Craig A. Solid

Projecting the Number of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in the United States to the Year 2015

The size of the prevalent ESRD population in the United States increased dramatically during the 1990s, from 196,000 in 1991 to 382,000 in 2000. Incidence also increased considerably during the same period, from 53,000 to 93,000 per year. If previous trends in ESRD incidence and prevalence continue, then current levels of health care resources that are devoted to the care of these patients will eventually be unable to meet the demand. This study discusses a Markov model developed to predict ESRD incidence, prevalence, and mortality to the year 2015 and incorporating expected changes in age/race distributions, diabetes prevalence, ESRD incidence, and probability of death. The model predicted that by 2015 there will be 136,166 incident ESRD patients per year (lower/upper limits 110,989 to 164,550), 712,290 prevalent patients (595,046 to 842,761), and 107,760 ESRD deaths annually (96,068 to 118,220). Incidence and prevalence counts are expected to increase by 44 and 85%, respectively, from 2000 to 2015 and incidence and prevalence rates per million population by 32 and 70%, respectively. The financial and human resources that will be needed to care for these patients in 2015 will be considerably greater than in 2005.

Excerpts From the US Renal Data System 2009 Annual Data Report

This 21st US Renal Data System Annual Data Report covers data through 2007, and again includes a section on chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the United States. Using NHANES and employer group health plan data, we estimate the relationship between kidney disease markers and mortality risk and the likelihood of blood pressure and lipid control by CKD stage; illustrate use of the new ICD-9-CM CKD diagnosis codes; and report on morbidity, mortality, care and costs during the transition to ESRD. New chapters address CKD patient care, the transition to ESRD, and acute kidney injury. In 2007, 111,000 patients started end-stage renal disease (ESRD) therapy, and the prevalent population reached 527,283 (including 368,544 dialysis patients); 17,513 transplants were performed, and 158,739 patients had a functioning graft at year’s end. Program expenditures reached

Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke in the General Medicare Population A 10-Year Perspective (1992 to 2002)

35.3 billion, with

United States Renal Data System 2008 Annual Data Report Abstract

23.9 billion from Medicare (accounting for 5.8% of total Medicare expenditures). The incident rate fell 2.1%, to 354 per million. Fistula use in prevalent patients declined 2.6 percent; catheter use continues to be a concern. The percentage of patients with hemoglobin levels above 13 g/dl has fallen since 2006, but levels in the incident population frequently exceed 12. First-year mortality and morbidity among hemodialysis patients—particularly the increasing rate of hospitalizations due to infections—continue to be major concerns, and pediatric patient survival has not improved. The public health impact of kidney disease is larger than previously appreciated, and early detection, education, intervention, and risk factor control need to address the heavy burden of cardiovascular disease and adverse events in this vulnerable population.

Infection-Related Hospitalization Rates in Pediatric versus Adult Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in the United States

Background and Purpose— Clinical trials have illustrated warfarin’s protective effect on stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The current study investigated temporal trends in AF prevalence, warfarin use, and its relation to stroke risk in Medicare patients with AF from 1992 to 2002. Methods— The Medicare 5% sample for 1992 to 2002 was used to create 1-year cohorts of patients with Medicare as primary payer throughout the year. International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes were used to identify AF, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, and comorbid conditions. A previously validated surrogate measure, prothrombin/international normalized ratio claims, was used to identify warfarin use. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine time to stroke with warfarin use as a time-dependent variable. Results— Among Medicare patients aged ≥65 years, AF prevalence increased from 3.2% in 1992 to 6.0% in 2002 with higher prevalence in older subsets of the study population. Among patients with AF, warfarin use increased significantly (P≤0.001) for each year examined, from 24.5% in 1992 to 56.3% in 2002. Stroke rates per 1000 patient-years declined from 46.7 in 1992 to 19.5 in 2002 for ischemic stroke but remained fairly steady for hemorrhagic stroke (range, 1.6 to 2.9). Time-to-event modeling confirmed a protective association of warfarin against ischemic stroke among Medicare patients with AF. Conclusions— This analysis represents an observational validation of stroke prevention in AF trials. The significant increase in warfarin use among patients with AF illustrates diffusion of trial evidence into clinical practice.

Hypertonic saline and its effect on intracranial pressure, cerebral perfusion pressure, and brain tissue oxygen.

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Long-Term Survival and Repeat Coronary Revascularization in Dialysis Patients After Surgical and Percutaneous Coronary Revascularization With Drug-Eluting and Bare Metal Stents in the United States

Infection is a common cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with ESRD. Infection-related hospitalization (IH) incidence among US Medicare incident pediatric and adult dialysis and transplant patients within 3 yr of presentation was compared from 1996 to 2001: Hemodialysis (HD) patients (pediatric n = 1469; adult n = 305,323); peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients (pediatric n=982; adult n=27,119), and kidney transplant (KTx) patients (pediatric n=1108; adult n=31,663). IH were identified from principal diagnosis codes; IH cumulative incidence and rates were calculated from claims data. Cumulative incidence of IH at 36 mo for incident pediatric patients with ESRD during 1996 to 2001 was 39.9% in HD, 51.2% in PD, and 47.4% in KTx patients (HD or PD versus KTx, P<0.0001). Cumulative incidence for adults was 52.6% in HD, 51.8% in PD, and 39.8% in KTx patients (HD or PD versus KTx, P<0.0001). IH rates per 1000 patient-months were highest for pediatric KTx patients (adjusted rate ratio 1.53 versus HD and 1.90 versus PD, P<0.001 for each) and adult HD patients (adjusted rate ratio 1.20 versus KTx and 1.11 versus PD, P < 0.001 for each). Within the first 36 mo of incidence, IH rates are highest for incident pediatric KTx patients compared with HD and PD patients, in contrast to findings for adult patients with ESRD. Pediatric KTx patients require infection surveillance after transplantation.

Incidence of Stroke Before and After Dialysis Initiation in Older Patients

OBJECTIVEHypertonic saline is emerging as a potentially effective single osmotic agent for control of acute elevations in intracranial pressure (ICP) caused by severe traumatic brain injury. This study examines its effect on ICP, cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP), and brain tissue oxygen tension (PbtO2). METHODSTwenty-five consecutive patients with severe traumatic brain injury who were treated with 23.4% NaCl for elevated ICP were evaluated. Bolt catheter probes were placed in the noninjured hemisphere, and hourly ICP, mean arterial pressure, CPP, and PbtO2 values were recorded. Thirty milliliters of 23.4% NaCl was infused over 15 minutes for intracranial hypertension, defined as ICP greater than 20 mm Hg. Twenty-one male patients and 4 female patients aged 16 to 64 years were included. The mean presenting Glasgow Coma Scale score was 5.7. RESULTSMean pretreatment values included an ICP level of 25.9 mm Hg and a PbtO2 value of 32 mm Hg. The posttreatment ICP level was decreased by a mean of 8.3 mm Hg (P < 0.0001), and there was an improvement in PbtO2 of 3.1 mm Hg (P < 0.01). ICP of more than 31 mm Hg decreased by 14.2 mm Hg. Pretreatment CPP values of less than 70 mm Hg increased by a mean of 6 mm Hg (P < 0.0001). No complications occurred from this treatment, with the exception of electrolyte and chemistry abnormalities. At 6 months postinjury, the mortality rate was 28%, with 48% of patients achieving a favorable outcome by the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Scale. CONCLUSIONHypertonic saline as a single osmotic agent decreased ICP while improving CPP and PbtO2 in patients with severe traumatic brain injury. Patients with higher baseline ICP and lower CPP levels responded to hypertonic saline more significantly.

Hypertension in Pediatric Long-term Hemodialysis Patients in the United States

Background— Few published data describe long-term survival of dialysis patients undergoing surgical versus percutaneous coronary revascularization in the era of drug-eluting stents (DES). Methods and Results— Using United States Renal Data System data, we identified 23 033 dialysis patients who underwent coronary revascularization (6178 coronary artery bypass grafting, 5011 bare metal stents, 11 844 DES) from 2004 to 2009. Revascularization procedures decreased from 4347 in 2004 to 3344 in 2009. DES use decreased by 41% and bare metal stent use increased by 85% from 2006 to 2007. Long-term survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and independent predictors of mortality were examined in a comorbidity-adjusted Cox model. In-hospital mortality for coronary artery bypass grafting patients was 8.2%; all-cause survival at 1, 2, and 5 years was 70%, 57%, and 28%, respectively. In-hospital mortality for DES patients was 2.7%; 1-, 2-, and 5-year survival was 71%, 53%, and 24%, respectively. Independent predictors of mortality were similar in both cohorts: age >65 years, white race, dialysis duration, peritoneal dialysis, and congestive heart failure, but not diabetes mellitus. Survival was significantly higher for coronary artery bypass grafting patients who received internal mammary grafts (hazard ratio, 0.83; P<0.0001). The probability of repeat revascularization accounting for the competing risk of death was 18% with bare metal stents, 19% with DES, and 6% with coronary artery bypass grafting at 1 year. Conclusions— Among dialysis patients undergoing coronary revascularization, in-hospital mortality was higher after coronary artery bypass grafting, but long-term survival was superior with internal mammary grafts. In-hospital mortality was lower for DES patients, but the probability of repeat revascularization was higher and comparable to that in patients receiving a bare metal stent. Revascularization decisions for dialysis patients should be individualized.

Early mortality in patients starting dialysis appears to go unregistered

The incidence of stroke is substantially higher among hemodialysis patients than among patients with earlier stages of CKD, but to what extent the initiation of dialysis accelerates the risk for stroke is not well understood. In this cohort study, we analyzed data from incident hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients in 2009 who were at least 67 years old and had Medicare as primary payer. We noted whether each of the 20,979 hemodialysis patients initiated dialysis as an outpatient (47%) or inpatient (53%). One year before initiation, the baseline stroke rate was 0.15%-0.20% of patients per month (ppm) for both outpatient and inpatient initiators. Among outpatient initiators, stroke rates began rising approximately 90 days before initiation, reached 0.5% ppm during the 30 days before initiation, and peaked at 0.7% ppm (8.4% per patient-year) during the 30 days after initiation. The pattern was similar among inpatient initiators, but the stroke rate peaked at 1.5% ppm (18% per patient-year). For both hemodialysis groups, stroke rates rapidly declined by 1-2 months after initiation, fluctuated, and stabilized at approximately twice the baseline rate by 1 year. Among the 620 peritoneal dialysis patients, stroke rates were slightly lower and variable, but approximately doubled after initiation. In conclusion, these data suggest that the process of initiating dialysis may cause strokes. Further studies should evaluate methods to mitigate the risk for stroke during this high-risk period.