Clément Flaux

Nile Delta’s sinking past: Quantifiable links with Holocene compaction and climate-driven changes in sediment supply?

The Nile Delta is a subsiding sedimentary basin that hosts ~66% of Egypt’s population and 60% of the country’s food production. Projected sea-level-rise scenarios for the coming decades have sharpened focus on the delta’s potential resilience to rapid changes in accommodation space. We use chronostratigraphic data from 194 organic-rich peat and lagoon points to quantitatively reevaluate the drivers of Nile Delta surface dynamics during the Holocene. Reconstructed subsidence rates range from 0.03 to 4.5 mm/yr, and are highest in the Manzala, Burullus, Idku, and Maryut lagoons, areas that correspond to deep late Pleistocene topography infi lled with compressible Holocene strata; 88% of the subsidence values are <2 mm/ yr. We suggest that during the Holocene two signifi cant but previously underestimated contributors to changes in Nile Delta mass balance have been sediment compaction and orbitally forced changes in sediment supply. Between 8000 and 4000 calibrated (cal) 14 C yr B.P., spatially averaged sedimentation rates were greater than subsidence, meaning that delta aggradation was the dominant geomorphological process at the regional scale. Since ca. 4000 cal yr B.P., a sharp climate-driven fall in Nile sediment supply, coupled with the human-induced drainage of deltaic wetlands, has rendered the depocenter more sensitive to degradation by sea-level rise and extreme fl ood events.

Tracking Nile Delta vulnerability to Holocene change.

Understanding deltaic resilience in the face of Holocene climate change and human impacts is an important challenge for the earth sciences in characterizing the full range of present and future wetland responses to global warming. Here, we report an 8000-year mass balance record from the Nile Delta to reconstruct when and how this sedimentary basin has responded to past hydrological shifts. In a global Holocene context, the long-term decrease in Nile Delta accretion rates is consistent with insolation-driven changes in the ‘monsoon pacemaker’, attested throughout the mid-latitude tropics. Following the early to mid-Holocene growth of the Nile’s deltaic plain, sediment losses and pronounced erosion are first recorded after ~4000 years ago, the corollaries of falling sediment supply and an intensification of anthropogenic impacts from the Pharaonic period onwards. Against the backcloth of the Saharan ‘depeopling’, reduced river flow underpinned by a weakening of monsoonal precipitation appears to have been particularly conducive to the expansion of human activities on the delta by exposing productive floodplain lands for occupation and irrigation agriculture. The reconstruction suggests that the Nile Delta has a particularly long history of vulnerability to extreme events (e.g. floods and storms) and sea-level rise, although the present sediment-starved system does not have a direct Holocene analogue. This study highlights the importance of the world’s deltas as sensitive archives to investigate Holocene geosystem responses to climate change, risks and hazards, and societal interaction.

Tsunamis in the geological record: Making waves with a cautionary tale from the Mediterranean

Climate pacing of “tsunami” deposits in the Mediterranean’s geological record challenges ~90% of the original interpretations. From 2000 to 2015, tsunamis and storms killed more than 430,000 people worldwide and affected a further >530 million, with total damages exceeding US

ITCZ and ENSO-like pacing of Nile delta hydro-geomorphology during the Holocene

970 billion. These alarming trends, underscored by the tragic events of the 2004 Indian Ocean catastrophe, have fueled increased worldwide demands for assessments of past, present, and future coastal risks. Nonetheless, despite its importance for hazard mitigation, discriminating between storm and tsunami deposits in the geological record is one of the most challenging and hotly contended topics in coastal geoscience. To probe this knowledge gap, we present a 4500-year reconstruction of “tsunami” variability from the Mediterranean based on stratigraphic but not historical archives and assess it in relation to climate records and reconstructions of storminess. We elucidate evidence for previously unrecognized “tsunami megacycles” with three peaks centered on the Little Ice Age, 1600, and 3100 cal. yr B.P. (calibrated years before present). These ~1500-year cycles, strongly correlated with climate deterioration in the Mediterranean/North Atlantic, challenge up to 90% of the original tsunami attributions and suggest, by contrast, that most events are better ascribed to periods of heightened storminess. This timely and provocative finding is crucial in providing appropriately tailored assessments of coastal hazard risk in the Mediterranean and beyond.