Clifford Winston

A DYNAMIC EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLD VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND UTILIZATION

In this article we develop a dynamic model of household vehicle ownership and utilization behavior by using data that were generated before, during, and after the 1979 energy crisis. The principal empirical findings are that households have maintained a distinct preference for American over foreign cars, but also have strong brand loyalties. The results suggest that notwithstanding recent financial trends, U.S. firms must continue to make technological improvements in their vehicles and must combat the brand loyalty that has developed for foreign vehicles if the domestic automobile industry is to be viable at the present scale of operations.

The value of automobile travel time: implications for congestion policy

Abstract Public policy has remained stoutly resistant to the economic professions call to use congestion tolls to minimize the social costs from automobile congestion. This paper explores this issue by using stated preference models to estimate the value that commuters are willing to pay to save travel time. We find that this value is low and surprisingly insensitive to travel conditions and how toll revenues are used. It appears that even high-income commuters, having adjusted to congestion through their modal, residential, workplace, and departure time choices, simply do not value travel time savings enough to benefit substantially from tolls.

Enhancing the performance of the deregulated air transportation system.

IN A DRAMATIC BREAK with past policy, the U.S. commercial air transportation system was deregulated in 1978. Although deregulation was initially popular, primarily because it led to lowerfares, public uneasiness has recently set in.1 Airport congestion and flight delays, increased concerns with safety, and rising fares in less competitive markets have all been attributed to the change in the regulatory environment. But, as illustrated in figure 1, deregulation is only one among many influences on the air transportation system. Equally influential are technological change, macroeconomic performance, and public policies besides those having to do with economic regulation. Because all these influences are interdependent, each must operate in accord with the others or the system can become disrupted. This paper focuses on improving the air system by aligning public policy regarding mergers, airport pricing and investment, and safety with the traffic volumes and patterns that exist under deregulation. We

Does Antitrust Policy Improve Consumer Welfare? Assessing the Evidence

This paper reviews the literature and assesses the effects of antitrust policy and enforcement on consumer welfare. We find no evidence that antitrust policy in the areas of monopolization, collusion, and mergers has provided much benefit to consumers and, in some instances, we find evidence that it may have lowered consumer welfare. We also do not find any evidence that antitrust policy has deterred firms from engaging in actions that could harm consumers. We identify various reasons for the apparent ineffectiveness of antitrust policy, offer preliminary policy recommendations, and suggest ways in which economists could more fully assess antitrust policy.

THE DEMAND FOR FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION: MODELS AND APPLICATIONS

Abstract This paper provides an overview of models of the demand for freight tranportation and applications of these models. Aggregate and disaggregate freight demand models are presented and critically evaluated with regard to conceptual coherence and estimability. These models are then discussed in the context of various freight transportation issues including the extent and nature of intermodal competition, the importance of service quality, the desirability and effects of changes in the regulatory environment, and forecasting freight flows that are carried by existing or new freight transportation modes. The paper concludes with suggestions for further work to be done in the area of freight demand.

An Exploration of the Offset Hypothesis Using Disaggregate Data: the Case of Airbags and Antilock Brakes

The offset hypothesis predicts consumers adapt to innovations that improve safety by becoming less vigilant about safety. Previous tests have used aggregate data that may confound the effect of a safety policy with those consumers who are most affected by it. We test the hypothesis using disaggregate data to analyze the effects of airbags and antilock brakes on automobile safety. We find that safety-conscious drivers are more likely than other drivers to acquire airbags and antilock brakes but these safety devices do not have a significant effect on collisions or injuries, suggesting drivers trade off enhanced safety for speedier trips.

Direct‐to‐Consumer Advertising and the Demand for Cholesterol‐Reducing Drugs*

In August 1997, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reinterpreted its advertising regulations to ease limits on the use of broadcast media when advertising prescription drugs directly to consumers. We estimate the effect of direct‐to‐consumer advertising on demand, using 1995–2000 data from the market for the statin class of cholesterol‐reducing drugs. We find no statistically significant effect from any form of advertising and promotion on new statin prescriptions or renewals and no evidence of adverse market effects from advertising or the FDA policy change. We did find evidence, however, that television advertising increased the proportion of cholesterol patients who had been successfully treated, which suggests that advertising reinforces compliance with drug therapy.

Fundamental flaws of social regulation: The case of airplane noise

This article provides an economic assessment of federal regulatory policy toward airplane noise as encapsulated in the 1990 Airport Noise and Capacity Act (ANCA). This act mandated the elimination of certain aircraft, such as the Boeing 727 and DC‐9, from all U.S. airports by the end of 1999 to meet quieter noise requirements. We find that the present discounted benefits of the ANCA, reflected in higher property values for homeowners, fall

Airline Deregulation and Public Policy

5 billion short of the ANCAs cost to airlines, reflected in the reduced economic life of their capital stock. More fundamentally, we find that the net benefits that could have been generated by an economically optimal airplane noise tax amount to only

The Welfare Effects of ICC Rate Regulation Revisited

0.2 billion (present value). It appears that noise regulations have generated substantial costs to society when, in fact, there was little justification on efficiency grounds for regulatory intervention in the first place.