Cleusa P. Ferri

Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study.

BACKGROUND 100 years after the first description, Alzheimers disease is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. We used the Delphi consensus method to determine dementia prevalence for each world region. METHODS 12 international experts were provided with a systematic review of published studies on dementia and were asked to provide prevalence estimates for every WHO world region, for men and women combined, in 5-year age bands from 60 to 84 years, and for those aged 85 years and older. UN population estimates and projections were used to estimate numbers of people with dementia in 2001, 2020, and 2040. We estimated incidence rates from prevalence, remission, and mortality. FINDINGS Evidence from well-planned, representative epidemiological surveys is scarce in many regions. We estimate that 24.3 million people have dementia today, with 4.6 million new cases of dementia every year (one new case every 7 seconds). The number of people affected will double every 20 years to 81.1 million by 2040. Most people with dementia live in developing countries (60% in 2001, rising to 71% by 2040). Rates of increase are not uniform; numbers in developed countries are forecast to increase by 100% between 2001 and 2040, but by more than 300% in India, China, and their south Asian and western Pacific neighbours. INTERPRETATION We believe that the detailed estimates in this paper constitute the best currently available basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources.

The global prevalence of dementia: A systematic review and metaanalysis

The evidence base on the prevalence of dementia is expanding rapidly, particularly in countries with low and middle incomes. A reappraisal of global prevalence and numbers is due, given the significant implications for social and public policy and planning.

Prevalence of dementia in Latin America, India, and China: a population-based cross-sectional survey

Summary Background Studies have suggested that the prevalence of dementia is lower in developing than in developed regions. We investigated the prevalence and severity of dementia in sites in low-income and middle-income countries according to two definitions of dementia diagnosis. Methods We undertook one-phase cross-sectional surveys of all residents aged 65 years and older (n=14 960) in 11 sites in seven low-income and middle-income countries (China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, and Peru). Dementia diagnosis was made according to the culturally and educationally sensitive 10/66 dementia diagnostic algorithm, which had been prevalidated in 25 Latin American, Asian, and African centres; and by computerised application of the dementia criterion from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM IV). We also compared prevalence of DSM-IV dementia in each of the study sites with that from estimates in European studies. Findings The prevalence of DSM-IV dementia varied widely, from 0·3% (95% CI 0·1–0·5) in rural India to 6·3% (5·0–7·7) in Cuba. After standardisation for age and sex, DSM-IV prevalence in urban Latin American sites was four-fifths of that in Europe (standardised morbidity ratio 80 [95% CI 70–91]), but in China the prevalence was only half (56 [32–91] in rural China), and in India and rural Latin America a quarter or less of the European prevalence (18 [5–34] in rural India). 10/66 dementia prevalence was higher than that of DSM-IV dementia, and more consistent across sites, varying between 5·6% (95% CI 4·2–7·0) in rural China and 11·7% (10·3–13·1) in the Dominican Republic. The validity of the 847 of 1345 cases of 10/66 dementia not confirmed by DSM-IV was supported by high levels of associated disability (mean WHO Disability Assessment Schedule II score 33·7 [SD 28·6]). Interpretation As compared with the 10/66 dementia algorithm, the DSM-IV dementia criterion might underestimate dementia prevalence, especially in regions with low awareness of this emerging public-health problem. Funding Wellcome Trust (UK); WHO; the US Alzheimers Association; and Fondo Nacional De Ciencia Y Tecnologia, Consejo De Desarrollo Cientifico Y Humanistico, and Universidad Central De Venezuela (Venezuela).

Contribution of chronic diseases to disability in elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based survey

Summary Background Disability in elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes is little studied; according to Global Burden of Disease estimates, visual impairment is the leading contributor to years lived with disability in this population. We aimed to assess the contribution of physical, mental, and cognitive chronic diseases to disability, and the extent to which sociodemographic and health characteristics account for geographical variation in disability. Methods We undertook cross-sectional surveys of residents aged older than 65 years (n=15 022) in 11 sites in seven countries with low and middle incomes (China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, and Peru). Disability was assessed with the 12-item WHO disability assessment schedule 2.0. Dementia, depression, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were ascertained by clinical assessment; diabetes, stroke, and heart disease by self-reported diagnosis; and sensory, gastrointestinal, skin, limb, and arthritic disorders by self-reported impairment. Independent contributions to disability scores were assessed by zero-inflated negative binomial regression and Poisson regression to generate population-attributable prevalence fractions (PAPF). Findings In regions other than rural India and Venezuela, dementia made the largest contribution to disability (median PAPF 25·1% [IQR 19·2–43·6]). Other substantial contributors were stroke (11·4% [1·8–21·4]), limb impairment (10·5% [5·7–33·8]), arthritis (9·9% [3·2–34·8]), depression (8·3% [0·5–23·0]), eyesight problems (6·8% [1·7–17·6]), and gastrointestinal impairments (6·5% [0·3–23·1]). Associations with chronic diseases accounted for around two-thirds of prevalent disability. When zero inflation was taken into account, between-site differences in disability scores were largely attributable to compositional differences in health and sociodemographic characteristics. Interpretation On the basis of empirical research, dementia, not blindness, is overwhelmingly the most important independent contributor to disability for elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes. Chronic diseases of the brain and mind deserve increased prioritisation. Besides disability, they lead to dependency and present stressful, complex, long-term challenges to carers. Societal costs are enormous. Funding Wellcome Trust; WHO; US Alzheimers Association; Fondo Nacional de Ciencia Y Tecnologia, Consejo de Desarrollo Cientifico Y Humanistico, Universidad Central de Venezuela.

The protocols for the 10/66 dementia research group population-based research programme

BackgroundLatin America, China and India are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic ageing with an increasing number of people with dementia. The 10/66 Dementia Research Groups title refers to the 66% of people with dementia that live in developing countries and the less than one tenth of population-based research carried out in those settings. This paper describes the protocols for the 10/66 population-based and intervention studies that aim to redress this imbalance.Methods/designCross-sectional comprehensive one phase surveys have been conducted of all residents aged 65 and over of geographically defined catchment areas in ten low and middle income countries (India, China, Nigeria, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico, Peru and Argentina), with a sample size of between 1000 and 3000 (generally 2000). Each of the studies uses the same core minimum data set with cross-culturally validated assessments (dementia diagnosis and subtypes, mental disorders, physical health, anthropometry, demographics, extensive non communicable disease risk factor questionnaires, disability/functioning, health service utilisation, care arrangements and caregiver strain). Nested within the population based studies is a randomised controlled trial of a caregiver intervention for people with dementia and their families (ISRCTN41039907; ISRCTN41062011; ISRCTN95135433; ISRCTN66355402; ISRCTN93378627; ISRCTN94921815). A follow up of 2.5 to 3.5 years will be conducted in 7 countries (China, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, Peru and Argentina) to assess risk factors for incident dementia, stroke and all cause and cause-specific mortality; verbal autopsy will be used to identify causes of death.DiscussionThe 10/66 DRG baseline population-based studies are nearly complete. The incidence phase will be completed in 2009. All investigators are committed to establish an anonymised file sharing archive with monitored public access. Our aim is to create an evidence base to empower advocacy, raise awareness about dementia, and ensure that the health and social care needs of older people are anticipated and met.

Gravidez na adolescência: perfil sócio-demográfico e comportamental de uma população da periferia de São Paulo, Brasil

To identify the socio-demographic behavioral profile of low-income pregnant teenagers, 1,000 adolescents admitted to a Brazilian public maternity hospital from July 24, 2001, to November 27, 2002, were interviewed. Socio-demographic and behavioral variables were assessed through a questionnaire. Over the 492 days of the study, 24.3% of admissions were adolescents (930 for childbirth and 70 for miscarriage). Mean maternal age was 17 years. Most teenagers (72.9%) lived near the hospital. 930 (93%) belonged to socioeconomic classes C, D, and E. School dropout was identified in 67.3% of the total. 80.1% of the subjects were giving birth for the first time. 81.2% had not planned the pregnancy, and 23.8% had been using some contraceptive method. 67.4% had vaginal deliveries. Some 13.3% of the newborns were premature and 15.9% had low birth weight. 17.3% of these adolescent mothers reported smoking during pregnancy, with 2.8% reporting alcohol and 1.7% illicit drugs. Teenage pregnancy is a complex phenomenon associated with various economic, educational, and behavioral factors. The study provides importance references for public policies to prevent teenage pregnancy.

Dementia incidence and mortality in middle-income countries, and associations with indicators of cognitive reserve: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based cohort study

Summary Background Results of the few cohort studies from countries with low incomes or middle incomes suggest a lower incidence of dementia than in high-income countries. We assessed incidence of dementia according to criteria from the 10/66 Dementia Research Group and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) IV, the effect of dementia at baseline on mortality, and the independent effects of age, sex, socioeconomic position, and indicators of cognitive reserve. Methods We did a population-based cohort study of all people aged 65 years and older living in urban sites in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico, and China, with ascertainment of incident 10/66 and DSM-IV dementia 3–5 years after cohort inception. We used questionnaires to obtain information about age in years, sex, educational level, literacy, occupational attainment, and number of household assets. We obtained information about mortality from all sites. For participants who had died, we interviewed a friend or relative to ascertain the likelihood that they had dementia before death. Findings 12 887 participants were interviewed at baseline. 11 718 were free of dementia, of whom 8137 (69%) were reinterviewed, contributing 34 718 person-years of follow-up. Incidence for 10/66 dementia varied between 18·2 and 30·4 per 1000 person-years, and were 1·4–2·7 times higher than were those for DSM-IV dementia (9·9–15·7 per 1000 person-years). Mortality hazards were 1·56–5·69 times higher in individuals with dementia at baseline than in those who were dementia-free. Informant reports suggested a high incidence of dementia before death; overall incidence might be 4–19% higher if these data were included. 10/66 dementia incidence was independently associated with increased age (HR 1·67; 95% CI 1·56–1·79), female sex (0·72; 0·61–0·84), and low education (0·89; 0·81–0·97), but not with occupational attainment (1·04; 0·95–1·13). Interpretation Our results provide supportive evidence for the cognitive reserve hypothesis, showing that in middle-income countries as in high-income countries, education, literacy, verbal fluency, and motor sequencing confer substantial protection against the onset of dementia. Funding Wellcome Trust Health Consequences of Population Change Programme, WHO, US Alzheimers Association, FONACIT/ CDCH/ UCV

Prevalence of stroke and related burden among older people living in Latin America, India and China

Objectives Despite the growing importance of stroke in developing countries, little is known of stroke burden in survivors. The authors investigated the prevalence of self-reported stroke, stroke-related disability, dependence and care-giver strain in Latin America (LA), China and India. Methods Cross-sectional surveys were conducted on individuals aged 65+ (n=15 022) living in specified catchment areas. Self-reported stroke diagnosis, disability, care needs and care giver burden were assessed using a standardised protocol. For those reporting stroke, the correlates of disability, dependence and care-giver burden were estimated at each site using Poisson or linear regression, and combined meta-analytically. Results The prevalence of self-reported stroke ranged between 6% and 9% across most LA sites and urban China, but was much lower in urban India (1.9%), and in rural sites in India (1.1%), China (1.6%) and Peru (2.7%). The proportion of stroke survivors needing care varied between 20% and 39% in LA sites but was higher in rural China (44%), urban China (54%) and rural India (73%). Comorbid dementia and depression were the main correlates of disability and dependence. Conclusion The prevalence of stroke in urban LA and Chinese sites is nearly as high as in industrialised countries. High levels of disability and dependence in the other mainly rural and less-developed sites suggest underascertainment of less severe cases as one likely explanation for the lower prevalence in those settings. As the health transition proceeds, a further increase in numbers of older stroke survivors is to be anticipated. In addition to prevention, stroke rehabilitation and long-term care needs should be addressed.

Prevalence, Distribution, and Impact of Mild Cognitive Impairment in Latin America, China, and India: A 10/66 Population-Based Study

A set of cross-sectional surveys carried out in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Peru, Mexico, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, China, and India reveal the prevalence and between-country variation in mild cognitive impairment at a population level.

Measuring disability across cultures - the psychometric properties of the WHODAS II in older people from seven low- and middle-income countries. The 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based survey

We evaluated the psychometric properties of the 12‐item interviewer‐administered screener version of the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule – version II (WHODAS II) among older people living in seven low‐ and middle‐income countries. Principal component analysis (PCA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and Mokken analyses were carried out to test for unidimensionality, hierarchical structure, and measurement invariance across 10/66 Dementia Research Group sites.