban and Regional Australia: Results from the 45 and Up Study

Over 25% of the Australian population are immigrants, and are less active participants in cancer screening programmes. Most immigrants live in urban areas of Australia, but a significant proportion (~20%), live in regional areas. This study explored differences in cancer screening participation by place of birth and residence. Self-reported use of mammogram, faecal occult blood test (FOBT), and/or prostate specific antigen (PSA) tests was obtained from 48,642 immigrants and 141,275 Australian-born participants aged 50 years or older in the 45 and Up Study (New South Wales, Australia 2006–2010). Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risks of test use, adjusting for key socio-demographic characteristics. Overall, immigrants from Asia and Europe were less likely to have had any of the tests in the previous two years than Australian-born participants. Regional Australian-born participants were more likely to have had any of the tests than those living in urban areas. Regional immigrant participants were more likely to have had an FOBT or PSA test than those living in urban areas, but there were no differences in mammograms. This report identifies key immigrant groups in urban and regional areas that policymakers and healthcare providers should target with culturally appropriate information to promote cancer screening

A population-based study of breast cancer prevalence in Australia: predicting the future health care needs of women living with breast cancer

BackgroundBreast cancer places a heavy burden on the Australian healthcare system, but information about the actual number of women living with breast cancer and their current or future health service needs is limited. We used existing population-based data and innovative statistical methods to address this critical research question in a well-defined geographic region.MethodsBreast cancer data from the New South Wales (NSW) Central Cancer Registry and PIAMOD (Prevalence and Incidence Analysis MODel) software were used to project future breast cancer prevalence in NSW. Parametric models were fitted to incidence and survival data, and the modelled incidence and survival estimates were then used to estimate current and future prevalence. To estimate future healthcare requirements the projected prevalence was then divided into phases of care according to the different stages of the survivorship trajectory.ResultsThe number of women in NSW living with a breast cancer diagnosis had increased from 19,305 in 1990 to 48,754 in 2007. This number is projected to increase further to 68,620 by 2017. The majority of these breast cancer survivors will require continued monitoring (31,974) or will be long-term survivors (29,785). About 9% will require active treatment (either initial therapy, or treatment for subsequent metastases or second cancer) and 1% will need end of life care due to breast cancer.ConclusionsExtrapolating these projections to the national Australian population would equate to 209,200 women living with breast cancer in Australia in 2017, many of whom will require active treatment or post-treatment monitoring. Thus, careful planning and development of a healthcare system able to respond to this increased demand is required.

Temporal Trends in Geographical Variation in Breast Cancer Mortality in China, 1973–2005: An Analysis of Nationwide Surveys on Cause of Death

To describe geographical variation in breast cancer mortality over time, we analysed breast cancer mortality data from three retrospective national surveys on causes of death in recent decades in China. We first calculated the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for each of the 31 provinces in mainland China stratified by survey period (1973–1975, 1990–1992 and 2004–2005). To test whether the geographical variation in breast cancer mortality changed over time, we then estimated the rate ratio (RR) for the aggregated data for seven regions and three economic zones using generalized linear models. Finally, we examined the correlation between mortality rate and several macro-economic measures at the provincial level. We found that the overall ASMR increased from 2.98 per 100,000 in 1973–1975 to 3.08 per 100,000 in 1990–1992, and to 3.85 per 100,000 in 2004–2005. Geographical variation in breast cancer mortality also increased significantly over time at the regional level (p = 0.002) but not at the economic zone (p = 0.089) level, with RR being generally lower for Western China (Northwest and Southwest) and higher in Northeast China over the three survey periods. These temporal and spatial trends in breast cancer mortality were found to be correlated with per capita gross domestic product, number of hospitals and health centres’ beds per 10,000 population and number of practicing doctors per 10,000 population, and average number of live births for women aged 15–64. It may be necessary to target public health policies in China to address the widening geographic variation in breast cancer mortality, and to take steps to ensure that the ease of access and the quality of cancer care across the country is improved for all residents.

Lung cancer prevalence in New South Wales (Australia): Analysis of past trends and projection of future estimates.

BACKGROUND To provide a temporal analysis of lung cancer prevalence over two decades in New South Wales (NSW), Australia and projections of future lung cancer prevalence up to 2017. METHODS Data for lung cancer cases diagnosed in 1983-2007 with survival follow-up to the end of 2007 were extracted from the population-based NSW Central Cancer Registry. Five-year prevalence was calculated by the counting method at five time points (1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007) for which data were available, then historical prevalence trends (1987-2007) were extrapolated into 2008-2017. RESULTS For men, 5-year prevalence of lung cancer in NSW increased slowly in number from 1748 in 1987 to 2151 in 2007, although there was a 15% reduction in prevalence rates over the same time period. For women, there was a greater increase both in number (2.55 times) and rates (88%) between 1987 and 2007. Despite the narrowing gap in lung cancer prevalence between men and women, in 2007 the 5-year prevalence for men was still higher than that for women. However, if the past trends continue, it is expected that in 2017 the 5-year lung cancer prevalence for women in NSW will surpass that for men. CONCLUSIONS Our projections suggest that by 2017 the prevalence of lung cancer for women will be greater than that of men in NSW Australia. Further strengthening the current tobacco control measures should be considered a high priority in Australia, particularly for adolescents and women.

Factors associated with the use of complementary and alternative medicines for prostate cancer by long-term survivors.

Objective To assess whether the use of complementary and alternative medicines therapies (CAMs) for prostate cancer and/or its treatment side effects by long-term survivors is associated with selected socio-demographic, clinical, health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) and/or psychological factors. Design, setting and participants The Prostate Cancer Care and Outcomes Study (PCOS) is a population-based cohort study of men with prostate cancer who were aged less than 70 years at diagnosis in New South Wales, Australia. Included in these analyses were men who returned a 10-year follow-up questionnaire, which included questions about CAM use. Methods Validated instruments assessed patient’s HRQOL and psychological well-being. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to estimate the adjusted relative risks of current CAM use for prostate cancer according to socio-demographic, clinical, HRQOL and psychological factors. Results 996 of 1634 (61%) living PCOS participants completed the 10-year questionnaire. Of these 996 men, 168 (17%) were using CAMs for prostate cancer and 525 (53%) were using CAMs for any reason (including prostate cancer). Those using CAM for prostate cancer were more likely to be regular or occasional support group participants (vs. no participation RR = 2.02; 95%CI 1.41–2.88), born in another country (vs. Australian born RR = 1.59; 95%CI 1.17–2.16), have received androgen deprivation treatment (ADT) since diagnosis (RR = 1.60; 95%CI 1.12–2.28) or in the past two years (RR = 2.34; 95%CI 1.56–3.52). CAM use was associated with greater fear of recurrence (RR = 1.29; 95%CI 1.12–1.48), cancer-specific distress (RR = 1.15; 95%CI 1.01–1.30), cancer-specific hyperarousal (RR = 1.17; 95%CI 1.04–1.31), cancer locus of control (RR = 1.16; 95%CI 1.01–1.34) and less satisfaction with medical treatments (RR = 0.86; 95%CI 0.76–0.97), but not with intrusive thinking, cognitive avoidance, depression, anxiety or any HRQOL domains. Conclusions In this study, about one in six long term prostate cancer survivors used CAMs for their prostate cancer with use centred around ADT, country of birth, distress, cancer control, fear of recurrence and active help seeking.

Contrasting temporal trends in lung cancer incidence by socioeconomic status among women in New South Wales, Australia, 1985–2009

OBJECTIVE We examined long-term trends in lung cancer incidence for women by socioeconomic groups in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. METHODS Data on lung cancer incidence for women were extracted from the NSW Cancer Registry database. We divided the study cohort into five quintiles according to an area-based index of education and occupation (IEO) and calculated annual age-standardised incidence rates by IEO quintile for the period 1985-2009. The age-standardised incidence ratio (SIR) was estimated for IEO quintiles and 5-year period of diagnosis using the highest IEO quintile as the reference. RESULTS Overall, lung cancer incidence for women aged 25-69 years increased gradually from 19.8 per 100,000 in 1985 to 25.7 per 100,000 in 2009. The trends by IEO quintile were somewhat comparable from 1985 through to 1995, but from then on rates remained relatively stable for women residing in the highest quintile while increasing for women residing in the remaining four quintiles. Consequently, the SIR for all four of the lower IEO quintiles increased significantly over the 25-year period. For example, the SIR in the lowest IEO quintile increased from 1.16 (95% CI, 0.99-1.37) during 1985-1989 to 1.70 (95% CI, 1.50-1.93) during 2005-2009. The corresponding estimates for women aged 70 years or older showed no clear pattern of socioeconomic gradient. CONCLUSION The increasing gap in lung cancer incidence between women in the highest socioeconomic group and all others suggests that there is a continued need for the broad implementation of tobacco control interventions, so that smoking prevalence is reduced across all segments of the population and the subsequent benefits are shared more equitably across all demographic groups.

Colorectal cancer metastatic disease progression in Australia: A population-based analysis

BACKGROUND No previous Australian population-based studies have described or quantified the progression of colorectal cancer (CRC) to metastatic disease. We describe patterns of progression to metastatic disease for an Australian cohort diagnosed with localised or regional CRC. METHODS All localised and regional CRC cases in the New South Wales Cancer Registry diagnosed during 2000-2007 were followed to December 2011 for subsequent metastases (identified by subsequent disease episode notifications) or CRC death. Cox regression was used to identify factors associated with metastatic progression. RESULTS After a median 5.3 years follow-up, 26.4% of the 12757 cases initially diagnosed with localised or regional colon cancer had developed metastatic disease, as had 29.5% of the 7154 rectal cancer cases. For both cancer sites, risk of metastatic progression was significantly higher for those initially diagnosed with regional disease (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.49 for colon, 2.66 for rectal cancer), and for older cases (e.g. aHR for >79years vs <60years: 1.38 for colon, 1.69 for rectal cancer). Risk of disease progression was significantly lower for females, and varied by histology type. For colon cancer, the risk of disease progression decreased over time. For rectal cancer, risk of metastatic progression was significantly higher for those living in more socioeconomically disadvantaged areas compared with those in the least disadvantaged area. CONCLUSIONS An understanding of the variation in risk of metastatic progression is useful for planning health service requirements, and can help inform decisions about treatment and follow-up for colorectal cancer patients.