Cody L. Knutson

The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes

The role of extreme weather events in shaping people’s climate change beliefs and adaptation attitudes has been extensively studied and discussed in academic literature, the popular press, and policy circles. In this manuscript, we contribute to the debate by using data from pre- and post-extreme event surveys to examine the effects of the 2012 Midwestern US drought on agricultural advisors’ climate change beliefs, adaptation attitudes, and risk perceptions. We found that neither climate change beliefs nor attitudes toward adaptation changed significantly as a result of the drought. Risk perceptions did change, however, with advisors becoming more concerned about risks from drought and pests and less concerned about risks related to flooding and ponding. Though increased risk perceptions were significantly associated with more favorable adaptation attitudes, the effects were not large enough to cause an overall shift to more favorable attitudes toward adaptation. The results suggest that extreme climate events might not cause significant shifts in climate beliefs, at least not immediately. Additionally, the results caution that policy designs that rely on increasing risk perceptions to motivate action on climate change may be overestimating the effects of extreme events on feeling at risk, at least in the context of buffered systems such as large commercial agriculture in the US.

Decadal Climate Information Needs of Stakeholders for Decision Support in Water and Agriculture Production Sectors: A Case Study in the Missouri River Basin

Many decadal climate prediction efforts have been initiated under phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. There is considerable ongoing discussion about model deficiencies,initializationtechniques, anddatarequirements,but not muchattentionis beinggiventodecadal climate information (DCI) needs of stakeholders for decision support. Here, the authors report the results of exploratory activities undertaken to assess DCI needs in water resources and agriculture sectors, using the Missouri River basin asa case study.This assessmentwas achievedthroughdiscussionswith 120 stakeholders. Stakeholders’ awareness of decadal dry and wet spells and their societal impacts in the basin are described, and stakeholders’ DCI needs and potential barriers to their use of DCI are enumerated. The authors find that impacts, including economic impacts, of decadal climate variability (DCV) on water and agricultural productioninthebasinaredistinctlyidentifiableandcharacterizable.Stakeholdershaveclearnotionsabouttheir needs for DCI and have offered specific suggestions as to how these might be met. However, while stakeholders are eager to have climate information, including decadal climate outlooks (DCOs), there are many barriers to the use of such information. Thefirst and foremost barrier is that the credibility of DCOs is yet to be established. Second, the nature of institutional rules and regulations, laws, and legal precedents that pose obstacles to the use of DCOs must be better understood and means to modify these, where possible, must be sought. For the benefit of climate scientists, these and other stakeholder needs are also articulated in this paper.

Agricultural Advisors as Climate Information Intermediaries: Exploring Differences in Capacity to Communicate Climate

AbstractAlthough agricultural production faces chronic stress associated with extreme precipitation events, high temperatures, drought, and shifts in climate conditions, adoption of climate information into agricultural decision making has been relatively limited. Agricultural advisors have been shown to play important roles as information intermediaries between scientists and farmers, brokering, translating, and adding value to agronomic and economic information of use in agricultural management decision making. Yet little is known about the readiness of different types of agricultural advisors to use weather and climate information to help their clients manage risk under increasing climate uncertainty. More than 1700 agricultural advisors in four midwestern states (Nebraska, Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan) completed a web-based survey during the spring of 2012 about their use of weather and climate information, public or private sector employment, and roles as information intermediaries in three advising s...

Farmer perceptions of sustainable agriculture practices and drought risk reduction in Nebraska, USA

Social factors, such as farming methods, have an impact on farm vulnerability to drought, but have received little research or policy attention. Some researchers and advocates have argued that sustainable agriculture systems are less vulnerable to climate risk than conventional systems because sustainable agriculture requires producers to have skills promoting adaptability. In this paper, we investigate producers’ perceptions on the use of sustainable agriculture in reducing drought risk, and what they believe would help them better adapt to drought. We surveyed and interviewed farmer members of two sustainable agriculture organizations in Nebraska, USA, during a multi-year drought period from 1999 to 2007. Producers reported implementing a range of practices, such as organic soil building techniques, reduced tillage, targeted crop selection and diversification of crop and livestock production systems, to reduce their drought vulnerability. Although some practices were implemented specifically to reduce drought risk, producers felt that the practices they implemented as part of their normal operation were largely responsible for reducing their risk. Respondents held mixed views on the effects of insurance and farm programs on their drought management decisions. Finally, producers indicated that their ability to adapt to drought is limited by a number of barriers, especially a lack of capital and the need to respond to markets and maximize production to maintain cash flows.

The role of water conservation in drought planning

Drought is a natural part of climate in most regions around the world. We should not be surprised when drought occurs but expect and account for it in our management plans. Yet, every year, severe drought occurs somewhere in the United States, resulting in millions, if not billions, of dollars in financial drought losses and untold stress on people, businesses, and the environment. Although many livelihoods and sectors are relatively resilient to short-term drought, there are times when exceptional drought circumstances undermine our usual management strategies. Historically, when this has happened, governments and other decision makers have implemented a wide range of ad-hoc drought relief measures to get through the hard times. Although often providing important emergency assistance, these crisis management efforts are frequently highly political, untimely, inefficient, and poorly targeted (Wilhite et al. 2005). To address these issues, a new paradigm has emerged among drought and other hazard planners that focuses more attention on implementing proactive risk management strategies before a disaster occurs. Planners are increasingly developing drought mitigation and preparedness plans to increase a regions or sectors long-term resiliency to drought and to help ensure the implementation of appropriate and well-coordinated response actions during drought. Water conservation plays

A Drought-Planning Methodology for Ranchers in the Great Plains

On the Ground Ranch drought planning is important for identifying management priorities, proactively evaluating management options before a drought occurs, and ultimately reducing the effects of drought on an operation and the grasslands that support it. An engagement activity with ranchers and ranch advisors developed a drought planning methodology to help other ranchers develop their own individual ranch drought plans. Although the ranchers and advisors who participated differed some on specific approaches, they agreed on the benefits of incorporating drought into overall ranch planning well in advance of drought and acknowledged the reality of having to make adjustments as situations arise.

Methods and Tools for Drought Analysis and Management

Drought is an ambiguous concept. It is often difficult to tell when you are in a drought because of its slow, protracted nature and lack of news-grabbing impacts—such as water inundating communities or buildings burning—associated with other natural disasters. It is equally difficult to track the effect of drought on people, their livelihoods, and the environment because of the ubiquitous role that water plays in our world. As a result, we often wait until we are in the midst of a water crisis to seek ad hoc solutions, which can be costly, inefficient, and highly politicized.