Colin Irwin

How public opinion polls were used in support of the Northern Ireland peace process 1

Eight surveys of public opinion were conducted in support of the Northern Ireland peace process between April 1996 and May 2000. Critically, the questions for seven of these polls were drafted and agreed with the co-operation of party negotiators to enhance the peace process by increasing party inclusiveness, developing issues and language, testing party policies, helping to set deadlines and increase the overall transparency of negotiations through the publication of technical analysis and media reports. This paper briefly reviews the principle findings of these polls; their role in the political development and implementation of the Belfast Agreement; the qualitative and quantitative methods used; and finally how the lessons from this work might now be applied to the resolution of conflicts elsewhere.

Devolution and the State of the Northern Ireland Peace Process

About the Poll This research was undertaken by Dr. Colin Irwin of the Centre for the Study of Ethnic Conflict in the School of Politics at Queen’s University Belfast. The project was independently funded by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust. The public opinion survey work was conducted by Market Research Northern Ireland between January 31st and February 6th to produce 1000 ‘face to face’ interviews that represented a cross section of the adult population of Northern Ireland in terms of age, gender, social class, religious affiliation and geographical area. In all respects the poll was undertaken within the guidelines set out by the Market Research Society (UK) and in accordance with their code of conduct. This poll is the ninth in a series published by the Belfast Telegraph. They are reviewed in the author’s book The People’s Peace Process in Northern Ireland (Palgrave 2002) with full statistical reports available at http://www.peacepolls.org.

After the Elections

All the articles produced for the Belfast Telegraph were now rewritten in a more academic style and published with my colleagues on the ‘Peace Building and Public Policy’ project, Tom Hadden and Fred Boal. Tom had an interest in the local current affairs magazine Fortnight. So, with a grant from Rowntree, we were able to include a free booklet with the December issue developing a theme of Tom’s ‘Separation or Sharing’.

A people's peace process for Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Abstract Public opinion polling has been used in Northern Ireland, Macedonia and Cyprus to develop policies and agreements that have wide popular support. Using the same methods of inter-track public diplomacy, a poll was conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2004 to find out what the people there believe needs to be done to achieve reconciliation, economic self-sustainability and effective government in the future. Apart from the controversial topic of responsibility for the war, the poll demonstrated a strong consensus on the way ahead, including municipal and constitutional reform, if undertaken in the context of economic development and EU accession. An ongoing programme of such research should help politicians, their electorate and the international community to achieve these objectives.

The Northern Ireland ‘Peace Polls’

Nine surveys of public opinion were conducted in support of the Northern Ireland peace process between April 1996 and February 2003. Critically the questions for eight of these polls were drafted and agreed with the co-operation of party negotiators to enhance the peace process by increasing party inclusiveness, developing issues and language, testing party policies, helping to set deadlines and increase the overall transparency of negotiations through the publication of technical analysis and media reports. This paper reviews the principal findings of these polls and their role in the political development and implementation of the Belfast Agreement. Some conclusions are also drawn with regard to the general application of these methods to similar programmes of research elsewhere. For earlier reviews of some of these polls see: Irwin, 1999a, 2001a, b and c and 2002a; for reviews of the methods see: Irwin, 2001d, 2002a and 2004 and for downloads of all the questionnaires and statistical reports go to the project website at: 〈 http://www.peacepolls.org 〉 .

Implementation of the Belfast Agreement

For those directly involved in the talks the signing of the Belfast Agreement was met with not only feelings of pure joy but also with the physical realities of mental and emotional exhaustion. The people of Northern Ireland had been at war with themselves and their neighbours for a quarter of a century but now there was a very real hope that that tragedy would come to an end. An end to the killing, a pact between old enemies, was it really possible?

A Comprehensive Settlement

Following the publication of the results of the ‘In Search of a Settlement’ poll the eight parties still in the talks started to negotiate the details of an agreement in earnest. Some parties even requested electronic copies of the statistics so that they would be able to undertake further analysis. All the major elements of a comprehensive settlement, and public attitudes towards them, were now plainly visible for everyone to see.

Peace Building and Public Policy

In the deeply divided society of Northern Ireland generations of conflict have created a situation in which all aspects of political, economic, social and cultural life have fallen victim to the ill-effects of discrimination and segregation, distrust, bitterness and violence. Depending largely on an individual’s particular intellectual or practical interests the critical solution to such endemic dysfunction can range the spectrum of these activities from the reform of the political institutions of government (top-down) to how children are socialised and educated in school (bottom-up). But where to start? The answer is everywhere and any one place is almost as important as any other. The starting point depends on the individual and what they can do to make a difference.

The Future of the Stormont Talks

The first poll undertaken with the parties had been published on 7, 8 and 9 of April 1997, a few weeks before the general election of 1 May 1997, with the deliberate intention that the results might stimulate a public debate on the political future of Northern Ireland. It didn’t. Although 94 per cent of the people wanted a negotiated settlement the parties remained caught up in questions of procedure. Who would negotiate with whom and under what conditions?

In Search of a Settlement

The drafting of the questionnaire for this poll had been nearly a year in the making. Some issues, such as police reform, were meant to have been included in the March/April 1997 poll but were left out for lack of space. All the questions had been worked on through the election period of the spring and the summer break. Even when the talks were in recess the drafting and refining of the various options went ahead with the designated group of party negotiators.