Claudio Fabian Szlafsztein

A socioeconomic and natural vulnerability index for oil spills in an Amazonian harbor: a case study using GIS and remote sensing.

The coastal zone of the Brazilian state of Maranhão is an area characterized by a large variety of human activities and services, in particular in the Itaqui-Bacanga port complex (IBC). The IBC is an area prone to oil spills resulting from the processes of transportation, storage, and tank cleaning. The present study aimed to map the different physical environments adjacent to this complex and the socioeconomic profile of the local population that would be most vulnerable to this type of disaster. Vulnerability studies are essential as one of the first step in the development of an integrated coastal zone management. The variables analyzed in this study included geomorphological units, and the income, education, and dependence on fishing of the local population. The estimate of the vulnerability index was based on the relationships between these variables, which were used to generate a vulnerability map using GIS and the interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing, showing the areas of highest priority for intervention in the case of oil spills. The analysis of the natural and socioeconomic environments indicated that the areas of highest vulnerability correspond to the mangroves and the Vila Nova and Alto da Esperança neighborhoods, respectively. These neighborhoods have a direct relationship with fishing, and low levels of both income and education. By contrast, the lowest vulnerability was attributed to the coastal plateau and the central Anjo da Guarda neighborhood, which is occupied by residents with relatively high income and education, who do not depend on fishing.

Implications of mangrove dynamics for private land use in Bragança, North Brazil: a case study

This work analyses effects of recent variations in the tidal inundation frequency in a mangrove ecosystem in the Bragança peninsula, North Brazil, and its implications for land occupation and use. Field data, time series of remote sensing images and local legislation were analysed focusing on the potential socio-economic impact of a changing environmental setting due to a rise in relative sea level. In the investigated period (1972–1997), vegetation changes along the coastline indicate net losses of mangrove coverage. In the central part of the peninsula, a topographically higher herbaceous plain constituting part of a farm presents an active progression of mangrove forest into an area previously dominated by grasses and herbs. This area measured 8.8 km2 in 1972 but was gradually reduced to 5.6 km2 in 1997, while progressively replaced by a monospecific stand of the black mangrove,Avicennia germinans. A linear extrapolation indicates that the elevated plain may be completely covered by mangrove by 2035. Current Brazilian legislation prohibits the extraction of mangrove trees without an officially approved management plan. Thus, the usable area of the farm has suffered a reduction by ca. 36% over 25 yr and we predict that is could be entirely replaced by mangroves in the next 35 yr. In this case study, legislation and ecosystem characteristics are analysed and a management plan discussed which could represent income alternatives for affected resource users at the local and regional level.

Mangrove inundation and nutrient dynamics from a GIS perspective

A digital elevation model describing topography, tide elevation and inundation degree and frequency of a mangrove forest in North Brazil is discussed in relation to existing phosphate and physicochemical data in waters of an adjacent tidal creek. Due to smooth topography, an increase of 20 cm in tidal height above average neap tides increases flooded area from about 50 to 80%. Analysis of the relationship between microtopography, tidal height and flooding rate showed that in the upper 60 cm of the mangrove forest, increases of 20 cm in topographical height resulted in a doubling of the inundation frequency. This can be particularly relevant for the analysis of nutrient mobilization and vegetation structure of infrequently inundated wetlands. Throughout the year, low-tide phosphate in creek water was inversely proportional to the maximum area flooded during high tide, this correlation being higher during the dry season. Similarly, the inverse relationship between flooded areas and low-tide/high-tide pH ratios was highly significant during the dry season and the beginning of the rainy season. Although the high correlations obtained are based on data pairs obtained at high and low tide, it has to clarified whether the association between inundation degree and creek water pH is relevant for the stability of P compounds in sediment on the short scale of a tidal cycle.

The Brazilian Amazon coastal zone management: implementation and development obstacles

The Amazon region represents approximately 35% of the Brazilian coastline and includes the states of Amapá, Pará, and Maranhão. After several years, the Amazon coastal zone has not made clear progress and has failed to show important results in terms of management plans based on the weak societal and local community support, the absence of a strong institutional coordination, and the scarcity of resources. This study aims to present and discuss the existence of others important factors that have obstructed the development of these plans, specifically, describing and analyzing the uncertainties regarding the redefinition of coastal zone boundaries, integrated management concepts, stake-holders responsibility, and governmental disinterest associated with the area by the government and society. Finally, it is considered the possibility of the emergence of new driving forces for the implementation and development of the State Coastal Zone Management Plan in the Amazon region among which the following stand out: the territorial fragmentation of the states in the Amazon coastal zone, the increased exploitation pressure for coastal zone resources, and the role of global climatic change on coastal areas.

Community participation in flood mapping in the Amazon through interdisciplinary methods

Community participation is an increasing issue in risk and disaster management. This paper argues that interdisciplinary methods are necessary for mapping flooding areas. On the one hand, hazards can be quantified and mapped through deductive approaches and methods from the natural sciences. On the other hand, hazards can also be described from the population perspective at a local level using social sciences methods. The methods are successfully mixed with a geographical information system environment. In the first case, important inputs include topographic and slope data for geomorphological mapping. In the second case, timeline methodology can indicate temporally the most severe floods, and a participatory map construction gives the population the opportunity to point out the affected areas. These methods were applied in a case study in the lower Amazon River Region in the urban area of the Santarém municipality. High-resolution images and remote sensing were essential tools. Results show that nine neighborhoods have high and moderate susceptibility areas to riverine floods. Another nine neighborhoods are affected by flash floods. Flood mapping is the first step in risk mapping for the sustainability of regional planning.

Development projects for small rural communities in the Brazilian Amazon region as potential strategies and practices of climate change adaptation

Climate scenarios for the Amazon region (Brazil) indicate an increase in temperature and a precipitation decrease, affecting society and economic activities, particularly small-scale rural communities. The research aims to identify, describe and evaluate factors present in sustainable development projects for small rural communities (Type- A Demonstration Projects - PDA and Alternatives to Deforestation and Burnt Projects - PADEQ), already implemented, for recognizing its potential use as strategies for adaptation to climate change for small rural communities in the Amazon region. The researches, concerning fifteen projects in Rondonia, Para and Mato Grosso States, were developed through document analysis, technical visits, and interviews with stakeholders of three projects about the community perception, vulnerability and adaptation capacity. The analysis of documents regarding the potential success of the projects highlights their short history, important in the local context, prospects for continuity, and community participation in decision making. Few activities developed in projects could be associated with climate change adaptation practices. Two strategies and practices are the most important: the social organization and the process of awareness and training of the community, and the diversification of the types and forms of agricultural production. The interviews indicate that adaptation is implemented in projects, but without considering the pressures of climate variability and change. While these projects were not planned in the context of climate change, the greatest role of the projects relates to the strengthening of the already existing adaptation capacity, creating good conditions for incorporation of new strategies and adaptation measures, now clearly associated to the objective to reduce the vulnerability to climate change and variability impacts.

Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding

The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement.

Management of natural disasters in the Brazilian Amazon region

We describe and analyze the legal, institutional, and financial dimensions of risk management in the Brazilian Amazon region, principally in the states of Acre, Amazonas, and Para and the factors that contribute to the definition of the challenges for a successful natural disaster management there. The analysis classifies the normative instruments used in sustainable development, territorial zoning, risk management, climate change, and water resources issues and identifies the state government organizations involved with disaster risk management, which are classified according to a proposed thematic–temporal–task responsibilities relationship model. State-level administrators were also interviewed. We found that states are responsible for the provision of protection and assistance to the population, roles conducted by the police and the firefighting corps and that legal instruments can indirectly assist with the reduction of vulnerability factors. Most of the institutional states’ structures have a direct relationship with disaster risk management and show a predominance of post-disasters implementation and control of policies and activities. Monetary resource transfers from the federal government to states are a mixture of voluntary and mandatory. However, by examining the national and state budgets of 2013 and 2014, it is clear that much of the financing of risk management comes from extraordinary resources. The answers given by the managers of state government institutions are categorized as risk management perception and coordination, and financial, institutional, and data challenges, all of which are faced in the Amazon region. Thus, this paper expects to contribute to the understanding of one of the most important forms of disaster risk response capacity and to the reduction of the vulnerability of the states studied.

AVALIAÇÃO DE RISCO DE DESASTRES NA BACIA HIDROGRÁFICA DO RIO PURUS (BRASIL) COM BASE EM ÍNDICES COMPOSTOS

Nos ultimos anos, a bacia hidrografica do rio Purus tem registrado um numero crescente de situacoes de desastres associados a precipitacoes. Este trabalho avalia o risco de (re) incidencia destes eventos para auxiliar no planejamento e gestao do territorio amazonico utilizando indices compostos de ameacas e vulnerabilidade em ambiente GIS. Os indices compostos pontuam, classificam e combinam quatro variaveis independentes associadas com o historico de desastres entre 1971 e 2012, caracteristicas morfologicas, de uso do solo e susceptibilidade a focos de calor. Os resultados apresentados em dois mapas relacionados com intenso incremento e reducao precipitacoes, representando as subbacias das areas do alto, medio e baixo curso da bacia. As zonas de alto e moderado risco correspondem as areas mais antropizadas. A metodologia e resultados apresentados constituem-se importante ferramenta para refletir aspectos intrinsecos a prevencao e reducao de risco de desastres em outras bacias Amazonicas.

Remote Sensing and Environmental Sensitivity for Oil Spill in the Amazon, Brazil

The use of remote sensing has become a fundamental tool for the identification and analysis of different types of risks in coastal zones. The numerous and, in some cases, recent incidents of oil spills have encouraged companies and government agencies to improve methods, both anticipatory and corrective, to minimize damages. The term ‘risk’ denotes the possibility that adverse effects may occur as a result of natural events or human activities (Kates et al., 1985). Risk is defined as an association between the hazard s characteristics (e.g. frequency, magnitude and location) and the vulnerability of affected human populations, environment and infrastructure (Wisner et al., 2004). Risk can be classified by their origin, such as natural, social, or technological (Renn, 2008). Oil spills are an example of the last category, and the coastal areas are one of the most impacted. Environmental sensitivity to oil impacts can be defined through the coastal Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI), which considers: (i) the geomorphologic aspects such as type and slope of coastline and the degree of exposure to the energy of waves and tides; (ii) oil sensitive biological resources; and (iii) the socio-economic activities that can be affected by oil spills (Gundlach & Hayes, 1978; Dutrieux et al., 2000).