Claudia M. Buch

Financial Openness and Business Cycle Volatility

This paper discusses whether the integration of international financial markets affects business cycle fluctuations. In the framework of a new open economy macro-model, we show that the link between financial openness and business cycle volatility depends on the nature of the underlying shock. Empirical evidence supports this conclusion. Our results also show that the link between business cycle volatility and financial openness has not been stable over time.

Why Do Banks Go Abroad?; Evidence from German Data

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of foreign activities of German banks. We use regionally disaggregated panel data for the years 1981?98 and distinguish foreign direct investment from total foreign assets of domestic banks, of their foreign branches and their subsidiaries. Foreign activities are found to be positively related to demand conditions on the local market, foreign activities of German firms, and the presence of financial centers. This supports the hypothesis that German banks follow their customers abroad. Exchange rate volatility has some negative impact. EU membership and the abolition of capital controls seem to have exerted a greater influence on foreign assets than on FDI of German banks, thus weakly supporting the hypothesis that the two are substitutes.

Distance and International Banking

This paper asks how important distance is as a determinant of international banking and whether distance has become less important over time. If technological progress has lowered information costs and if information costs increase in distance, the importance of distance should have declined. I use data on assets and liabilities of commercial banks from five countries (France, Germany, Italy, UK, and US) in 50 host countries for the years 1983–99 to test this hypothesis. Generally, I find that banks hold significantly lower assets in distant markets and that the importance of distance for the foreign asset holdings of banks has not changed.

Worker Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing Countries

Worker remittances constitute an increasingly important mechanism for the transfer of resources from developed to developing countries, and remittances are the second-largest source, behind foreign direct investment, of external funding for developing countries. Yet, literature on worker remittances has so far focused mainly on the impact of remittances on income distribution within countries, on the determinants of remittances at a micro-level, or on the effects of migration and remittances for specific countries or regions. The focus of this paper is thus on four questions: First, how important are worker remittances to developing countries in quantitative terms? Second, what are the determinants driving worker remittances? Third, how volatile are worker remittances to developing countries? Fourth, are remittances correlated to other capital flows?

Foreign direct investment in Europe: Is there redirection from the South to the East?

Abstract This paper examines patterns of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in two regions on the periphery of Europe, namely, the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) and the countries of Southern Europe. We investigate FDI redirection from Southern Europe to the CEECs. Using gravity model equations, we compare expected and actual FDI figures. We ultimately conclude that there is no evidence of FDI redirection between these two regions.

Capital and Trade Flows in Europe and the Impact of Enlargement

The Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) is likely to give a further boost to trade and capital flows, yet empirical evidence on the possible magnitudes is still scarce. This paper uses four different datasets to estimate the determinants of international asset holdings and trade flows. We find in most regressions that EU membership has a significant effect. Based on additional simulations of the expected flows to ten transition economies, we conclude that for the EU candidates actual values are still far below expected ones in most cases. Consequently, we anticipate rising capital and trade flows with the approach of EU accession, in particular for the seven EU candidates besides the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.

Does the East Get What Would Otherwise Flow to the South? FDI Diversion in Europe

This paper examines the FDI flows towards two regions in the periphery of Europe: the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) and the countries of Southern Europe. We investigate whether evidence exists for FDI diversion from Southern Europe to the CEECs. A cursory observation of recent FDI trends might give rise to such claims of diversion. On the basis of gravity model equations, this paper compares the expected and actual FDI figures. The findings lead us to conclude that there is no evidence of FDI diversion between these two regions.

Money demand in Hungary and Poland

This paper analyses the determinants and the stability of money demand functions in Hungary and Poland, using an error-correction framework. The null of stable cointegration relationships cannot be rejected in some specifications. The results suggest that long-run parameters are in line with economic theory. While judging the appropriateness of different strategies of monetary policy on the basis of these findings alone would be premature, the paper suggests that money demand functions can serve as a useful reference for monetary authorities.

Foreign versus domestic banks in Germany and the US: a tale of two markets?

Abstract Regarding the market shares of foreign banks, Germany and the US seem to represent two polar cases. While Germany is well integrated into international capital flows, market shares of foreign banks are among the lowest of industrialized countries. In the US, by contrast, where branching restrictions have hampered the regional expansion of (domestic and foreign) banks until recently, foreign banks still hold substantially larger shares of the commercial banking market. This paper analyzes whether markets serviced by domestic and foreign banks in the two economies are segmented. We find evidence for an incomplete integration of markets serviced by foreign and domestic banks both in the US and in Germany and large regional disparities of market shares of foreign banks in the US.

Does Export Openness Increase Firm-level Output Volatility?

There is a widespread concern that increased trade may lead to increased instability and thus risk at the firm level. Greater export openness can indeed affect firm-level volatility by changing the exposure and the reaction of firms to macroeconomic developments. The net effect is ambiguous from a theoretical point of view. This paper provides firm-level evidence on the link between openness and volatility. Using comprehensive data on more than 21,000 German manufacturing firms for the period 1980–2001, we analyse the evolution of firm-level output volatility and the link between volatility and export openness. Our paper has three main findings. First, firm-level output volatility is significantly higher than the level of aggregate volatility, but it displays similar patterns. Second, increased export openness lowers firm-level output volatility. This effect is primarily driven by variations along the extensive margin, i.e. by the distinction between exporters and non-exporters. Variations along the intensive margin, i.e. the volume of exports, tend to have a dampening impact on volatility as well. Third, small firms are more volatile than large firms.