Claude Berrebi

Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate

This paper relies on the variation of terror attacks across time and space as an instrument to identify the causal effects of terrorism on the preferences of the Israeli electorate. The authors find that the occurrence of a terror attack within three months of the elections is associated with a 1.35 percentage points increase on the local support for the right bloc of political parties out of the two blocs vote. This effect is of a significant political magnitude given the level of terrorism in Israel and the fact that its electorate is closely split between the right and left blocs. Moreover, a terror fatality has important electoral effects beyond the locality where the attack is perpetrated, and their electoral impact is stronger the closer to the elections they occur. Interestingly, the observed political effects are not affected by the identity of the party holding office. These results provide empirical support for the hypothesis that the electorate shows a highly sensitive reaction to terrorism, and substantiate the claim that terror organizations especially target democratic regimes because these regimes are more prone to make territorial concessions.

HOW DOES TERRORISM RISK VARY ACROSS SPACE AND TIME? AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE ISRAELI EXPERIENCE

We study the spatial and temporal determinants of terrorism risk in Israel, using a geocoded database of Israeli terrorist attacks from 1949 to 2004. In selecting targets, terrorists seem to respond rationally to costs and benefits: they are more likely to hit targets more accessible from their own homebases and international borders, closer to symbolic centers of government administration, and in more heavily Jewish areas. We also examine the waiting time between attacks experienced by localities. Long periods without an attack signal lower risk for most localities, but higher risk for important areas such as regional or national capitals.

Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together

Abstract : The authors report on an aggressively interdisciplinary project to survey and integrate the scholarly social-science literature relevant to counterterrorism. They draw on literature from numerous disciplines, both qualitative and quantitative, and then use high-level conceptual models to pull the pieces together. In their monograph, they identify points of agreement and disagreement and point out instances in which disagreements merely reflect difference of research context or perspective. Priorities for further research are suggested and improved ways to frame questions for research and analysis are identified. The questions addressed relate to how terrorism arises, why some individuals become terrorists, how terrorists generate public support, how terrorist organizations make decisions, how terrorism declines, why individuals disengage, and how strategic communications can be more or less effective.

The Impact of Terrorism on the Defence Industry

This paper analyses the impact of terrorism on Israeli companies related to the defence, security or anti-terrorism industries, relative to its impact on other companies. We match every Israeli company to the American company with the closest expected return among all the companies that belong to the same industry and trade in the same market, in order to isolate the effect of terrorism from other common industry shocks. The findings show that whereas terrorism had a significant negative impact of 5% on non-defence-related companies, it had a significantly positive overall effect of 7% on defence-related companies.

Earthquakes, hurricanes, and terrorism: do natural disasters incite terror?

A novel and important issue in contemporary security policy is the impact of natural disasters on terrorism. Natural disasters can strain a society and its government, creating vulnerabilities which terrorist groups might exploit. Using a structured methodology and detailed data on terrorism, disasters, and other relevant controls for 167 countries between 1970 and 2007, the authors find a strong positive impact of disaster-related deaths on subsequent terrorism deaths and incidence. They find that, on average, an increase in deaths from natural disasters of 25,000 leads to an increase in the following year of approximately 33 percent in the number of deaths from terrorism, an increase of approximately 22 percent in the number of terrorist attacks, and an increase of approximately 16 percent in the number wounded in terrorist attacks, holding all other factors constant. Furthermore, the effects differ by disaster types and country characteristics. Results were consistently significant and robust across a multitude of disaster and terrorism measures for a diverse set of model specifications. The results have strong implications for both disaster and terrorism mitigation policy.

Bridging the gap between basic science and clinical practice: a role for community clinicians

BackgroundTranslating the extraordinary scientific and technological advances occurring in medical research laboratories into care for patients in communities throughout the country has been a major challenge. One contributing factor has been the relative absence of community practitioners from the US biomedical research enterprise. Identifying and addressing the barriers that prevent their participation in research should help bridge the gap between basic research and practice to improve quality of care for all Americans.MethodsWe interviewed over 200 clinicians and other healthcare stakeholders from 2004 through 2005 to develop a conceptual framework and set of strategies for engaging a stable cadre of community clinicians in a clinical research program.ResultsLack of engagement of community practitioners, lack of necessary infrastructure, and the current misalignment of financial incentives and research participation emerged as the three primary barriers to community clinician research participation. Although every effort was made to learn key motivators for engagement in clinical research from interviewees, we did not observe their behavior and self-report by clinicians does not always track with their behavior.ConclusionsA paradigm shift involving acknowledgement of the value of clinicians in the context of community research, establishment of a stable infrastructure to support a cohort of clinicians across time and research studies, and realignment of incentives to encourage participation in clinical research is required.

Exploiting the Chaos: Terrorist Target Choice Following Natural Disasters

This article explores the differences between transnational and domestic terrorism, further differentiating by private versus government targets, to estimate the effect of exogenous catastrophic shocks on a countrys level of domestic and transnational terrorism. The empirical analysis uses detailed data on terrorism, natural disasters, and other relevant controls for 176 countries from 1970–2007 to illuminate several key disparities in a postdisaster target choice of terrorists. The results indicate that natural disasters incite both transnational and domestic terrorism; however, evidence is found for dissimilar motivations between the two. While both types of terrorism increase after disasters, transnational attacks against the government increase immediately following the disaster, suggesting an impetus to exploit weakened “hard” targets during the chaos. Conversely, domestic terrorism against the government takes longer to manifest, suggesting a period of time for which the public recovers and assesses the governments response.

Reengineering the clinical research enterprise to involve more community clinicians

BackgroundThe National Institutes of Health has called for expansion of practice-based research to improve the clinical research enterprise.MethodsThis paper presents a model for the reorganization of clinical research to foster long-term participation by community clinicians.Based on the literature and interviews with clinicians and other stakeholders, we posited a model, conducted further interviews to test the viability of the model, and further adapted it.ResultsWe propose a three-dimensional system of checks and balances to support community clinicians using research support organizations, community outreach, a web-based registry of clinicians and studies, web-based training services, quality audits, and a feedback mechanism for clinicians engaged in research.ConclusionsThe proposed model is designed to offer a systemic mechanism to address current barriers that prevent clinicians from participation in research. Transparent mechanisms to guarantee the safety of patients and the integrity of the research enterprise paired with efficiencies and economies of scale are maintained by centralizing some of the functions. Assigning other responsibilities to more local levels assures flexibility with respect to the size of the clinician networks and the changing needs of researchers.

Terrorism and the Labor Force

Recent studies have identified correlational associations linking terrorism and females’ standing in the labor market. Theories have been proposed to explain these associations. Some concluded that women’s participation in the labor force could be the driver that moves terrorism; others proposed that terrorism motivates the deviations in the labor force. No study has adequately explored causality and the direction of this association. Using a panel data set of 165 countries and terrorism data from 1980 to 2007, we find that terrorist attacks decrease female labor force participation and increase the gender gap between male and female labor force participation. By exploiting variation across countries and time, we are able to identify and quantify these effects; we are also able to address endogeneity concerns by using two novel instrumental variable approaches. The results are statistically significant and robust across a multitude of model specifications.

Potential Solutions to the Quagmire of Persistent Rural PCP shortages

The empirical research documents a persistent shortage of Primary Care Physicians (PCPs) in US rural regions, as will limit the effectiveness of any effort to implement universal health coverage into the United States. As a result, it constitutes a critical policy issue of immediate importance. However, complexity has rendered repeated efforts to introduce a solution futile, belying an urgent need for an improved, conceptual understanding. To support this critical objective, this study purposively adopts a rigorous methodology known as root cause analysis (RCA), as a first for the literature in this context. Whereas the rural and metro PCP have been falsely interpreted as representing close substitutes, this comprehensive analysis reveals that the rural, shortage area PCP is a vocational commitment with unique, defining characteristics. Fresh insights into a problem that has spanned several decades enable this study to introduce a comprehensive strategy — as based upon seven, evidenced-based policy approaches — that receives strong empirical support as a potential means of reversing the intransient trend.