Cornelius Nuworsoo

Analyzing equity impacts of transit fare changes: Case study of Alameda–Contra Costa Transit, California

Many public transit agencies consider increasing fares when faced with budget shortfalls. This paper analyzes the Alameda-Contra Costa (AC) Transit Districts five alternative fare proposals introduced for public discussion in March 2005. The proposals combined fare hikes, base fare reductions, eliminations of free transfers, and discontinuation of periodic passes. Using the agencys 2002 on-board survey data, the study assessed the impacts of individual fare proposals on different subsets of riders and evaluated if they were equitable; and estimated potential fare revenues, using alternative price elasticities to estimate changes in ridership due to changes in price. The analysis revealed that proposals that increased the cost of transfers or eliminated unlimited-use passes produced dramatically unequal impacts on certain riders. Proposals for flat fares per ride were found to be least equitable, even when the base fare was lowered, because lower income riders, youth, and minorities made more trips and transferred more frequently than their more affluent counterparts. Proposals that maintained existing pass instruments and allowed transfers for small fees were the most favorable. The paper demonstrates the utility of on-board surveys and details an approach that could be widely used for evaluation of equity in public transit and other areas.

Transferability and robustness of real-time freeway crash risk assessment

INTRODUCTION This study examines the data from single loop detectors on northbound (NB) US-101 in San Jose, California to estimate real-time crash risk assessment models. METHOD The classification tree and neural network based crash risk assessment models developed with data from NB US-101 are applied to data from the same freeway, as well as to the data from nearby segments of the SB US-101, NB I-880, and SB I-880 corridors. The performance of crash risk assessment models on these nearby segments is the focus of this research. RESULTS The model applications show that it is in fact possible to use the same model for multiple freeways, as the underlying relationships between traffic data and crash risk remain similar. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY The framework provided here may be helpful to authorities for freeway segments with newly installed traffic surveillance apparatuses, since the real-time crash risk assessment models from nearby freeways with existing infrastructure would be able to provide a reasonable estimate of crash risk. The robustness of the model output is also assessed by location, time of day, and day of week. The analysis shows that on some locations the models may require further learning due to higher than expected false positive (e.g., the I-680/I-280 interchange on US-101 NB) or false negative rates. The approach for post-processing the results from the model provides ideas to refine the model prior to or during the implementation.

Considerations for Integrating Bicycling and Walking Facilities into Urban Infrastructure

Several manuals, handbooks, and web resources provide varied guidance on planning for and designing bicycle and pedestrian facilities, yet there are no specific indications which treatments in these guides work well for users. In this study, best practices are highlighted and program characteristics associated with high levels of nonmotorized travel are identified, with an emphasis on bicyclists and pedestrians in the California communities of Davis, Palo Alto, and San Luis Obispo, cities known for being bicycle and pedestrian friendly. Analyses of a user preference survey of more than 630 residents in the case study communities, interviews with operators, and review of related literature reveal several factors that matter most to stakeholders for creating bicycle-and pedestrian-friendly places. These factors include (a) acceptable bicycling and walking distances to desired activities, (b) direct routes, (c) good route connectivity, and (d) separation of motorized and non-motorized transportation modes. Recommendations are presented as key considerations for integrating bicycling and walking facilities into urban infrastructure and are arranged to correspond to the trip-making cycle, from the decision to engage in an activity through the choice of route to arrival at the destination. Findings indicate that bicyclists and pedestrians alike strongly desire automobile-separated facilities on streets. This finding suggests that these kinds of projects may merit priority over purely recreational paths. Although roadways may generally need to be friendly for bicycling and walking, the emphasis should be on linking activity locations and transit stations that are purposely placed to be within acceptable distances for these activities.

Comparison of Parking Requirements in Zoning and Form-Based Codes

There is growing recognition of the negative effects of rapid suburbanization, also known as urban sprawl, which has dominated the development of urban areas for the past several decades. Both land use and transportation policies have contributed to this form of development, creating communities devoid of nearby services and with a characterless urban form and dependence on automobiles for travel. To address these issues, urban planners, architects, developers, and policy makers are considering form-based codes to guide and regulate urban development that creates complete and compact neighborhoods. Whereas form-based codes address urban form and land use, this study focuses on how parking requirements inhibit or support efforts to reduce urban sprawl and automobile dependency. Form-based codes are growing in popularity, and this paper investigates specifically parking policies in these types of land use regulations. This study finds that parking policies in the Miami 21 form-based code and Duany Plater–Zyberks SmartCode do not offer a greatly different approach to parking than conventional zoning ordinances. The findings show that these codes have not fully embraced solutions from parking critics to address the issues of urban sprawl and automobile dependency. Both codes include some marginal improvements to existing parking policies but do not maximize the potential form-based codes offer to include more progressive solutions to reduce automobile dependency by limiting excesses in parking requirements. This paper recommends that future form-based codes integrate more progressive parking policy solutions to reduce automobile dependency and urban sprawl.

Cost per User as Key Factor in Project Prioritization: Case Study of San Francisco Bay Area, California

Efforts to accommodate increasing and dispersed demand for travel in the face of mounting traffic congestion, escalating construction costs, limited rights of way, and diminished air quality have caused planning agencies to adopt plans that would enhance transit choices. Faced with fiscal limitations, the need to prioritize the every-growing list of improvement projects is paramount. To meet this need in the development of the Bay Area System Plan for Regional Express Bus Service in California, a survey of existing literature on capital investment prioritization in transportation was conducted. This review led to development of a simple prioritization methodology with which to analyze the projects. Unit costs per ride were calculated to facilitate comparisons between the various proposals. The cost estimation procedure involved a systematic sequence of analyses that included the development and quantification of conceptual design elements, application of unit capital as well as operation and maintenance costs, and matching of annualized costs with annual ridership to derive unit costs per affected ride. Results revealed that the greater majority of proposed improvements could be implemented at a relatively low total cost. The estimates also suggest that most proposed improvements will not add very significant additional costs per ride to existing operations. The case study demonstrates the utility of a prioritization method that emphasizes the user benefits of projects and illustrates an approach that could be used by other agencies.

Defining Sampling Districts for Household Travel Surveys: Case Study of the Baltimore, Maryland, Metropolitan Area

The character of land development affects the trip-making behavior of residents. The case is made for the careful demarcation of survey sampling districts from which to collect household travel data for forecasting travel demand. Household travel survey data from the Baltimore, Maryland, metropolitan area indicate that trip generation rates derived from areas with similar intensities of land development are more consistent than those derived according to political jurisdictions. Additional data from the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area support this hypothesis. In light of current and previous findings, trip rates for metropolitan areas clearly should be derived from and applied to areas of homogeneous character in recognition of the effects of density and mixture of land uses on trip making. This assertion is illustrated with empirical data from the Baltimore metropolitan area. Conceptually, area type is more appealing than demarcations by political jurisdictions. Results of visual plots and numerical analyses show distinctive differences between the density classes but not as much between jurisdictions. A comparison of these results indicates that area type is the more superior form of stratification. Defining area type by density can reasonably capture future changes in land-use and activity patterns. The refinement suggested for the demarcation of sampling districts in the conduct of travel surveys is widely applicable to metropolitan areas around the country.

System Plan for California's Bay Area Regional Express Bus Service

Express buses operating on freeways and arterials are an important part of many metropolitan area transit services. A regional express bus system plan for the San Francisco, California, Bay Area is presented; network, station and stop, operations, and user issues are addressed. Previous work had focused on high-occupancy vehicles on freeways; the current work expands the vision of the system to address the door-to-door trip and service on arterials. Gaps in the high-occupancy-vehicle network, priority treatment strategies, access modes and connections, station and stop design, park-and-ride lots, and public and private access services were analyzed, and other user and operator concerns were addressed. The plan was developed through a partnership that included the state transportation agency, the metropolitan planning organization, local transportation sales tax and congestion management agencies, and transit operators, with university researchers providing technical support and facilitation of meetings. On-board surveys and consumer focus groups were conducted along with stakeholder interviews, field studies, design evaluations, and simulation modeling. The plan not only produced valuable information for future improvements but also helped develop a high level of cooperation and consensus among the participating agencies. Both methods used and lessons learned from the Bay Area experience should be useful to other metropolitan areas and transit operators.

Dynamic Dispatch with Advanced Train Control System Data: Application to Muni Metro Light Rail Vehicles Departing Embarcadero Station in San Francisco, California

Transit service reliability, measured by such performance measures as schedule deviation and headway distribution, is a priority for transit agencies. The successful implementation of strategies to keep transit fleets as close to schedule as possible aims to improve customer service and to operate a more efficient system. Common strategies to recover time lost in day-to-day operations include switchbacks, fallbacks, route changes, and reconfigurations. The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, operator of intracity bus and light rail transit in San Francisco, California, uses all of these strategies to remedy unacceptably large headway deviances. Analysis was conducted to determine the potential effects on service reliability of an application of real-time route changes of light rail vehicles at the Embarcadero turnaround. Historical advanced train control system data are applied to a calculator that reassigns the trains on the basis of average headway lengths. The calculator simulates a scenario if such an automatic reassignment system is in place and reports the new schedule deviation and headway distribution. Weekday data for 1 month were applied to the calculator and analyzed to determine whether the reassignment methodology could save significant time in the average headways. The calculator was meant as the first step in the development of a more thorough operational algorithm that would reassign vehicles on the basis of multiple independent variables, to establish better on-time reliability and performance. In preliminary results, the automatic reassignment system showed time savings. Also discussed are current physical and operational constraints to implementation and next steps in model development.

Model To Minimize Nonrevenue Costs in Bus Transit Operations

Feasibility studies were conducted for a proposed bus division of the Mass Transit Administration to serve northeastern Baltimore. The study objective was to determine the comparative savings or additional costs between using existing locations and new locations. The focus of the analysis was nonrevenue operating costs, which are affected by location because of vehicle deadhead travel, associated operator travel, and other operator travel for relief purposes. Based on the premise that “the optimal location of a storage facility is that which minimizes pullout and pull-in distances and times plus relief travel time between the facility and various terminal points,” the model was constructed with detailed data on existing operations and applied to each candidate site. The procedure involved “microscopic” calculation of each individual pullout and pull-in that mark the beginning and end, respectively, of bus transit operations. Compared with existing operations data, the model projected deadhead operations to within 4 percent of actual data and relief travels to within 10 percent. When components were aggregated, the overall margin of error was 1 percent. Various operating scenarios were constructed by distributing combinations of services to existing and proposed facilities with the objective of minimizing nonrevenue operations costs. One existing and one new site were identified as the top choices for further evaluation of construction and operations costs. The model can serve as a tool for both site selection and distribution of units among various locations. Beyond transit operations, the model is extendable to governmental and municipal facilities.