Clay R. Tabor

Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations

Change was in the air The atmospheric fraction of molecular oxygen gas, O2, currently at 21%, is thought to have varied between around 35 and 15% over the past 500 million years. Because O2 is not a greenhouse gas, often this variability has not been considered in studies of climate change. Poulson and Wright show that indirect effects of oxygen abundance, caused by contributions to atmospheric pressure and mean molecular weight, can affect precipitation and atmospheric humidity (see the Perspective by Peppe and Royer). These effects may thus have produced significant changes in the strength of greenhouse forcing by water vapor, surface air temperatures, and the hydrological cycle in the geological past. Science, this issue p. 1238; see also p. 1210 Atmospheric oxygen concentrations may have had an important indirect effect on climate in the distant past. [Also see Perspective by Peppe and Royer] The percentage of oxygen in Earth’s atmosphere varied between 10% and 35% throughout the Phanerozoic. These changes have been linked to the evolution, radiation, and size of animals but have not been considered to affect climate. We conducted simulations showing that modulation of the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2), as a result of its contribution to atmospheric mass and density, influences the optical depth of the atmosphere. Under low pO2 and a reduced-density atmosphere, shortwave scattering by air molecules and clouds is less frequent, leading to a substantial increase in surface shortwave forcing. Through feedbacks involving latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere and marine stratus clouds, surface shortwave forcing drives increases in atmospheric water vapor and global precipitation, enhances greenhouse forcing, and raises global surface temperature. Our results implicate pO2 as an important factor in climate forcing throughout geologic time.

Spatiotemporal variability of modern precipitation δ18O in the central Andes and implications for paleoclimate and paleoaltimetry estimates

Understanding the patterns of rainfall isotopic composition in the central Andes is hindered by sparse observations. Despite limited observational data, stable isotope tracers have been commonly used to constrain modern-to-ancient Andean atmospheric processes, as well as to reconstruct paleoclimate and paleoaltimetry histories. Here, we present isotopic compositions of precipitation (δ18Op and δDp) from 11 micrometeorological stations located throughout the Bolivian Altiplano and along its eastern flank at ~21.5°S. We collected and isotopically analyzed 293 monthly bulk precipitation samples (August 2008 to April 2013). δ18Op values ranged from −28.0‰ to 9.6‰, with prominent seasonal cycles expressed at all stations. We observed a strong relationship between the δ18Op and elevation, though it varies widely in time and space. Constraints on air sourcing estimated from atmospheric back trajectory calculations indicate that continental-scale climate dynamics control the interannual variability in δ18Op, with upwind precipitation anomalies having the largest effect. The impact of precipitation anomalies in distant air source regions to the central Andes is in turn modulated by the Bolivian High. The importance of the Bolivian High is most clearly observed on the southern Bolivian Altiplano. However, monthly variability among Altiplano stations can exceed 10‰ in δ18Op on the plateau and cannot be explained by elevation or source variability, indicating a nontrivial role for local scale effects on short timescales. The strong influence of atmospheric circulation on central Andean δ18Op requires that paleoclimate and paleoaltimetry studies consider the role of South American atmospheric paleocirculation in their interpretation of stable isotopic values as proxies.

Temperature and salinity of the Late Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway

The Western Interior Seaway (WIS) was a shallow and expansive body of water that covered the central United States during the Late Cretaceous. Attempts to reconstruct temperatures in the seaway using the oxygen isotopic composition of biogenic carbonates have suffered from uncertainty in the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ 18 O w ) in the semi-restricted basin. We present new reconstructed temperature and δ 18 O w data from marine and estuarine environments in the WIS and freshwater environments in WIS source rivers, derived from clumped isotope analyses of bivalve and gastropod shells. We find temperatures of 5–21 °C, δ 18 O w values below contemporaneous Gulf of Mexico marine sites, and a strong correlation between δ 18 O w and environmental setting. We propose that decreasing δ 18 O w values reflect decreasing salinity driven by an increasing contribution of continental runoff. Using a two-end-member salinity-δ 18 O w mixing model, we estimate salinities of 29–35 psu (practical salinity units) for the deep marine, 20–32 psu for the shallow marine, and 11–26 psu for the estuarine environments of the WIS. New climate model simulations agree with reconstructed temperatures and salinities and suggest the presence of salinity driven stratification within the seaway.

The cause of Late Cretaceous cooling: A multimodel-proxy comparison

Proxy temperature reconstructions indicate a dramatic cooling from the Cenomanian to Maastrichtian. However, the spatial extent of and mechanisms responsible for this cooling remain uncertain, given simultaneous climatic influences of tectonic and greenhouse gas changes through the Late Cretaceous. Here we compare several climate simulations of the Cretaceous using two different Earth system models with a compilation of sea-surface temperature proxies from the Cenomanian and Maastrichtian to better understand Late Cretaceous climate change. In general, surface temperature responses are consistent between models, lending confidence to our findings. Our comparison of proxies and models confirms that Late Cretaceous cooling was a widespread phenomenon and likely due to a reduction in greenhouse gas concentrations in excess of a halving of CO 2 , not changes in paleogeography.

Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-Enabled Earth System Model

Studying the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past can help us better understand its dynamics and improve its future projections. However, both paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations of ENSO strength at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP) have led to contradicting results. Here, we perform model simulations using the recently developed water isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). For the first time, model simulated oxygen isotopes are directly compared with those from ENSO reconstructions using the Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA). We find that the LGM ENSO is most likely weaker comparing with the preindustrial. The iCESM suggests that total variance of the IFA records may only reflect changes in the annual cycle instead of ENSO variability as previously assumed. Furthermore, the interpretation of subsurface IFA records can be substantially complicated by the habitat depth of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera and their vertical migration with a temporally varying thermocline.

Response to Comment on “Long-term climate forcing by atmospheric oxygen concentrations”

Goldblatt argues that a decrease in pressure broadening of absorption lines in an atmosphere with low oxygen leads to an increase in outgoing longwave radiation and atmospheric cooling. We demonstrate that cloud and water vapor feedbacks in a global climate model compensate for these decreases and lead to atmospheric warming.

Interpreting Precession‐Driven δ18O Variability in the South Asian Monsoon Region

Speleothem records from the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region display variability in the ratio of O and O (δO) in calcium carbonate at orbital frequencies. The dominant mode of variability in many of these records reflects cycles of precession. There are several potential explanations for why SASM speleothem records show a strong precession signal, including changes in temperature, precipitation, and circulation. Here we use an Earth system model with water isotope tracers and water-tagging capability to deconstruct the precession signal found in SASM speleothem records. Our results show that cycles of precession-eccentricity produce changes in SASM intensity that correlate with local temperature, precipitation, and δO. However, neither the amount effect nor temperature differences are responsible for the majority of the SASM δO variability. Instead, changes in the relative moisture contributions from different source regions drive much of the SASM δO signal, with more nearby moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at aphelion and more distant moisture sources during Northern Hemisphere summer at perihelion. Further, we find that evaporation amplifies the δO signal of soil water relative to that of precipitation, providing a better match with the SASM speleothem records. This work helps explain a significant portion of the long-term variability found in SASM speleothem records. Plain Language Summary Cave records suggest that there has been significant long-term climate variability in India related to changes in Earth’s orbit. However, these records are difficult to interpret because the signals can represent several different climate responses. Here we use a climate model that directly simulates the isotopic data captured in the cave records to better interpret their physical meaning. From these model simulations, we show that a large portion of the orbital signals found in the cave records are due to changes in the amount of water vapor coming from different sources. Changes in the amount of local evaporation compared to precipitation also have a large effect on the signals found in the cave records.