Claudia Moya

Suicide detection in Chile: proposing a predictive model for suicide risk in a clinical sample of patients with mood disorders

Objective: To analyze suicidal behavior and build a predictive model for suicide risk using data mining (DM) analysis. Methods: A study of 707 Chilean mental health patients (with and without suicide risk) was carried out across three healthcare centers in the Metropolitan Region of Santiago, Chile. Three hundred forty-three variables were studied using five questionnaires. DM and machine-learning tools were used via the support vector machine technique. Results: The model selected 22 variables that, depending on the circumstances in which they all occur, define whether a person belongs in a suicide risk zone (accuracy = 0.78, sensitivity = 0.77, and specificity = 0.79). Being in a suicide risk zone means patients are more vulnerable to suicide attempts or are thinking about suicide. The interrelationship between these variables is highly nonlinear, and it is interesting to note the particular ways in which they are configured for each case. The model shows that the variables of a suicide risk zone are related to individual unrest, personal satisfaction, and reasons for living, particularly those related to beliefs in one’s own capacities and coping abilities. Conclusion: These variables can be used to create an assessment tool and enables us to identify individual risk and protective factors. This may also contribute to therapeutic intervention by strengthening feelings of personal well-being and reasons for staying alive. Our results prompted the design of a new clinical tool, which is fast and easy to use and aids in evaluating the trajectory of suicide risk at a given moment.

Suicide risk configuration system in a clustered clinical sample: a generalized linear model obtained through the LASSO technique

Objective: To identify clinical and sociodemographic factors that increase or decrease suicidal risk in a clinical sample of subjects seeking mental health care. Method: A cross-sectional study was performed at three health centers in Santiago, Chile. The Parental Bonding Instrument (PBI), Depressive Experience Questionnaire (DEQ), Outcome Questionnaire (OQ-45.2), Reasons for Living Inventory (RFL), and State Trait Anger Expression Inventory (STAXI-2), in addition to a sociodemographic survey, were applied to 544 participants (333 with suicidal behavior and 211 without current suicidal behavior). Through hierarchical clustering analysis, participants were grouped by similarity regarding suicidal risk. Then, a regression analysis was performed using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) technique, and factors that decrease or increase suicide risk (SR) were identified for each cluster. Results: The resultant clusters were grouped mainly by the age of participants. The most important protective factor was having confidence in one’s own coping skills in difficult situations. Relevant risk factors were major depressive disorder (MDD), poor anger management, and difficulties in interpersonal relationships. Conclusions: Suicidal risk manifests differently throughout the life cycle, and different types of bonds may protect from or increase risk of suicide.