Clémentine Rossier

Abortion incidence between 1990 and 2014: global, regional, and subregional levels and trends

BACKGROUND Information about the incidence of induced abortion is needed to motivate and inform efforts to help women avoid unintended pregnancies and to monitor progress toward that end. We estimate subregional, regional, and global levels and trends in abortion incidence for 1990 to 2014, and abortion rates in subgroups of women. We use the results to estimate the proportion of pregnancies that end in abortion and examine whether abortion rates vary in countries grouped by the legal status of abortion. METHODS We requested abortion data from government agencies and compiled data from international sources and nationally representative studies. With data for 1069 country-years, we estimated incidence using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model whereby the overall abortion rate is a function of the modelled rates in subgroups of women of reproductive age defined by their marital status and contraceptive need and use, and the sizes of these subgroups. FINDINGS We estimated that 35 abortions (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 33 to 44) occurred annually per 1000 women aged 15-44 years worldwide in 2010-14, which was 5 points less than 40 (39-48) in 1990-94 (90% UI for decline -11 to 0). Because of population growth, the annual number of abortions worldwide increased by 5.9 million (90% UI -1.3 to 15.4), from 50.4 million in 1990-94 (48.6 to 59.9) to 56.3 million (52.4 to 70.0) in 2010-14. In the developed world, the abortion rate declined 19 points (-26 to -14), from 46 (41 to 59) to 27 (24 to 37). In the developing world, we found a non-significant 2 point decline (90% UI -9 to 4) in the rate from 39 (37 to 47) to 37 (34 to 46). Some 25% (90% UI 23 to 29) of pregnancies ended in abortion in 2010-14. Globally, 73% (90% UI 59 to 82) of abortions were obtained by married women in 2010-14 compared with 27% (18 to 41) obtained by unmarried women. We did not observe an association between the abortion rates for 2010-14 and the grounds under which abortion is legally allowed. INTERPRETATION Abortion rates have declined significantly since 1990 in the developed world but not in the developing world. Ensuring access to sexual and reproductive health care could help millions of women avoid unintended pregnancies and ensure access to safe abortion. FUNDING UK Government, Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.

Profile: The Ouagadougou Health and Demographic Surveillance System

The Ouagadougou Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Ouaga HDSS), located in five neighbourhoods at the northern periphery of the capital of Burkina Faso, was established in 2008. Data on vital events (births, deaths, unions, migration events) are collected during household visits that have taken place every 10 months. The areas were selected to contrast informal neighbourhoods (∼40 000 residents) with formal areas (40 000 residents), with the aims of understanding the problems of the urban poor, and testing innovative programmes that promote the well-being of this population. People living in informal areas tend to be marginalized in several ways: they are younger, poorer, less educated, farther from public services and more often migrants. Half of the residents live in the Sanitary District of Kossodo and the other half in the District of Sig-Nonghin. The Ouaga HDSS has been used to study health inequalities, conduct a surveillance of typhoid fever, measure water quality in informal areas, study the link between fertility and school investments, test a non-governmental organization (NGO)-led programme of poverty alleviation and test a community-led targeting of the poor eligible for benefits in the urban context. Key informants help maintain a good rapport with the community. The Ouaga HDSS data are available to researchers under certain conditions.

Global, regional, and subregional classification of abortions by safety, 2010–14: estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model

Summary Background Global estimates of unsafe abortions have been produced for 1995, 2003, and 2008. However, reconceptualisation of the framework and methods for estimating abortion safety is needed owing to the increased availability of simple methods for safe abortion (eg, medical abortion), the increasingly widespread use of misoprostol outside formal health systems in contexts where abortion is legally restricted, and the need to account for the multiple factors that affect abortion safety. Methods We used all available empirical data on abortion methods, providers, and settings, and factors affecting safety as covariates within a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the global, regional, and subregional distributions of abortion by safety categories. We used a three-tiered categorisation based on the WHO definition of unsafe abortion and WHO guidelines on safe abortion to categorise abortions as safe or unsafe and to further divide unsafe abortions into two categories of less safe and least safe. Findings Of the 55· 7 million abortions that occurred worldwide each year between 2010–14, we estimated that 30·6 million (54·9%, 90% uncertainty interval 49·9–59·4) were safe, 17·1 million (30·7%, 25·5–35·6) were less safe, and 8·0 million (14·4%, 11·5–18·1) were least safe. Thus, 25·1 million (45·1%, 40·6–50·1) abortions each year between 2010 and 2014 were unsafe, with 24·3 million (97%) of these in developing countries. The proportion of unsafe abortions was significantly higher in developing countries than developed countries (49·5% vs 12·5%). When grouped by the legal status of abortion, the proportion of unsafe abortions was significantly higher in countries with highly restrictive abortion laws than in those with less restrictive laws. Interpretation Increased efforts are needed, especially in developing countries, to ensure access to safe abortion. The paucity of empirical data is a limitation of these findings. Improved in-country data for health services and innovative research to address these gaps are needed to improve future estimates. Funding UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction; David and Lucile Packard Foundation; UK Aid from the UK Government; Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation.

HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites.

Background As the HIV/AIDS pandemic has evolved over recent decades, Africa has been the most affected region, even though a large proportion of HIV/AIDS deaths have not been documented at the individual level. Systematic application of verbal autopsy (VA) methods in defined populations provides an opportunity to assess the mortality burden of the pandemic from individual data. Objective To present standardised comparisons of HIV/AIDS-related mortality at sites across Africa and Asia, including closely related causes of death such as pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and pneumonia. Design Deaths related to HIV/AIDS were extracted from individual demographic and VA data from 22 INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia. VA data were standardised to WHO 2012 standard causes of death assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Between-site comparisons of mortality rates were standardised using the INDEPTH 2013 standard population. Results The dataset covered a total of 10,773 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS, observed over 12,204,043 person-years. HIV/AIDS-related mortality fractions and mortality rates varied widely across Africa and Asia, with highest burdens in eastern and southern Africa, and lowest burdens in Asia. There was evidence of rapidly declining rates at the sites with the heaviest burdens. HIV/AIDS mortality was also strongly related to PTB mortality. On a country basis, there were strong similarities between HIV/AIDS mortality rates at INDEPTH sites and those derived from modelled estimates. Conclusions Measuring HIV/AIDS-related mortality continues to be a challenging issue, all the more so as anti-retroviral treatment programmes alleviate mortality risks. The congruence between these results and other estimates adds plausibility to both approaches. These data, covering some of the highest mortality observed during the pandemic, will be an important baseline for understanding the future decline of HIV/AIDS.Background As the HIV/AIDS pandemic has evolved over recent decades, Africa has been the most affected region, even though a large proportion of HIV/AIDS deaths have not been documented at the individual level. Systematic application of verbal autopsy (VA) methods in defined populations provides an opportunity to assess the mortality burden of the pandemic from individual data. Objective To present standardised comparisons of HIV/AIDS-related mortality at sites across Africa and Asia, including closely related causes of death such as pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and pneumonia. Design Deaths related to HIV/AIDS were extracted from individual demographic and VA data from 22 INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia. VA data were standardised to WHO 2012 standard causes of death assigned using the InterVA-4 model. Between-site comparisons of mortality rates were standardised using the INDEPTH 2013 standard population. Results The dataset covered a total of 10,773 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS, observed over 12,204,043 person-years. HIV/AIDS-related mortality fractions and mortality rates varied widely across Africa and Asia, with highest burdens in eastern and southern Africa, and lowest burdens in Asia. There was evidence of rapidly declining rates at the sites with the heaviest burdens. HIV/AIDS mortality was also strongly related to PTB mortality. On a country basis, there were strong similarities between HIV/AIDS mortality rates at INDEPTH sites and those derived from modelled estimates. Conclusions Measuring HIV/AIDS-related mortality continues to be a challenging issue, all the more so as anti-retroviral treatment programmes alleviate mortality risks. The congruence between these results and other estimates adds plausibility to both approaches. These data, covering some of the highest mortality observed during the pandemic, will be an important baseline for understanding the future decline of HIV/AIDS.

Adult non-communicable disease mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites

Background Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organizations Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15–64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. Design All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15–64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Conclusions These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work.Background Mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major global issue, as other categories of mortality have diminished and life expectancy has increased. The World Health Organizations Member States have called for a 25% reduction in premature NCD mortality by 2025, which can only be achieved by substantial reductions in risk factors and improvements in the management of chronic conditions. A high burden of NCD mortality among much older people, who have survived other hazards, is inevitable. The INDEPTH Network collects detailed individual data within defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To describe patterns of adult NCD mortality from INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories, with separate consideration of premature (15-64 years) and older (65+ years) NCD mortality. Design All adult deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results A total of 80,726 adult (over 15 years) deaths were documented over 7,423,497 person-years of observation. NCDs were attributed as the cause for 35.6% of these deaths. Slightly less than half of adult NCD deaths occurred in the 15-64 age group. Detailed results are presented by age and sex for leading causes of NCD mortality. Per-site rates of NCD mortality were significantly correlated with rates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Conclusions These findings present important evidence on the distribution of NCD mortality across a wide range of African and Asian settings. This comes against a background of global concern about the burden of NCD mortality, especially among adults aged under 70, and provides an important baseline for future work.

Abortion: An Open Secret? Abortion and Social Network Involvement in Burkina Faso

Abortion in Burkina Faso is a subject that neither abortion providers nor women want to talk about. Abortion providers fear criminal prosecution; women’s silence is dictated more by the wish to avoid the stigma of a “shameful” pregnancy. Qualitative investigations in Burkina Faso among 13 key informants in a rural village in 2000 and 30 women and men aware of experience of abortion in the capital Ouagadougou in 2001, explored two paradoxes: what prompts women and providers to reveal something they want to be kept totally secret, and how do women keep their abortion secret while nevertheless talking to others about it? The study found that young women in Burkina Faso are impelled to talk to their boyfriends, friends and in fewer cases women relatives about their unplanned pregnancy, first to decide to have an abortion and then to get help in finding a clandestine provider. Abortion is also kept secret because it is a subject on which there is no social consensus, alongside extra-marital sexual activity, contraceptive use by young people and out-of-wedlock pregnancies. The key to keeping a secret lies in the choice of those with whom to share it; good confidants are those who are bound by secrecy through the bonds of intimacy or shared transgression. Résumé Au Burkina Faso, l’avortement est une question dont ni les prestataires de services d’avortement ni les femmes ne souhaitent parler. Les premiers craignent des poursuites pénales, le silence des femmes étant davantage dicté par la volonté d’éviter les stigmates d’une grossesse « honteuse ». Des enquêtes qualitatives au Burkina Faso auprès de 13 informateurs clés dans un village en 2000 et auprès de 30 femmes et hommes ayant connaissance de l’avortement dans la capitale, Ouagadougou, en 2001 ont étudié deux paradoxes: qu’est-ce qui pousse les femmes et les prestataires à révéler quelque chose qu’ils ne veulent absolument pas ébruiter, et comment les femmes gardent-elles le secret sur leur avortement, tout en en parlant à d’autres ? L’étude a montré que les jeunes femmes au Burkina Faso ressentent le besoin de parler à leurs partenaires, leurs amies et, moins souvent, à leurs parentes de leur grossesse non désirée, d’abord pour décider d’avorter et ensuite pour trouver un praticien clandestin. L’avortement est également tenu secret car il ne fait pas l’objet d’un consensus social, comme l’activité sexuelle extraconjugale, l’utilisation de contraceptifs par les jeunes et les grossesses hors mariage. La clé pour garder le secret réside dans le choix de ceux avec qui le partager, les bons confidents étant ceux qui sont tenus au secret par des liens d’intimité ou de transgression commune. Resumen El aborto en Burkina Faso es un tema del cual ni las mujeres ni los prestadores de servicios quieren hablar: estos últimos por temor a una acción judicial; las mujeres, por evitar el estigma de un embarazo “vergonzoso”. Las investigaciones cualitativas en Burkina Faso entre 13 informantes clave de un poblado rural, en el año 2000, y 30 mujeres y hombres con conocimiento de aborto en la capital de Ouagadougou, en 2001, exploraron dos paradojas: qué induce a las mujeres y los prestadores de servicios a revelar algo que desean mantener totalmente en secreto, y cómo guardan las mujeres su secreto de aborto aunque hablen con otros al respecto? El estudio encontró que las mujeres jóvenes en Burkina Faso se sienten impelidas a hablar con sus novios, amigas y, en algunos casos, parientes del sexo masculino, sobre su embarazo no planeado, primero para decidir tener un aborto y después para conseguir ayuda para encontrar un prestador de servicios clandestino. Además, guardan el secreto del aborto porque éste es un tema respecto al cual no existe consenso social, al igual que la actividad sexual extramatrimonial, el uso de anticonceptivos por la juventud y los embarazos fuera del matrimonio. La clave para guardar un secreto yace en la elección de las personas con quienes se comparte; los buenos confidentes son aquéllos que se sienten obligados a guardar el secreto por los lazos de una relación intima o de una transgresión compartida.

Gender differences in cognitive impairment and mobility disability in old age: a cross-sectional study in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

This study aims to examine differences in cognitive impairment and mobility disability between older men and women in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, and to assess the extent to which these differences could be attributable to gender inequalities in life course social and health conditions. Data were collected on 981 men and women aged 50 and older in a 2010 cross-sectional health survey conducted in the Ouagadougou Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Cognitive impairment was assessed using the Leganés cognitive test. Mobility disability was self-reported as having any difficulty walking 400 m without assistance. We used logistic regression to assess gender differences in cognitive impairment and mobility disability. Prevalence of cognitive impairment was 27.6% in women and 7.7% in men, and mobility disability was present in 51.7% of women and 26.5% of men. The women to men odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for cognitive impairment and mobility disability was 3.52 (1.98-6.28) and 3.79 (2.47-5.85), respectively, after adjusting for the observed life course social and health conditions. The female excess was only partially explained by gender inequalities in nutritional status, marital status and, to a lesser extent, education. Among men and women, age, childhood hunger, lack of education, absence of a partner and being underweight were independent risk factors for cognitive impairment, while age, childhood poor health, food insecurity and being overweight were risk factors for mobility disability. Enhancing nutritional status and education opportunities throughout life span could prevent cognitive impairment and mobility disability and partly reduce the female excess in these disabilities.

Do Natural Methods Count? Underreporting of Natural Contraception in Urban Burkina Faso

Natural methods of contraception were widely used in developed countries until the late 1960s to space and limit childbirth. In France, when the first contraceptive surveys were conducted, researchers noticed that the use of natural methods was underreported, and questions to correct for this bias were subsequently added. The Demographic and Health Surveys do not currently include questions specific to natural methods. We added such questions to the standard DHS question regarding current contraceptive use when we conducted the Health and Demographic Surveillance System of Ouagadougou (2010 Ouaga HDSS) health survey in Burkina Faso among 758 women aged 15-49. Doing so enabled us to find a notable increase in the proportion of women in union who reported practicing contraception: 58 percent, compared with 38 percent in Ouagadougou in the 2010 Burkina Faso DHS. Thirty-two percent of women reported using modern medical methods or condoms in both surveys, but use of natural methods was much greater in the 2010 Ouaga HDSS health survey (26 percent) than in the 2010 Burkina Faso DHS (5 percent). Many women classified as having unmet need for family planning in Ouagadougou by the DHS data are in fact users of natural methods. Additional questions that would measure use of natural methods more completely should be tested in different settings.

Uncertain, Changing and Situated Fertility Intentions

In this chapter, we examine the multiple dimensions of declarations of fertility intention in order to provide a critical reading of currently used indicators of the childbearing decision-making process. Using a qualitative approach, we pay attention to the complexity of the process through which individuals make (or fail to make) plans regarding their reproductive future. The data are a series of comparable in-depth interviews conducted in a number of European countries with varying fertility levels, and differing normative and institutional contexts. First, we analyse the meanings that respondents attribute to their childbearing intentions, paying particular attention to uncertain intentions that are often under-analysed. Second, we study the ways in which individuals vary in holding to their intentions over time, and consider why they might change their minds, even over relatively short periods of time. Third, we examine how several aspects of the larger social context (attitudes towards having children, family policy, norms related to the division of labour, norms about the timing of children) shape fertility intentions.

Insights from an expert group meeting on the definition and measurement of unsafe abortion

Until recently, WHO operationally defined unsafe abortion as illegal abortion. In the past decade, however, the incidence of abortion by misoprostol administration has increased in countries with restrictive abortion laws. Access to safe surgical abortions has also increased in many such countries. An important effect of these trends has been that, even in an illegal environment, abortion is becoming safer, and an updated system for classifying abortion in accordance with safety is needed. Numerous factors aside from abortion method or legality should be taken into consideration in developing such a classification system. An Expert Meeting on the Definition and Measurement of Unsafe Abortion was convened in London, UK, on January 9–10, 2014, to move toward developing a classification system that both reflects current conditions and acknowledges the gradient of risk associated with abortion. The experts also discussed the types of research needed to monitor the incidence of abortion at each level of safety. These efforts are urgently needed if we are to ensure that preventing unsafe abortion is appropriately represented on the global public health agenda. Such a classification system would also motivate investment in research to accurately measure and monitor abortion incidence across categories of safety.