Constantinos Katrakilidis

Spending and revenues in Greece: new evidence from error correction modelling

This paper attempts to re-evaluate the long-run relationship between government spending and revenues in Greece. The analysis is carried out for the period 1974 to 1991 by means of Johansens multivariate cointegration technique and error correction vector autoregressive (ECVAR) modelling. The results provide evidence of a feedback effect between the examined series.

The relationship between oil prices and stock prices: a nonlinear asymmetric cointegration approach

This article investigates the long-run and short-run dynamics between US stock prices and oil prices over the period from 1 January 1992 to 22 November 2013 using the S&P 500 index and West Texas Intermediate spot oil prices. Unlike the majority of previous studies that are based on the conventional time series analysis, we examine for the presence of different sources of nonlinearities, such as structural breaks and asymmetric adjustments in the dynamic links between the investigated markets. The results from the threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) models of Enders and Siklos (2001) in conjunction with the Threshold Error Correction Model estimations provide evidence of asymmetric responses towards the equilibrium.

The dynamic linkages between economic growth, environmental quality and health in Greece

Abstract Increasing economic activity ignoring environmental quality may distort economic growth, leading to a negative rate. The expected deterioration of health in the near future may lead to further environmental degradation, with a continuation of a spiral-type path towards worsening growth and efforts to catch up with the developed economies. Τhis article examines the dynamic interdependence between economic activity, health quality and environmental degradation for Greece over the period 1960–2012. We employ Kuznets-type models and apply several co-integration techniques along with Granger causality tests. The results reveal strong causal effects, running from income towards CO2 and infant mortality. In the multivariate context, a significant long-run impact is directed towards infant mortality, with economic growth performing rather exogenously.

Public support toward tobacco control: consumer responsiveness and policy planning.

OBJECTIVES To explore individual differences in support toward antismoking policies by investigating psychosocial, socioeconomic, and demographic characteristics; smoking restrictions; smoking status; and individually perceived cigarette price. METHODS The empirical analysis uses data from a random sample of 680 consumers and employs a bivariate semiordered probit model. RESULTS Consumer responsiveness shows strong association with optimistic bias, perceived positive and negative consequences of smoking, health status, and family smoking patterns. Smoking status, gender, age, and occupation also affect antismoking policy support. CONCLUSIONS Public support toward tobacco control reflects potential smoking acceptance and social norms, confirming policy effectiveness and current needs for demarketing tobacco use.

Is growth corrupted or bureaucratic? Panel evidence from the enlarged EU

ABSTRACT This article aims at analysing the issue of conditional convergence in the new enlarged European Union (EU) over the period 1995–2012 by means of panel data techniques. We examined the issue of conditional convergence in the enlarged EU giving particular attention to the effects of corruption and bureaucracy on growth controlling for a widely used set of explanatory variables such as investment (domestic and foreign), human capital formation, inflation, general government final consumption and trade openness. Furthermore, we examine if growth responds differently to corruption and bureaucracy in the new EU members by means of two group-specific interaction variables to capture possible different responses to corruption and bureaucracy. The analysis reveals evidence of conditional convergence in the enlarged EU, with investment share, foreign direct investment, human capital, and country openness appearing as robust growth drivers. In contrast, inflation and government consumption rather hamper growth. Furthermore, the effects of corruption and bureaucracy on growth seem to differ across old and new EU members.

Growth and Convergence in the EU-15: More Evidence from the Cohesion Countries

Abstract This paper analyzes income convergence within EU-15 over the period 1995 to 2013. By means of panel data techniques, we examine conditional β-convergence controlling for the impact of some economic factors such as investment in physical and human capital, inflation, government consumption and openness. In addition, the role of two institutional variables, corruption and bureaucracy is examined. We found that corruption, affects negatively the growth, in the full sample. On the contrary bureaucracy, hasn’t any significant effect on the growth performance of the wealthier EU members, while affects rather differently the economic performance of the four cohesion countries, namely Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain, hampering growth.

Assessing economic convergence in the EU: is there a perspective for the 'cohesion countries'?

This article analyses the stochastic income convergence within the EU-15. The empirical analysis uses per capita GDP, in PPP and in constant prices of 2005 for the period 1950 to 2010. Apart from the traditional DF type tests we also account for possible structural changes. In this direction, we employ the Zivot-Andrews (1992) and the Lee-Strazicich (1999, 2003) testing procedures, for one and two breaks, endogenously determined. Furthermore, we apply the Carlino and Mills (1993) methodology proposed for the detection of β-convergence. The overall evidence supports the existence of two discrete clubs, the first by the ‘cohesion countries’ (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) and the second by the remaining members. In particular, there is a clear evidence of convergence within each club, whereas between clubs there is a luck of catching-up effects. Furthermore, investigation of correlation between relative per capita GDP of each country and several factors that are often identified as growth stimulants, namely Total Factor Productivity, FDI, investment and openness confirm, with the exception of Greece, a strong association between these factors and the convergence process. However, progress in the convergence has not been uniform across countries and over time, reflecting the specific interactions between domestic and international factors and their impact on the convergence process of individual countries.

Balkan Area and EU-15: An Empirical Investigation of Income Convergence

This paper empirically explores the issue of income convergence of the Balkan economies with the European Union’s-15 average (EU-15) over the period 1989–2009. The adopted econometric methodology has been suggested by Nahar and Inder (2002) and is considered more efficient in detecting possible catching up effects compared to the relevant conventional methods. The findings of this paper point out the existence of dissimilarities among the examined Balkan economies in the process to catch up with the EU-15. In particular, the results support income convergence with the EU-15 only for Greece and Slovenia.

Competing Theories of Unemployment and Economic Policies: Evidence from the U.S., Swedish and German Economies

The objective of the paper is to evaluate the explanatory power of three competing core interpretations and economic strategy approaches to unemployment. The first is the neo-classical hypothesis according to which the rigidities in the labour market are responsible for the presence of unemployment. The second is the Keynesian hypothesis according to which the market system fails to create adequate effective demand for the full employment of labour. Finally, the third is the classical/Marxian model according to which employment or unemployment are depended on the dynamics of capital accumulation. The econometric analysis uses data from the US, German and Swedish economies which are characterised by quite diverse labour market structures. The results of empirical analysis reveals that the explanatory content of both the Keynesian and the dassical/Marxian core models fared better than the mainstream approach.

Finance, institutions and human development: Evidence from developing countries

The paper aims to examine the role of institutions and human development in financial development at early and developing stages of economic development, using data from 52 developing economies during 1985–2008. In order to provide a more comprehensive assessment, especially of the finance-institutions link, we decompose institutions into economic, political and social; and economic institutions into quality of government, intervention of government, and quality of the legal system. The results demonstrate that: (i) institutional quality can explain international differences in the level of banking sector development; (ii) economic institutions and human development are extremely significant for banking sector development; (iii) the legal system is the dominant dimension of economic institutions; and (iv) the combined reforms of economic institutions matter more than separate institutional reforms.