Clese Erikson

Future Supply and Demand for Oncologists : Challenges to Assuring Access to Oncology Services

PURPOSE To conduct a comprehensive analysis of supply of and demand for oncology services through 2020. This study was commissioned by the Board of Directors of ASCO. METHODS New data on physician supply gathered from surveys of practicing oncologists, oncology fellows, and fellowship program directors were analyzed, along with 2005 American Medical Association Masterfile data on practicing medical oncologists, hematologists/oncologists, and gynecologic oncologists, to determine the baseline capacity and to forecast visit capacity through 2020. Demand for visits was calculated by applying age-, sex-, and time-from-diagnosis-visit rate data from the National Cancer Institutes analysis of the 1998 to 2002 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to the National Cancer Institutes cancer incidence and prevalence projections. The cancer incidence and prevalence projections were calculated by applying a 3-year average (2000-2002) of age- and sex-specific cancer rates from SEER to the US Census Bureau population projections released on March 2004. The baseline supply and demand forecasts assume no change in cancer care delivery and physician practice patterns. Alternate scenarios were constructed by changing assumptions in the baseline models. RESULTS Demand for oncology services is expected to rise rapidly, driven by the aging and growth of the population and improvements in cancer survival rates, at the same time the oncology workforce is aging and retiring in increasing numbers. Demand is expected to rise 48% between 2005 and 2020. The supply of services provided by oncologists during this time is expected to grow more slowly, approximately 14%, based on the current age distribution and practice patterns of oncologists and the number of oncology fellowship positions. This translates into a shortage of 9.4 to 15.0 million visits, or 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists-roughly one-quarter to one-third of the 2005 supply. The baseline projections do not include any alterations based on changes in practice patterns, service use, or cancer treatments. Various alternate scenarios were also developed to show how supply and demand might change under different assumptions. CONCLUSIONS ASCO, policy makers, and the public have major challenges ahead of them to forestall likely shortages in the capacity to meet future demand for oncology services. A multifaceted strategy will be needed to ensure that Americans have access to oncology services in 2020, as no single action will fill the likely gap between supply and demand. Among the options to consider are increasing the number of oncology fellowship positions, increasing use of nonphysician clinicians, increasing the role of primary care physicians in the care of patients in remission, and redesigning service delivery.

Factors affecting interest in cardiothoracic surgery: Survey of North American general surgery residents

BACKGROUND Applications to cardiothoracic surgery (CTS) training programs have declined precipitously. The viewpoints of potential applicants, general surgery residents, have not yet been assessed. Their perceptions are crucial to understanding the cause and formulating appropriate changes in our educational system. METHODS An initial survey instrument was content-validated, and the final instrument was distributed electronically between March 24 and May 2, 2008 through 251 general surgery program directors to all Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education-accredited general surgery residents (7508). RESULTS The response rate was 29% (2153 residents; 89% programs). Respondents demographics matched existing data; 6% were committed to CTS, and 26% reported prior or current interest in CTS. Interest waned after postgraduate year 3. Interest correlated with CTS rotation duration. Of the respondents committed to CTS, 76% had mentors (71% were cardiothoracic surgeons). CTS had the most shortcomings among 9 subspecialties. Job security and availability accounted for 46% of reported shortcomings (3 to 14 times higher than other subspecialties). Work schedule accounted for 25%. Length of training was not a very important factor, although it was identified as an option to increase interest in CTS. Residents who were undecided or uninterested in CTS were twice as likely to cite the ability to balance work and personal life as important than residents who chose CTS. CONCLUSIONS The dominant concern documented in the survey is job security and availability. The importance of mentorship and exposure to CTS faculty in promoting interest was also evident. Decision makers should consider these findings when planning changes in education and the specialty.

Hennepin Health: A Safety-Net Accountable Care Organization For The Expanded Medicaid Population

Health care payment and delivery models that challenge providers to be accountable for outcomes have fueled interest in community-level partnerships that address the behavioral, social, and economic determinants of health. We describe how Hennepin Health--a county-based safety-net accountable care organization in Minnesota--has forged such a partnership to redesign the health care workforce and improve the coordination of the physical, behavioral, social, and economic dimensions of care for an expanded community of Medicaid beneficiaries. Early outcomes suggest that the program has had an impact in shifting care from hospitals to outpatient settings. For example, emergency department visits decreased 9.1 percent between 2012 and 2013, while outpatient visits increased 3.3 percent. An increasing percentage of patients have received diabetes, vascular, and asthma care at optimal levels. At the same time, Hennepin Health has realized savings and reinvested them in future improvements. Hennepin Health offers lessons for counties, states, and public hospitals grappling with the problem of how to make the best use of public funds in serving expanded Medicaid populations and other communities with high needs.

Factors Affecting Interest in Cardiothoracic Surgery: Survey of North American General Surgery Residents

BACKGROUND Applications to cardiothoracic surgery (CTS) training programs have declined precipitously. The viewpoints of potential applicants, general surgery residents, have not yet been assessed. Their perceptions are crucial to understanding the cause and formulating appropriate changes in our educational system. METHODS An initial survey instrument was content-validated, and the final instrument was distributed electronically between March 24 and May 2, 2008 through 251 general surgery program directors to all Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education-accredited general surgery residents (7,508). RESULTS The response rate was 29% (2153 residents; 89% programs). Respondents demographics matched existing data; 6% were committed to CTS, and 26% reported prior or current interest in CTS. Interest waned after postgraduate year 3. Interest correlated with CTS rotation duration. Of the respondents committed to CTS, 76% had mentors (71% were cardiothoracic surgeons). CTS had the most shortcomings among 9 subspecialties. Job security and availability accounted for 46% of reported shortcomings (3 to 14 times higher than other subspecialties). Work schedule accounted for 25%. Length of training was not a very important factor, although it was identified as an option to increase interest in CTS. Residents who were undecided or uninterested in CTS were twice as likely to cite the ability to balance work and personal life as important than residents who chose CTS. CONCLUSIONS The dominant concern documented in the survey is job security and availability. The importance of mentorship and exposure to CTS faculty in promoting interest was also evident. Decision makers should consider these findings when planning changes in education and the specialty.

The Nation׳s Physician Workforce and Future Challenges

There is much debate about the adequacy of the U.S. physician workforce and projections of its future size, distribution and composition. Beginning with 3 observations about the workforce we believe are largely not subject to dispute, we address the debate by providing an overview of the current state of the workforce and Graduate Medical Education in the United States; a brief history of both calls for graduate medical education reform since 1910 and the recent, intense debate about the reliability of workforce projections; and a discussion of the challenges to understanding the physician workforce. We draw 3 concluding observations: (1) Precisely because projections can be unpredictable in their impact on both physician workforce behavior and public policy development, policy makers need to devote more attention to workforce projections, not less. (2) More research devoted specifically to the workforce implications of delivery and payment reforms is strongly needed. (3) Such research must be pursued with a sense of urgency, given the rapid aging of the Baby Boom generation, which will put a disproportionate demand on the nations physician workforce.

Oncology Workforce: Results of the ASCO 2007 Program Directors Survey

The supply of oncologists is projected to increase by 14%, but the demand for oncology visits is projected to increase by 48% because of a growing aging population and an increase in the number of cancer survivors. Multiple strategies must be implemented to ensure continued access to quality cancer care, such as increasing the number of oncology training positions.

Will new care delivery solve the primary care physician shortage?: A call for more rigorous evaluation.

Transformations in care delivery and payment models that make care more efficient are leading some to question whether there will really be a shortage of primary care physicians. While it is encouraging to see numerous federal and state policy levers in place to support greater accountability and coordination of care, it is too early to know whether these efforts will change current and future primary care physician workforce needs. More research is needed to inform whether efforts to reduce cost and improve quality of care and population health will help alleviate or further exacerbate expected primary care physician shortages.

The changing physician workforce landscape: implications for physical medicine and rehabilitation.

Salsberg E, Erikson C: The changing physician workforce landscape: implications for physical medicine and rehabilitation. Am J Phys Med Rehabil 2007;86:838–844.