Claudio Lupi

Widening Differences in Italian Regional Unemployment

Regional unemployment differentials among Italian regions have widened since the mid 1980s, especially between the leading Northern and Central areas and the underdeveloped South. We suggest that the following elements are important to explain the observed phenomenon: a) employment performance in the South has worsened considerably in the presence of sustained labour force growth; b) labour mobility from the South to the NC areas has sensibly declined with the reduction in earnings differentials and with the increase in social transfers per head; c) real wages in the South are not affected by local unemployment conditions but depend on the unemployment rate prevailing in the leading areas; d) the labour share increase particularly fast in the South during the 1970s, mainly as a consequence of the elimination of institutions that allowed the presence of significant wage differentials; e) a parsimonious description of the increase in regional unemployment differentials is that the Northern and Southern areas responded in an asymmetric way both to the increase in real social transfers per head and to the reduction in the real price of energy.

Does natal habitat preference modulate cereal kernel preferences in the rice weevil

The influence of larval diet source in Sitophilus oryzae (L.), a primary grain feeder, on the choice of a new cereal host by young adult was investigated through a multiple choice comparative bioassay. For this purpose, virgin male and female adults, which had been reared as immatures in different grain commodities, were monitored according to their food preference in cylindrical arenas containing whole kernels of maize, rice, barley and wheat. The adults showed a clear individual preference for maize kernels, regardless of the previous food experience, sex and also the interval on which the adults are exposed to food. Males were much more mobile than females and visited more vigorously different commodities before the final choice. Female response was found to be related with male response to specific food sources. Hence, our results indicate that there was no natal habitat preference induction, since maize was, in most cases, the final commodity choice.

Divergence and long-run equilibria in Italian regional unemployment

The Italian labour market is characterized by large and persistent regional unemployment differentials. This study uses recent panel unit root and cointegration tests to derive the long-run properties of the Italian regional unemployment disparities. The empirical evidence suggests that the stochastic convergence hypothesis can be rejected. However, the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among regional unemployment rates cannot be excluded. Some possible implications of this finding are sketched.

Long-range properties and data validity for hydrogeological time series: The case of the Paglia river

This paper explores a large collection of about 377,000 observations, spanning more than 20 years with a frequency of 30 min, of the streamflow of the Paglia river, in central Italy. We analyze the long-term persistence properties of the series by computing the Hurst exponent, not only in its original form but also under an evolutionary point of view by analyzing the Hurst exponents over a rolling windows basis. The methodological tool adopted for the persistence is the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), which is classically known as suitable for our purpose. As an ancillary exploration, we implement a control on the data validity by assessing if the data exhibit the regularity stated by Benford’s law. Results are interesting under different viewpoints. First, we show that the Paglia river streamflow exhibits periodicities which broadly suggest the existence of some common behavior with El Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillations: this specifically points to a (not necessarily direct) effect of these oceanic phenomena on the hydrogeological equilibria of very far geographical zones: however, such an hypothesis needs further analyses to be validated. Second, the series of streamflows shows an antipersistent behavior. Third, data are not consistent with Benford’s law: this suggests that the measurement criteria should be opportunely revised. Fourth, the streamflow distribution is well approximated by a discrete generalized Beta distribution: this is well in accordance with the measured streamflows being the outcome of a complex system.

Wage expectations in northern and southern Italian regions: An interpretation based on psychological and social factors

Individual wage expectations of Italian unemployed are studied. The analysis is carried out separately for the North‐Central and southern Italian regions using semiparametric additive models. Results show a marked difference in expectations formation across regions. We argue that as far as the labour market information in the South is less diffuse and more ambiguous than in the North, the divergence between the econometric model based on a utility‐maximisation mainstream theory and the actual wage expectation mechanism may be large. A tentative explanation based on psychological and social factors is offered.

Family Income and Wealth, Youth Unemployment and Active Labour Market Policies

This paper studies some features of unemployment in Italy using cross section individual micro data. Since unemployment is particularly harsh with respect to youths, interest is focused on 15-29-year-old youngsters. The analysis is carried out using standard logit models and the results show that personal and family characteristics play an essential role in shaping youth activity and unemployment rates of short and long duration, together with product market conditions and labour market features. In particular, the income effect seems relevant for participation decisions, while the family wealth helps in reducing youth unemployment. Various policy instruments might be able to reduce youth unemployment, especially if these instruments are targeted through means-testing on family income and wealth and through a proper distinction between the first job seekers and the strictly unemployed.

Beyond National Institutions: Labor Taxes and Regional Unemployment in Italy

By focusing on the Italian experience, we ask whether the relationship between labor taxes and unemployment varies across regions. In spite of similar national labor market institutions, we show that this relationship is significantly stronger in the highly industrialized North than in the under-developed South, where unemployment is much higher. An important source of variation in the regional responsiveness of unemployment originates from the fact that regional gross wages in the North increase more than in the South in response to a hike in labor taxes. Regional wage setting affects regional employment (and unemployment) both directly and indirectly, via its impact on regional profits and the capital stock.

Risk measures on networks and expected utility

In reliability theory projects are usually evaluated in terms of their riskiness, and often decision under risk is intended as the one-shot-type binary choice of accepting or not accepting the risk. In this paper we elaborate on the concept of risk acceptance, and propose a theoretical framework based on network theory. In doing this, we deal with system reliability, where the interconnections among the random quantities involved in the decision process are explicitly taken into account. Furthermore, we explore the conditions to be satisfied for risk-acceptance criteria to be consistent with the axiomatization of standard expected utility theory within the network framework. In accordance with existing literature, we show that a risk evaluation criterion can be meaningful even if it is not consistent with the standard axiomatization of expected utility, once this is suitably reinterpreted in the light of networks. Finally, we provide some illustrative examples.

Non-exchangeable copulas and multivariate total positivity

Multivariate total positivity of order 2 (MTP2) is a dependence property with a number of applications in statistics and mathematics. Given the theoretical and practical relevance of MTP2, it is important to investigate the conditions under which random vectors have this property. In this paper we contribute to the development of the theory of stochastic dependence by employing the general concept of copula. In particular, we propose a new family of non-exchangeable Archimedean copulas which leads to MTP2. The focus on non-exchangeability allows us to overcome the limitations induced by symmetric dependence, typical of standard Archimedean copulas.

Copulas, uncertainty, and false discovery rate control

Abstract The false discovery rate ( fdr ) is a powerful approach to multiple testing. However, dependence among test statistics is critical for fdr control. The way in which this dependence structure is described represents the most prominent source of uncertainty of this statistical theme. Copulas play a relevant role among the techniques used to deal with uncertainty and dependence. This paper contributes to fill an existing gap in the scientific debate by exploring the connections between the literature on fdr and that on copulas. In particular, we aim at attracting the interest of the scientific community on this topic by identifying suitable classes of nonstandard copulas which ensure that fdr control can be attained for dependent test statistics.