Craig R. Nitschke

Too much, too soon? A review of the effects of increasing wildfire frequency on tree mortality and regeneration in temperate eucalypt forests

In temperate Australia, wildfires are predicted to be more frequent and severe under climate change. This could lead to marked changes in tree mortality and regeneration in the region’s predominant eucalypt forests, which have been burned repeatedly by extensive wildfires in the period 2003–14. Recent studies have applied alternative stable state models to select ‘fire sensitive’ forest types, but comparable models have not been rigorously examined in relation to the more extensive ‘fire tolerant’ forests in the region. We review the effects of increasing wildfire frequency on tree mortality and regeneration in temperate forests of Victoria, south-eastern Australia, based on the functional traits of the dominant eucalypts: those that are typically killed by wildfire to regenerate from seed (‘obligate seeders’) and those that mostly survive to resprout (‘resprouters’). In Victoria, over 4.3 million ha of eucalypt forest has been burned by wildfire in the last decade (2003–14), roughly equivalent to the cumulative area burned in the previous 50 years (1952–2002; 4.4 million ha). This increased wildfire activity has occurred regardless of several advancements in fire management, and has resulted in over 350 000 ha of eucalypt forest being burned twice or more by wildfire at short (≤11 year) intervals. Historical and recent evidence indicates that recurrent wildfires threaten the persistence of the ‘fire sensitive’ obligate seeder eucalypt forests, which can facilitate a shift to non-forest states if successive fires occur within the trees’ primary juvenile period (1–20 years). Our review also highlights potential for structural and state changes in the ‘fire tolerant’ resprouter forests, particularly if recurrent severe wildfires kill seedlings and increase tree mortality. We present conceptual models of state changes in temperate eucalypt forests with increasing wildfire frequency, and highlight knowledge gaps relating to the development and persistence of alternative states driven by changes in fire regimes.

Global drivers and tradeoffs of three urban vegetation ecosystem services.

Our world is increasingly urbanizing which is highlighting that sustainable cities are essential for maintaining human well-being. This research is one of the first attempts to globally synthesize the effects of urbanization on ecosystem services and how these relate to governance, social development and climate. Three urban vegetation ecosystem services (carbon storage, recreation potential and habitat potential) were quantified for a selection of a hundred cities. Estimates of ecosystem services were obtained from the analysis of satellite imagery and the use of well-known carbon and structural habitat models. We found relationships between ecosystem services, social development, climate and governance, however these varied according to the service studied. Recreation potential was positively related to democracy and negatively related to population. Carbon storage was weakly related to temperature and democracy, while habitat potential was negatively related to democracy. We found that cities under 1 million inhabitants tended to have higher levels of recreation potential than larger cities and that democratic countries have higher recreation potential, especially if located in a continental climate. Carbon storage was higher in full democracies, especially in a continental climate, while habitat potential tended to be higher in authoritarian and hybrid regimes. Similar to other regional or city studies we found that the combination of environment conditions, socioeconomics, demographics and politics determines the provision of ecosystem services. Results from this study showed the existence of environmental injustice in the developing world.

An ecoclimatic framework for evaluating the resilience of vegetation to water deficit

The surge in global efforts to understand the causes and consequences of drought on forest ecosystems has tended to focus on specific impacts such as mortality. We propose an ecoclimatic framework that takes a broader view of the ecological relevance of water deficits, linking elements of exposure and resilience to cumulative impacts on a range of ecosystem processes. This ecoclimatic framework is underpinned by two hypotheses: (i) exposure to water deficit can be represented probabilistically and used to estimate exposure thresholds across different vegetation types or ecosystems; and (ii) the cumulative impact of a series of water deficit events is defined by attributes governing the resistance and recovery of the affected processes. We present case studies comprising Pinus edulis and Eucalyptus globulus, tree species with contrasting ecological strategies, which demonstrate how links between exposure and resilience can be examined within our proposed framework. These examples reveal how climatic thresholds can be defined along a continuum of vegetation functional responses to water deficit regimes. The strength of this framework lies in identifying climatic thresholds on vegetation function in the absence of more complete mechanistic understanding, thereby guiding the formulation, application and benchmarking of more detailed modelling.

Unstable climate−growth relations for white spruce in southwest Yukon, Canada

We used dendroclimatology to quantify inter-annual to multi-decadal climatic variation effects on white spruce radial growth in southwest Yukon, Canada. Local climate is dry and cold, such that tree growth was primarily moisture- rather than temperature-limited, although the mechanisms varied temporally. During the 20th century, significant increases in precipitation countered warming temperatures, so that heat−moisture indices have not changed significantly. Directional climatic change, superimposed on variation due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), resulted in unstable climate−growth relations. Prior to 1977, ring widths were positively correlated with previous growing season precipitation and warm temperatures had a negative impact, exacerbating moisture limitations in dry years especially during the cool, dry negative PDO phase (1946−1976). After 1977, correlations with previous growing season precipitation became negative and correlations with previous fall and winter precipitation and current year July and August temperatures became positive, although not statistically significant. These changes suggest precipitation and temperature increases over recent decades benefitted white spruce growth. Climate projections for this region include further temperature and precipitation increases, which may promote white spruce growth depending on the seasonality and interactions between temperature and precipitation. This study demonstrated the complexity of potential responses of white spruce to climate variation and change.

Assessing the drivers shaping global patterns of urban vegetation landscape structure

Vegetation is one of the main resources involve in ecosystem functioning and providing ecosystem services in urban areas. Little is known on the landscape structure patterns of vegetation existing in urban areas at the global scale and the drivers of these patterns. We studied the landscape structure of one hundred cities around the globe, and their relation to demography (population), socioeconomic factors (GDP, Gini Index), climate factors (temperature and rain) and topographic characteristics (altitude, variation in altitude). The data revealed that the best descriptors of landscape structure were amount, fragmentation and spatial distribution of vegetation. Populated cities tend to have less, more fragmented, less connected vegetation with a centre of the city with low vegetation cover. Results also provided insights on the influence of socioeconomics at a global scale, as landscape structure was more fragmented in areas that are economically unequal and coming from emergent economies. This study shows the effects of the social system and climate on urban landscape patterns that gives useful insights for the distribution in the provision of ecosystem services in urban areas and therefore the maintenance of human well-being. This information can support local and global policy and planning which is committing our cities to provide accessible and inclusive green space for all urban inhabitants.

Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change

Germination is considered one of the important phenological stages that are influenced by environmental factors, with timing and abundance determining plant establishment and recruitment. This study investigates the influence of temperature, soil moisture and light on the germination phenology of six Eucalyptus species from two co-occurring groups of three species representing warm-dry and cool-moist sclerophyll forests. Data from germination experiments were used to calibrate the germination module of the mechanistic model TACA-GEM, to evaluate germination phenology under a range of climate change scenarios. With the exception of E. polyanthemos, the optimal niche for all species was characterised by cool-moist stratification, low light, cool temperatures and high soil moisture. Model results indicated that of the warm-dry species, Eucalyptus microcarpa exhibited greater germination and establishment under projected changes of warmer drier conditions than its co-occurring species Eucalyptus polyanthemos and Eucalyptus tricarpa which suggests that E. microcarpa could maintain its current distribution under a warmer and drier climate in southeastern Australia. Among the cool-moist species, Eucalyptus radiata was the only species that established under projected climate change of the 2080s but at such a low probability that its persistence compared to Eucalyptus obliqua and Eucalyptus sieberi cannot be posited. For all cool-moist species, germination did not benefit from the phenological shifts they displayed. This study successfully demonstrated environmental effects on germination phenology and how a shift in climate can influence the timing and success of recruitment.

Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

Abstract. Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper–Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.

The influence of climate change, site type, and disturbance on stand dynamics in northwest British Columbia, Canada

Stand and disturbance dynamics are key processes that need to be assessed along with climate-species interactions if we are to better understand the impacts of climate change on species. In this study we investigated the biotic interactions (competition) between species, the influence of disturbance type, and changes in resource availability (moisture and light) on the response of six tree species to climate change in the northwest region of central British Columbia, Canada. Two ecological models were parameterized, linked together and coupled to climate change scenarios to explore the interactions between: (1) the response of species in the regeneration phase and (2) the role of disturbance, resource availability and competition on determining stand composition and productivity. Climate change was found to reduce soil moisture availability which resulted in a decline in regeneration potential for all species on dry sites and negative to neutral responses on sites with higher water availability. Following fire, stand dynamics and composition were modeled to undergo significant changes under the 2080s climate compared to current climate conditions on dry and mesic sites. Changes in stand dynamics under climate change were marginal following bark beetle disturbances. While significant changes to stand dynamics were found on dry sites, the presented results suggest that the sites with the highest moisture availability maintain the same general stand dynamics and composition following disturbances under climate change. This study highlights the need to consider species response to climate change in interaction with existing stand conditions, disturbance type, competition, resource availability, not just temperature and precipitation.

Monitoring Sustainable Forest Management in the Pacific Rim Region

Summary The Pacific Rim is rich in forest resources. It contains the worlds largest contiguous forest areas, high levels of biodiversity, millions of forest-dependent people, and the worlds leading wood-product exporting and importing nations. However, because of a range of issues, the Pacific Rim region is also experiencing high rates of deforestation and forest degradation. An important step in addressing these issues and moving toward sustainable forest management is improved monitoring and information reporting at the local, national, and international levels. A number of criteria and indicators initiatives have been developed throughout the countries of the Pacific Rim. These have ranged from international processes to local initiatives such as forest certification. Although there is considerable variability in the issues facing forest policy makers in the countries of the Pacific Rim, it is often expected that criteria and indicators will reflect a level of comparability. This paper presents the results of a comparative analysis designed to identify similarities and differences in sustainable forest management criteria and indicators initiatives in the Pacific Rim region. When considered in the context of globalization, the research findings support international efforts to encourage comparability in sustainable forest management-related monitoring and information reporting.

Environmental heterogeneity promotes floristic turnover in temperate forests of south-eastern Australia more than dispersal limitation and disturbance

ContextAustralia’s temperate forest landscapes encompass broad topographic and edaphic ranges, and are regularly disturbed by fire. Nonetheless, relative contributions of environmental heterogeneity, disturbance regimes, and dispersal limitations to plant species turnover remain poorly understood.ObjectivesTo evaluate the relative influences of deterministic (environmental, disturbance), and stochastic (spatial) processes on plant species turnover [beta-diversity (β diversity)] in natural forest landscapes, and how such influences vary among plant functional types and vegetation strata.MethodsWe assessed the environment and species composition of 81 forest stands, representing a range of structures and fire histories across contiguous landscapes in south-eastern Australia, and examined the potential to explain β diversity using variance partitioning and distance-decay analyses.ResultsExplanatory variables accounted for 34–55% of β diversity of multiple plant functional types, with environmental heterogeneity explaining the greatest proportion (10–25%). Stand structural variables (e.g., leaf area index, height coefficient of variation) accounted for 8–14% of β diversity in understorey life forms and 5% in canopy species, far greater than a single direct descriptor of disturbance history such as time-since-fire which explained just 2% of tree and shrub β diversity. β Diversity increased with increasing geographic distance for all functional types. Dispersal limitation accounted for 5–11% of β diversity, and distance-decay rates varied among plant functional types.ConclusionsLandscape-scale conservation of forest biodiversity will require representation of a broad environmental range as well as metrics that fully capture site disturbance histories, including stand structural complexity as a potential proxy for fire regimes.