Cristian Spitoni

Incidence, Risk Factors, and Attributable Mortality of Secondary Infections in the Intensive Care Unit After Admission for Sepsis

IMPORTANCE Sepsis is considered to induce immune suppression, leading to increased susceptibility to secondary infections with associated late mortality. OBJECTIVE To determine the clinical and host genomic characteristics, incidence, and attributable mortality of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired infections in patients admitted to the ICU with or without sepsis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Prospective observational study comprising consecutive admissions of more than 48 hours in 2 ICUs in the Netherlands from January 2011 to July 2013 stratified according to admission diagnosis (sepsis or noninfectious). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was ICU-acquired infection (onset >48 hours). Attributable mortality risk (fraction of mortality that can be prevented by elimination of the risk factor, acquired infection) was determined using time-to-event models accounting for competing risk. In a subset of sepsis admissions (n = 461), blood gene expression (whole-genome transcriptome in leukocytes) was analyzed at baseline and at onset of ICU-acquired infectious (n = 19) and noninfectious (n = 9) events. RESULTS The primary cohort included 1719 sepsis admissions (1504 patients; median age, 62 years; interquartile range [IQR], 51-71 years]; 924 men [61.4%]). A comparative cohort included 1921 admissions (1825 patients, median age, 62 years; IQR, 49-71 years; 1128 men [61.8%] in whom infection was not present in the first 48 hours. Intensive care unit-acquired infections occurred in 13.5% of sepsis ICU admissions (n = 232) and 15.1% of nonsepsis ICU admissions (n = 291). Patients with sepsis who developed an ICU-acquired infection had higher disease severity scores on admission than patients with sepsis who did not develop an ICU-acquired infection (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV [APACHE IV] median score, 90 [IQR, 72-107] vs 79 [IQR, 62-98]; P < .001) and throughout their ICU stay but did not have differences in baseline gene expression. The population attributable mortality fraction of ICU-acquired infections in patients with sepsis was 10.9% (95% CI, 0.9%-20.6%) by day 60; the estimated difference between mortality in all patients with a sepsis admission diagnosis and mortality in those without ICU-acquired infection was 2.0% (95% CI, 0.2%-3.8%; P = .03) by day 60. Among nonsepsis ICU admissions, ICU-acquired infections had a population attributable mortality fraction of 21.1% (95% CI, 0.6%-41.7%) by day 60. Compared with baseline, blood gene expression at the onset of ICU-acquired infections showed reduced expression of genes involved in gluconeogenesis and glycolysis. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Intensive care unit-acquired infections occurred more commonly in patients with sepsis with higher disease severity, but such infections contributed only modestly to overall mortality. The genomic response of patients with sepsis was consistent with immune suppression at the onset of secondary infection.

The attributable mortality of delirium in critically ill patients: prospective cohort study

Objective To determine the attributable mortality caused by delirium in critically ill patients. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting 32 mixed bed intensive care unit in the Netherlands, January 2011 to July 2013. Participants 1112 consecutive adults admitted to an intensive care unit for a minimum of 24 hours. Exposures Trained observers evaluated delirium daily using a validated protocol. Logistic regression and competing risks survival analyses were used to adjust for baseline variables and a marginal structural model analysis to adjust for confounding by evolution of disease severity before the onset of delirium. Main outcome measure Mortality during admission to an intensive care unit. Results Among 1112 evaluated patients, 558 (50.2%) developed at least one episode of delirium, with a median duration of 3 days (interquartile range 2-7 days). Crude mortality was 94/558 (17%) in patients with delirium compared with 40/554 (7%) in patients without delirium (P<0.001). Delirium was significantly associated with mortality in the multivariable logistic regression analysis (odds ratio 1.77, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 2.72) and survival analysis (subdistribution hazard ratio 2.08, 95% confidence interval 1.40 to 3.09). However, the association disappeared after adjustment for time varying confounders in the marginal structural model (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 1.89). Using this approach, only 7.2% (95% confidence interval −7.5% to 19.5%) of deaths in the intensive care unit were attributable to delirium, with an absolute mortality excess in patients with delirium of 0.9% (95% confidence interval −0.9% to 2.3%) by day 30. In post hoc analyses, however, delirium that persisted for two days or more remained associated with a 2.0% (95% confidence interval 1.2% to 2.8%) absolute mortality increase. Furthermore, competing risk analysis showed that delirium of any duration was associated with a significantly reduced rate of discharge from the intensive care unit (cause specific hazard ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 0.76). Conclusions Overall, delirium prolongs admission in the intensive care unit but does not cause death in critically ill patients. Future studies should focus on episodes of persistent delirium and its long term sequelae rather than on acute mortality. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01905033.

Cytomegalovirus seroprevalence as a risk factor for poor outcome in acute respiratory distress syndrome

Objective:Cytomegalovirus reactivation may complicate critical illness in latent carriers of the virus, even in patients who were previously immunocompetent. Patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome are considered to be prone for reactivation. Prophylactic antiviral therapy in immunocompetent cytomegalovirus seropositive patients admitted to the ICU with acute respiratory distress syndrome has therefore been proposed. We assessed cytomegalovirus seroprevalence as a risk factor for morbidity and mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Design:Prospective observational cohort study. We used the number of days alive and free of mechanical ventilation on day 28 as a composite outcome measure and used multivariable ordinal logistic regression analyses to adjust for potential confounders. Setting:ICUs of two tertiary care hospitals in The Netherlands. Patients:We included all newly admitted patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome who received mechanical ventilation for at least 4 days. Patients with known immunocompromise and those receiving antiviral treatment prior to ICU admission were excluded. Interventions:None. Measurements and Main Results:Over a 2-year period, 306 patients were included, 209 (68%) of whom were cytomegalovirus seropositive. Cytomegalovirus reactivation occurred in 53 of these cases (26%). One hundred patients (33%) died or continued to be mechanically ventilated by day 28. After adjustment for confounding, cytomegalovirus seroprevalence was not associated with the primary outcome (crude odds ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.70–1.70; adjusted odds ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.64–1.59). Seroprevalence was also not associated with poor outcome in any of the prespecified subgroup analyses. However, a significant association was found in a post hoc subgroup of patients who had developed acute respiratory distress syndrome in a setting of septic shock (adjusted odds ratio, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.32–6.23). The time course of pulmonary markers in survivors was comparable between the two serogroups. Conclusions:Cytomegalovirus seroprevalence is not associated with prolonged mechanical ventilation or increased mortality in critically ill patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome, with possible exception of patients presenting with septic shock. Therefore, a prevention strategy targeting an unselected cohort of seropositive patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome is unlikely to show any meaningful benefit.

Estimation and Asymptotic Theory for Transition Probabilities in Markov Renewal Multi-State Models

Abstract In this paper we discuss estimation of transition probabilities for semi–Markov multi–state models. Non–parametric and semi–parametric estimators of the transition probabilities for a large class of models (forward going models) are proposed. Large sample theory is derived using the functional delta method and the use of resampling is proposed to derive confidence bands for the transition probabilities. The last part of the paper concerns the presentation of the main ideas of the R implementation of the proposed estimators, and data from a renal replacement study are used to illustrate the behavior of the estimators proposed.

Epidemiology of Multiple Herpes Viremia in Previously Immunocompetent Patients With Septic Shock

Background Systemic reactivations of herpesviruses may occur in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, even in those without prior immune deficiency. However, the clinical relevance of these events is uncertain. Methods In this study we selected patients admitted with septic shock and treated for more than 4 days from a prospectively enrolled cohort of consecutive adults in the mixed ICUs of 2 tertiary care hospitals in the Netherlands. We excluded patients who had received antiviral treatment in the week before ICU admission and those with known immunodeficiency. We studied viremia episodes with cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6), herpes simplex virus types 1 (HSV-1) and 2 (HSV-2), and varicella zoster virus (VZV) by weekly polymerase chain reaction in plasma. Results Among 329 patients, we observed 399 viremia episodes in 223 (68%) patients. Viremia with CMV, EBV, HHV-6, HSV-1, HSV-2, and VZV was detected in 60 (18%), 157 (48%), 80 (24%), 87 (26%), 13 (4%), and 2 (0.6%) patients, respectively; 112 (34%) patients had multiple concurrent viremia events. Crude mortality in the ICU was 36% in this latter group compared to 19% in remaining patients (P < .01). After adjustment for potential confounders, time-dependent bias, and competing risks, only concurrent CMV and EBV reactivations remained independently associated with increased mortality (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 3.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.41-7.13). Conclusions Herpesvirus reactivations were documented in 68% of septic shock patients without prior immunodeficiency and frequently occurred simultaneously. Concurrent reactivations could be independently associated with mortality. Clinical Trials Registration NCT01905033.

The Effect of Strict Segregation on Pseudomonas aeruginosa in Cystic Fibrosis Patients

Introduction Segregation of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) was implemented to prevent chronic infection with epidemic Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains with presumed detrimental clinical effects, but its effectiveness has not been carefully evaluated. Methods The effect of strict segregation on the incidence of P. aeruginosa infection in CF patients was investigated through longitudinal protocolized follow-up of respiratory tract infection before and after segregation. In two nested cross-sectional studies in 2007 and 2011 the P. aeruginosa population structure was investigated and clinical parameters were determined in patients with and without infection with the Dutch epidemic P. aeruginosa clone (ST406). Results Of 784 included patients 315 and 382 were at risk for acquiring chronic P. aeruginosa infection before and after segregation. Acquisition rates were, respectively, 0.14 and 0.05 per 1,000 days at risk (HR: 0.66, 95% CI [0.2548–1.541]; p = 0.28). An exploratory subgroup analysis indicated lower acquisition after segregation in children < 15 years of age (HR: 0.43, 95% CI[0.21–0.95]; p = 0.04). P. aeruginosa population structure did not change after segregation and ST406 was not associated with lung function decline, death or lung transplantation. Conclusions Strict segregation was not associated with a statistically significant lower acquisition of chronic P. aeruginosa infection and ST406 was not associated with adverse clinical outcome. After segregation there were no new acquisitions of ST406. In an unplanned exploratory analysis chronic acquisition of P. aeruginosa was lower after implementation of segregation in patients under 15 years of age.

Epidemiology, management and risk-adjusted mortality of ICU-acquired enterococcal bacteremia

BACKGROUND Enterococcal bacteremia has been associated with high case fatality, but it remains unknown to what extent death is caused by these infections. We therefore quantified attributable mortality of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacteremia caused by enterococci. METHODS From 2011 to 2013 we studied consecutive patients who stayed >48 hours in 2 tertiary ICUs in the Netherlands, using competing risk survival regression and marginal structural modeling to estimate ICU mortality caused by enterococcal bacteremia. RESULTS Among 3080 admissions, 266 events of ICU-acquired bacteremia occurred in 218 (7.1%) patients, of which 76 were caused by enterococci (incidence rate, 3.0 per 1000 patient-days at risk; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-3.7). A catheter-related bloodstream infection (CRBSI) was suspected in 44 (58%) of these, prompting removal of 68% of indwelling catheters and initiation of antibiotic treatment for a median duration of 3 (interquartile range 1-7) days. Enterococcal bacteremia was independently associated with an increased case fatality rate (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 2.68; 95% CI, 1.44-4.98). However, for patients with CRBSI, case fatality was similar for infections caused by enterococci and coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS; adjusted SHR, 0.91; 95% CI, .50-1.67). Population-attributable fraction of mortality was 4.9% (95% CI, 2.9%-6.9%) by day 90, reflecting a population-attributable risk of 0.8% (95% CI, .4%-1.1%). CONCLUSIONS ICU-acquired enterococcal bacteremia is associated with increased case fatality; however, the mortality attributable to these infections is low from a population perspective. The virulence of enterococci and CoNS in a setting of CRBSI seems comparable.

Competitive nucleation in reversible probabilistic cellular automata

The problem of competitive nucleation in the framework of probabilistic cellular automata is studied from the dynamical point of view. The dependence of the metastability scenario on the self-interaction is discussed. An intermediate metastable phase, made of two flip-flopping chessboard configurations, shows up depending on the ratio between the magnetic field and the self-interaction. A behavior similar to the one of the stochastic Blume-Capel model with Glauber dynamics is found.

Nebulised amphotericin B to eradicate Candida colonisation from the respiratory tract in critically ill patients receiving selective digestive decontamination: a cohort study

IntroductionColonisation of the lower respiratory tract with Candida species occurs in 25% of mechanically ventilated critically ill patients, and is associated with increased morbidity. Nebulised amphotericin B has been used to eradicate Candida as part of selective decontamination of the digestive tract (SDD) protocols, but its effectiveness is unknown. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of nebulised amphotericin B in eradicating Candida respiratory tract colonisation in patients receiving SDD.MethodsWe included consecutive mechanically ventilated patients during a four-year period. Microbiological screening was performed upon admission and twice weekly thereafter according to a standardised protocol. A colonisation episode was defined as the presence of Candida species in two consecutive sputum samples taken at least one day apart. To correct for time-varying bias and possible confounding, we used a multistate approach and performed time-varying Cox regression with adjustment for age, disease severity, Candida load at baseline and concurrent corticosteroid use.ResultsAmong 1,819 patients, colonisation with Candida occurred 401 times in 363 patients; 333 of these events were included for analysis. Decolonisation occurred in 51 of 59 episodes (86%) and in 170 of 274 episodes (62%) in patients receiving and not receiving nebulised amphotericin B, respectively. Nebulised amphotericin B was associated with an increased rate of Candida eradication (crude HR 2.0; 95% CI 1.4 to 2.7, adjusted HR 2.2; 95% CI 1.6 to 3.0). Median times to decolonisation were six and nine days, respectively. The incidence rate of ventilator-associated pneumonia, length of stay and mortality did not differ between both groups.ConclusionsNebulised amphotericin B reduces the duration of Candida colonisation in the lower respiratory tracts of mechanically ventilated critically ill patients receiving SDD, but data remain lacking that this is associated with a meaningful improvement in clinical outcomes. Until more evidence becomes available, nebulised amphotericin B should not be used routinely as part of the SDD protocol.

Effect of self-interaction on the phase diagram of a Gibbs-like measure derived by a reversible Probabilistic Cellular Automata

Abstract Cellular Automata are discrete-time dynamical systems on a spatially extended discrete space which provide paradigmatic examples of nonlinear phenomena. Their stochastic generalizations, i.e., Probabilistic Cellular Automata (PCA), are discrete time Markov chains on lattice with finite single-cell states whose distinguishing feature is the parallel character of the updating rule. We study the ground states of the Hamiltonian and the low-temperature phase diagram of the related Gibbs measure naturally associated with a class of reversible PCA, called the cross PCA. In such a model the updating rule of a cell depends indeed only on the status of the five cells forming a cross centered at the original cell itself. In particular, it depends on the value of the center spin (self-interaction). The goal of the paper is that of investigating the role played by the self-interaction parameter in connection with the ground states of the Hamiltonian and the low-temperature phase diagram of the Gibbs measure associated with this particular PCA.