Colin M. Beier

Resilience and vulnerability of northern regions to social and environmental change

Abstract The arctic tundra and boreal forest were once considered the last frontiers on earth because of their vast expanses remote from agricultural land-use change and industrial development. These regions are now, however, experiencing environmental and social changes that are as rapid as those occurring anywhere on earth. This paper summarizes the role of northern regions in the global system and provides a blueprint for assessing the factors that govern their sensitivity to social and environmental change.

Machine learning approaches for forest classification and change analysis using multi-temporal Landsat TM images over Huntington Wildlife Forest

This research investigated three machine learning approaches – decision trees, random forest, and support vector machines – to classify local forest communities at the Huntington Wildlife Forest (HWF), located in the central Adirondack Mountains of New York State, and to identify forest type change over a 20-year period using multi-temporal Landsat satellite Thematic Mapper (TM) data. Because some forest species are sensitive to topographic characteristics, three terrain correction methods – C correction, statistical–empirical (SE) correction, and Variable Empirical Coefficient Algorithm (VECA) – were utilized to account for the topographic effects. Results show that the topographic correction slightly improved the classification accuracy although the improvement was not significant based on the McNemar test. Random forest and support vector machines produced higher classification accuracies than decision trees. Besides, random forest- and support vector machine-based multi-temporal classifications better reflected the forest type change seen in the reference data. In addition, topographic features such as elevation and aspect played important roles in characterizing the forest type changes.

Ecosystem Services and Emergent Vulnerability in Managed Ecosystems: A Geospatial Decision-Support Tool

Managed ecosystems experience vulnerabilities when ecological resilience declines and key flows of ecosystem services become depleted or lost. Drivers of vulnerability often include local management actions in conjunction with other external, larger-scale factors. To translate these concepts to management applications, we developed a conceptual model of feedbacks linking the provision of ecosystem services, their use by society, and anthropogenic change. From this model we derived a method to integrate existing geodata at relevant scales and in locally meaningful ways to provide decision-support for adaptive management efforts. To demonstrate our approach, we conducted a case study assessment of southeast Alaska, where managers are concerned with sustaining fish and wildlife resources in areas where intensive logging disturbance has occurred. Individual datasets were measured as indicators of one of three criteria: ecological capacity to support fish/wildlife populations (provision); human acquisition of fish/wildlife resources (use); and intensity of logging and related land-use change (disturbance). Relationships among these processes were analyzed using two methods—a watershed approach and a high-resolution raster—to identify where provision, use and disturbance were spatially coupled across the landscape. Our results identified very small focal areas of social-ecological coupling that, based on post-logging dynamics and other converging drivers of change, may indicate vulnerability resulting from depletion of ecosystem services. We envision our approach can be used to narrow down where adaptive management might be most beneficial, allowing practitioners with limited funds to prioritize efforts needed to address uncertainty and mitigate vulnerability in managed ecosystems.

Effects of Acidic Deposition and Soil Acidification on Sugar Maple Trees in the Adirondack Mountains, New York

We documented the effects of acidic atmospheric deposition and soil acidification on the canopy health, basal area increment, and regeneration of sugar maple (SM) trees across the Adirondack region of New York State, in the northeastern United States, where SM are plentiful but not well studied and where widespread depletion of soil calcium (Ca) has been documented. Sugar maple is a dominant canopy species in the Adirondack Mountain ecoregion, and it has a high demand for Ca. Trees in this region growing on soils with poor acid-base chemistry (low exchangeable Ca and % base saturation [BS]) that receive relatively high levels of atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition exhibited a near absence of SM seedling regeneration and lower crown vigor compared with study plots with relatively high exchangeable Ca and BS and lower levels of acidic deposition. Basal area increment averaged over the 20th century was correlated (p < 0.1) with acid-base chemistry of the Oa, A, and upper B soil horizons. A lack of Adirondack SM regeneration, reduced canopy condition, and possibly decreased basal area growth over recent decades are associated with low concentrations of nutrient base cations in this region that has undergone soil Ca depletion from acidic deposition.

Carbon limitation leads to suppression of first year oak seedlings beneath evergreen understory shrubs in Southern Appalachian hardwood forests

Inhibition of canopy tree recruitment beneath thickets of the evergreen shrubs Rhododendron maximum L. and Kalmia latifolia L. has long been observed in Southern Appalachian forests, yet the mechanisms of this process remain unresolved. We present a first-year account of suppression of oak seedlings in relation to Rhododendron and Kalmia basal area, light and resource availability, seedling performance and the rates of seedling damage (i.e., herbivory). We found no evidence of first-year seedling suppression or significant resource deficiencies beneath thickets of K. latifolia in mature mixed hardwood stands. Suppression beneath R. maximum was apparent during the first growing season. We found that seedling biomass, light availability prior to canopy closure, and seedling tissue C:N ratios were negatively correlated with R. maximum basal area. Basal area of R. maximum was positively correlated with seedling mortality rates, soil [Al], and early-growing season leaf herbivory rates. Seedling growth was positively correlated with light and tissue C:N, while negatively correlated with soil [Al]. Overall, our results support the inhibition model of shade-mediated carbon limitation beneath dense understory shrubs and indicate the potential importance of herbivory and aluminum toxicity as components of a suppression mechanism beneath R. maximum thickets. We present a causal model of first year inhibition beneath R. maximum in the context of our findings and the results of prior studies.

Growth and Collapse of a Resource System: an Adaptive Cycle of Change in Public Lands Governance and Forest Management in Alaska

Large-scale government efforts to develop resources for societal benefit have often experienced cycles of growth and decline that leave behind difficult social and ecological legacies. To understand the origins and outcomes of these failures of resource governance, scholars have applied the framework of the adaptive cycle. In this study, we used the adaptive cycle as a diagnostic approach to trace the drivers and dynamics of forest governance surrounding a boom-bust sequence of industrial forest management in one of the largest-scale resource systems in U.S. history: the Tongass National Forest in southeastern Alaska. Our application of the adaptive cycle combined a historical narrative tracing dynamics in political, institutional, and economic subsystems and a longitudinal analysis of an indicator of overall system behavior (timber harvests). We found that federal policies in concert with global market changes drove transformative change in both forest governance (policy making) and forest management (practices), through creation and dissolution of subsidized long-term lease contracts. Evidence of the systemic resilience provided by these leases was found in the analysis of industry responses to market volatility before and after Tongass-specific federal reforms. Although the lease contracts stabilized the Tongass system for a period of time, they fostered a growing degree of rigidity that contributed to a severe industrial collapse and the subsequent emergence of complex social traps. Broader lessons from the Tongass suggest that large-scale changes occurred only when the nested economic and policy cycles were in coherence, and a systemic effort to minimize social and ecological variability ultimately resulted in catastrophic collapse of governance. This collapse resulted in a pervasive and challenging legacy that prevents Tongass reorganization and limits the adaptive capacity of the larger social-ecological system of southeastern Alaska. Although this legacy has inhibited system renewal for two decades, recent trends indicate the emergence of new opportunities for progress toward sustainable governance of the Tongass National Forest.

Regional growth decline of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and its potential causes

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh) has experienced poor vigor, regeneration failure, and elevated mortality across much of its range, but there has been relatively little attention to its growth rates. Based on a well-replicated dendrochronological network of range-centered populations in the Adirondack Mountains (USA), which encompassed a wide gradient of soil fertility, we observed that the majority of sugar maple trees exhibited negative growth trends in the last several decades, regardless of age, diameter, or soil fertility. Such growth patterns were unexpected, given recent warming and increased moisture availability, as well as reduced acidic deposition, which should have favored growth. Mean basal area increment was greater on base-rich soils, but these stands also experienced sharp reductions in growth. Growth sensitivity of sugar maple to temperature and precipitation was non-stationary during the last century, with overall weaker relationships than expected. Given the favorable competitive status and age structure of the Adirondack sugar maple populations sampled, evidence of widespread growth reductions raises concern over this ecologically and economically important tree. Further study will be needed to establish whether growth declines of sugar maple are occurring more widely across its range.

Assessing Uncertainty in High-Resolution Spatial Climate Data across the US Northeast

Local and regional-scale knowledge of climate change is needed to model ecosystem responses, assess vulnerabilities and devise effective adaptation strategies. High-resolution gridded historical climate (GHC) products address this need, but come with multiple sources of uncertainty that are typically not well understood by data users. To better understand this uncertainty in a region with a complex climatology, we conducted a ground-truthing analysis of two 4 km GHC temperature products (PRISM and NRCC) for the US Northeast using 51 Cooperative Network (COOP) weather stations utilized by both GHC products. We estimated GHC prediction error for monthly temperature means and trends (1980–2009) across the US Northeast and evaluated any landscape effects (e.g., elevation, distance from coast) on those prediction errors. Results indicated that station-based prediction errors for the two GHC products were similar in magnitude, but on average, the NRCC product predicted cooler than observed temperature means and trends, while PRISM was cooler for means and warmer for trends. We found no evidence for systematic sources of uncertainty across the US Northeast, although errors were largest at high elevations. Errors in the coarse-scale (4 km) digital elevation models used by each product were correlated with temperature prediction errors, more so for NRCC than PRISM. In summary, uncertainty in spatial climate data has many sources and we recommend that data users develop an understanding of uncertainty at the appropriate scales for their purposes. To this end, we demonstrate a simple method for utilizing weather stations to assess local GHC uncertainty and inform decisions among alternative GHC products.

Measuring ecosystem capacity to provide regulating services: forest removal and recovery at Hubbard Brook (USA)

In this study, by coupling long-term ecological data with empirical proxies of societal demand for benefits, we measured the capacity of forest watersheds to provide ecosystem services over variable time periods, to different beneficiaries, and in response to discrete perturbations and drivers of change. We revisited one of the earliest ecosystem experiments in North America: the 1963 de-vegetation of a forested catchment at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. Potential benefits of the regulation of water flow, water quality, greenhouse gases, and forest growth were compared between experimental (WS 2) and reference (WS 6) watersheds over a 30-year period. Both watersheds exhibited similarly high capacity for flow regulation, in part because functional loads remained low (i.e., few major storm events) during the de-vegetation period. Drought mitigation capacity, or the maintenance of flows sufficient to satisfy municipal water consumption, was higher in WS 2 due to reduced evapotranspiration associated with loss of plant cover. We also assessed watershed capacity to regulate flows to satisfy different beneficiaries, including hypothetical flood averse and drought averse types. Capacity to regulate water quality was severely degraded during de-vegetation, as nitrate concentrations exceeded drinking water standards on 40% of measurement days. Once forest regeneration began, WS 2 rapidly recovered the capacity to provide safe drinking water, and subsequently mitigated the eutrophication potential of rainwater at a marginally higher level than WS 6. We estimated this additional pollution removal benefit would have to accrue for approximately 65-70 years to offset the net eutrophication cost incurred during forest removal. Overall, our results affirmed the critical role of forest vegetation in water regulation, but also indicated trade-offs associated with forest removal and recovery that partially depend on larger-scale exogenous changes in climate forcing and pollution inputs. We also provide a starting point for integrating long-term ecological research and modeling data into ecosystem services science.

Variation in Soil and Forest Floor Characteristics Along Gradients of Ericaceous, Evergreen Shrub Cover in the Southern Appalachians

Abstract Ericaceous shrubs can influence soil properties in many ecosystems. In this study, we examined how soil and forest floor properties vary among sites with different ericaceous evergreen shrub basal area in the southern Appalachian mountains. We randomly located plots along transects that included open understories and understories with varying amounts of Rhododendron maximum (rosebay rhododendron) and Kalmia latifolia (mountain laurel) at three sites. The three sites were a mid-elevation ridge, a low-elevation cove, and a high-elevation southwest-facing slope. Basal area of R. maximum was more correlated with soil properties of the forest floor than was K. latifolia. Increasing R. maximum basal area was correlated with increasing mass of lower quality litter and humus as indicated by higher C∶N ratios. Moreover, this correlation supports our prediction that understory evergreen shrubs may have considerable effect on forest floor resource heterogeneity in mature stands.