Cornelius P. Cotter

Assessing Party Organizational Strength

Most research on the problem of change in the U.S. political party system relies on trends in electoral behavior to assess the condition of parties. Generally, the conclusions drawn have been pessimistic. But though voters are undeniably an important dimension of party, so too are party organizations. Inferences have been drawn concerning the relationship between electoral behavior and party organizations, but the data that would permit the determination of whether party organizations suffer as a consequence of, or in covariation with, changing patterns of party identification and voting have not been available. This article presents evidence that state party organizations have not suffered during the last two decades. The analysis reveals that party organizations have become stronger since the early 1960s, although it notes a slight decline during the decade of the 1970s. And although interparty differences over the two decades are fairly substantial-with Republican organizations stronger than Democratic organizations-the trend through the early 1970s was one of diminishing differences between the parties. Since then the Republican advantage has increased, largely as a function of a recent Democratic decline in strength. The strength of state party organizations should not be taken to indicate the condition of the party system, but neither can other dimensions of party be understood without recognition that party organizations were weaker in the decade of The American Voter than they are today.

Institutional Development of Parties and the Thesis of Party Decline

The theories by which social scientists attempt to explain complex social trends are necessarily partial and grounded upon limited expertise and particular experiences. In a disconcerting way, such theories tend to be outstripped by the pace of the change that they are designed to explain, and observation and data collecting continue to be guided by the partially outmoded theories. The recognition by scholars that events are occurring in combinations that do not conform to theory can be a wrenching experience. Economists and government decision makers are perplexed by the anomaly of recession and rising unemployment accompanied by rising interest rates and increasing inflation. This conjunction does not conform to the expectations derived from accepted economic theory. Political scientists, pushing the concept of electoral realignment to the limits of its logic and working from the methodological strength of survey and attitudinal research, have formulated and tested a theory of politics that leads them to conclude that American political parties are in steady decline and may verge upon extinction. The electorates declining commitment to party, the apparent lessened interest of activists in party organization, and the salience of personality and issue over party loyalty are indicators of party decline. This conclusion may have merit when considered in terms of the capacity of party organizations to broker presidential nominations or manage presidential campaigns. This article presents evidence supporting a contrary thesis; that is, while national parties are less involved than in the past in controlling presidential nominations,

Trends in Party Organizational Strength, 1960-1980:

The organizational strength, structural complexity, and program activities of American state party apparatuses have steadily been changing—for the most part growing—since 1960. Through interviews and mail questionnaires with current and former state chairpersons, executive directors, and other key leaders, information about these organizational attributes was obtained for various time points; comparisons of state-level party work patterns stressed by incumbents in key positions at earlier and later periods facilitate trend analysis. Regional analysis of trends is also undertaken.