Consuelo Díaz de la Guardia

Forecasting airborne pollen concentration time series with neural and neuro-fuzzy models

Forecasting airborne pollen concentrations is one of the most studied topics in aerobiology, due to its crucial application to allergology. The most used tools for this problem are single lineal regressions and autoregressive models (ARIMA). Notwithstanding, few works have used more sophisticated tools based in Artificial Intelligence, as are neural or neuro-fuzzy models. In this work, we applied some of these models to forecast olive pollen concentrations in the atmosphere of Granada (Spain). We first studied the overall performance of the selected models, then considering the data segmented into intervals (low, medium and high concentration), to test how they behave on each interval. Experimental results show an advantage of the neuro-fuzzy models against classical statistical methods, although there is still room for improvement.

Olive flowering trends in a large Mediterranean area (Italy and Spain).

The aim of this study was to investigate the main climatic and biological trends related to olive flowering in central-southern Italy compared to those in Andalusia, Spain. Results since 1982 were compared for the two long-series monitoring areas of Cordoba and Perugia, and since 1992–1999 for the short-series areas. The relationship between climatic trends and the biological response of the olive, a widespread culture in the Mediterranean basin, were investigated. An aerobiological method involving capturing pollen released into the atmosphere was utilised as a bioindicator of flowering phenology. The study results confirm the strong relationship between flowering periods and spring temperature trends for the olive. Temperature during March, April and May was the parameter most related to flowering date in the study areas, particularly in Italy. In some cases we found a significant correlation between flowering and past autumn temperatures, probably due to their effect on floral bud dormancy induction, but this phenomenon appeared to be of minor importance in the studied areas. The phenological trend results show the continuous advance of flowering dates to the late 1990s, followed by a relatively stationary time series related to a short-term temperature fluctuation in the Mediterranean area. This latter period probably represents a mesoscale event forced by a macroscale event—the North Atlantic Oscillation. The results reveal that the trend towards increased temperatures, and the consequent flowering advance of some species, indicated some years ago is nowadays not as clear as was expected and should be confirmed over the next few years in the Mediterranean areas under investigation.

Aerobiological analysis of Olea europaea L. pollen in different localities of southern Spain Forecasting models

Pollen from olive trees (Olea europaea L.) is one of the main airborne allergens of the Mediterranean region. We have performed a comparative analysis of the behaviour of Olea pollen in the atmosphere at different localities in southern Spain with different biogeographic and climatic characteristics. Sampling over several years with Burkard or Lanzoni volumetric collectors was performed in the four cities of Córdoba, Jaén, Málaga and Granada. The pollen season spans primarily April to June, with the heaviest concentrations in May and peak days registering: 3890 grains/m (Córdoba), 6730 grains/m (Jaén), 2819 grains/m (Málaga), and 1884 grains/m (Granada). These quantities make these cities prime centres of seasonal allergic rhinitis and bronchial asthma. The main pollen season was defined taking the days registering 95% of the total annual pollen, and by studying the fluctuations between years and seasons in terms of Olea pollen at the different sampling points. Correlation analysis showed that the pollen concentrations on the preceding days, as well as the average accumulated temperature, were the parameters that invariably had significant correlation indices at all sampling points. In addition, the forecast models indicated that these two variables, together with others, predicted a high percentage (up to 80% in Jaén) of the seasonality of this pollen observed in the atmosphere of the different localities studied.

Better prediction of Mediterranean olive production using pollen-based models

Olive oil is a major economic resource of the Mediterranean region. Olive crop management can be improved by models that forecast the variable reproductive biology of olive tree. However, the processes controlling olive harvest are complex on large scales. Here, we study the parameters that influence olive fruit production for developing accurate forecasting models. Seventeen aerobiological sampling points have monitored olive pollen grains in Spain, Italy and Tunisia from 1993 to 2012. Six crop models have been developed at two provinces and country scales. The modelling has been done in two steps: (1) typification and (2) modelling by partial least square regression. Results show that higher pollen indexes and water availability during spring are related to an increase of final fruit production in all the studied area. Higher pollen indexes are also positively correlated with air temperature during early spring and autumn. Furthermore, a decrease of fruit production is related with increasing air temperature during winter and summer. To conclude, we have designed accurate models that allow accurate predictions of olive production.

The effect of air temperature on the starting dates of theUlmus, Platanus andOlea pollen seasons in the SE Iberian Peninsula

A study is made of the effect of air temperature on the start of the pollen seasons of three tree species—Ulmus, Platanus andOlea—in the southeastern Iberian Peninsula. These initial results are based on an aerobiological analysis performed over a 4-year period in the city of Granada, Spain. Sampling was carried out with a Burkard spore trap. The main aim of the present study was to use regression analysis to identify the preseasonal date when these species start to accumulate heat in their floral buds, enabling models to be created that indicate the onset of the pollen season for these taxa. ForUlmus there was no significant correlation between the onset of pollination and the mean temperature during the preceding period, whereasPlatanus presented a significant correlation with mean temperature during the month of January, andOlea with mean temperature during the second fortnight in February and the month of March. ForUlmus, the start of the pollen season ranged between 30 January and 8 February; forPlatanus, between 13 and 17 March; and forOlea, between 20 April and 13 May. The accumulated temperature needed to induce the onset of flowering ranged between 121 and 256°C forUlmus, with values of 428–607°C and 656–881°C forPlatanus andOlea, respectively.

An aerobiological study of Urticaceae pollen in the city of Granada (S. Spain): Correlation with meteorological parameters

An aerobiological study was made of Urticaceae pollen in the city of Granada, relating the mean values of the daily counts to meteorological parameters. Sampling was carried out with a Burkard seven‐day‐recording spore trap from October 1992 to September 1997. This pollen type has an extremely long main pollen season (MPS), with maximum counts in (January) February, March and April, causing numerous cases of human pollinosis throughout the entire Mediterranean region, including Granada. A highly constant intradiurnal variation pattern was obtained showing that the maximum peaks usually occur between 12.00 and 20.00. According to Spearmans correlation coefficient, during the pre‐peak period the parameters which have the greatest effect on the levels of this type of pollen are daily and accumulated temperature and sunshine, accumulated rainfall, and wind direction from the third quadrant; during the post‐peak period these same variables presented significantly negative coefficients. Daily rainfall and rela...

Assessing allergenicity in urban parks: A nature-based solution to reduce the impact on public health

&NA; Urban parks play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services, actively participating in improving the quality of life and welfare of local residents. This paper reports on the application of an index designed to quantify the allergenicity of urban parks in a number of Spanish cities. The index, which records biological and biometric parameters for the tree species growing there, classifies parks in terms of the risk they pose for allergy sufferers, graded as null, low, moderate or high. In this initial phase, the index was applied to 26 green areas in 24 Spanish cities; green areas varied in type (urban park, historical or modern garden, boulevard, square or urban forest), size 1–100 ha), geographical location, species richness, number of trees and tree density (number of trees / ha.). The data obtained were used to calculate the percentage of allergenic species in each park, which varied between 17–67%; density ranged from 100 to 300 trees/ha. The index values recorded ranged from a minimum of .07 to a maximum of .87; a significant correlation was found between index value and both number of trees and tree density. Taking an index value of .30 as the threshold considered sufficient to trigger allergy symptoms in the sensitive population, 12 of the parks studied may be regarded as unhealthy at any time of the year. Corrective measures to mitigate the impact of pollen emissions include the implementation of nature‐based solutions at various levels: planning and design, handling and management, and strengthening of urban green‐infrastructure elements. The index proved to be a useful tool for environmental analysis, and complies with the principles of portability and scalability central to current and horizon scientific research. HighlightsPotential Allergenicity of Spanish Urban Parks was estimated.The value of allergenicity is dependent on density and number of tree species.The Index of Allergenicity is a useful tool of planning and management green spaces.Nature‐Based Solutions allow reducing the impact of allergens on Public Health.

The pollen counts as bioindicator of meteorological trends and tool for assessing the status of endangered species: the case of Artemisia in Sierra Nevada (Spain)

This study sought to analyse the effects of climate change on Artemisia species growing in Sierra Nevada, a high mountain range in the south-east of the Iberian Peninsula, using pollen counts as a bioindicator. The study also examined the impact of Recovery Programmes implemented for the most endangered of these species. Analysis of historical Artemisia pollen-data series from 1992 to 2011 showed that flowering took place between late July and late September, but the trend towards higher summer temperatures detected over the series as a whole appeared to have delayed the start of flowering and brought forward the end of flowering, thus prompting a shortening of the season. A trend was also observed towards a delayed peak pollen period, together with a significant decline in the Annual Pollen Index, which was significantly influenced by rainfall over the months immediately prior to flowering. Recovery Programmes implemented for three species—Artemisia granatensis, A. alba subsp. nevadensis and A. umbelliformis—involved conservation measures including direct seeding and planting of seedlings. From the outset, these programmes led to a recovery of the Pollen Index, especially when using germinated seedlings, which adapted better than seeds to environmental conditions. In conclusion, pollen records proved to be a useful tool for assessing the status of endangered species.

Airborne grass pollen in Granada (Spain)

We have carried out a study on the annual and daily pollen concentrations from Gramineae over four consecutive years in the atmosphere of Granada (Spain). Samples of pollen grains were collected by the volumetric method with the aid of a Burkard sporetrap. Gramineae, according both to their high sensitizing capacity and to data from allergologists, are responsible for many pollinoses diagnosed in this area. In this work, daily pollen levels from April to July are monitored and the variations identified are interpreted in relation to meteorological conditions. Results indicated that the highest airborne concentrations of Gramineae pollen were found in May and June, although the beginning and intensity of pollination have been variable during these 4 years.

Karyology of theScorzonera (Compositae) species from the Iberian Peninsula

A karyological study of 15 taxa ofScorzonera L. from the Iberian Peninsula has been made. The chromosome numbers found inS. hispanica var.pinnatifida, S. baetica, S. reverchonii, S. angustifolia, S. laciniata var.calcitrapifolia and var.subulata (2n = 14) are new. Diploid cytotypes with 2n = 14 and 2n = 12 prevail, andS. hispanica var.crispatula is the only taxon which exhibits autopolyploidy (2n = 14, 28). x = 7 is considered to be the base chromosome number within the genus, with x = 6 being derived from it by translocation. This and detailed karyotype analyses allow to group the Iberian Peninsula species ofScorzonera into three groups.