Cristian Valeriu Patriche

A Comparative Analysis of Binary Logistic Regression and Analytical Hierarchy Process for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in the Dobrov River Basin, Romania

A correct assessment of the landslide susceptibility component is extremely useful for the diminution of associated potential risks to local economic development, particularly in regard to land use planning and soil conservation. The purpose of the present study was to compare the usefulness of two methods, i.e., binary logistic regression (BLR) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP), for the assessment of landslide susceptibility over a 130-km2 area in the Moldavian Plateau (eastern Romania) region, where landslides affect large areas and render them unsuitable for agriculture. A large scale inventory mapping of all types of landslides (covering 13.7% of the total area) was performed using orthophoto images, topographical maps, and field surveys. A geographic information system database was created, comprising the nine potential factors considered as most relevant for the landsliding process. Five factors (altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, surface lithology, and land use) were further selected for analysis through the application of a tolerance test and the stepwise filtering procedure of BLR. For each predictor, a corresponding raster layer was built and a dense grid of equally spaced points was generated, with an approximately equal number of points inside and outside the landslide area, in order to extract the values of the predictors from raster layers. Approximately half of the total number of points was used for model computation, while the other half was used for validation. Analytical hierarchy process was employed to derive factor weights, with several pair-wise comparison matrices being tested for this purpose. The class weights, on a scale of 0 to 1, were taken as normalized landslide densities. A comparison of results achieved through these two approaches showed that BLR was better suited for mapping landslide susceptibility, with 82.8% of the landslide area falling into the high and very high susceptibility classes. The susceptibility class separation using standard deviation was superior to either the equal interval or the natural break method. Results from the study area suggest that the statistical model achieved by BLR could be successfully extrapolated to the entire area of the Moldavian Plateau.

Water deficit and corn productivity during the post-socialist period. Case study: Southern Oltenia drylands, Romania

ABSTRACT Water deficit (WD) typically associated with drylands and poor land use currently represent a major limiting factor for agricultural systems in numerous regions of the world. The present study aims to analyze the relationship between water deficit and corn (Zea mays L) crop yields in southern Oltenia drylands. The study includes the post-1990 period, which is representative for Romania in terms of ample climate changes and poor land planning decisions affecting water resources. This analysis targeted the vegetation period of corn (April–September), the reference period covering a 14-year interval, from 1990 to 2003. The entire analysis was based on spatialized WD data (mm), obtained by interpolation methods used on climate data provided by regional weather stations, and agricultural yield data (tons/hectare/year), recorded in 113 administrative territorial units. Both data sets were analyzed in terms of interannual statistical relationships, established in compact climate zones delineated by Thiessen-Voronoi polygons. The results showed a clear statistical relationship between the two variables, with an average dependence of corn yields on water of approximately 65%. The range was from 55 to 78%, depending on region. The results showed an average yield decrease of 16.5 kg/ha/year for each mm rise of the WD, or loss of 1.65 t/ha/year when considering a deficit rise of 100 mm. Therefore, in the context of increasing future WD, urgent action is needed in order to reintroduce irrigation systems.

Viticultural Zoning: A Comparative Study Regarding the Accuracy of Different Approaches in Vineyards Climate Suitability Assessment

Abstract The paper presents the results of a study regarding the mesoclimate suitability assessment of three Romania’s wine-growing centres (Urlaţi-Dealu Mare vineyard, Huşi-Huşi vineyard, Bucium-Iaşi vineyard), by the Huglin’s heliothermal index and by a GIS based multicriteria method. The results are compared between the two types of analysis and with the macroclimate suitability map of Romania’s wine regions, expressed by Huglin’s heliothermal index spatial distribution. The research show that the values of Huglin’s heliothermal index in Romania’s wine regions varies between 2341.48 on the Danube Terraces from the southern limit of the country to lower than 1500 on the intramountainous wine region Transylvania. The prevailing climate class over the Romania’s wine regions is IH-1 that define temperate climate. According to the assessment on Romania’s macroclimate scale by Huglin’s heliothermal index, the three wine-growing centers are characterized by temperate climate (IH-1), that indicate the existence of climate conditions for grapes maturation to Cabernet Sauvignon variety. The assessment on mesoclimate scale by the GIS based multicriteria method reveals a wider variability of local climate than that resulted from macroclimate and mesoclimate analysis by Huglin’s heliothermal index, as follows: the climate of Urlaţi wine-growing center is suitable for quality red wines production; in Huşi wine-growing centre only 16.95% from the area has climate suitable to produce red table wines; the climate of Bucium wine-growing centre is not suitable for red wine production. Comparison with the Romania’s vineyards wine production specialization confirms that the results of multicriteria GIS based evaluation reveal accurate the local climate suitability and demonstrate the need of the fine-scale assessment of vineyard climate in the viticultural zoning. Rezumat Zonarea viticulturii: studiu comparativ privind acurateţea diferitelor abordări în evaluarea favorabilităţii climatului podgoriilor. În lucrare sunt prezentate rezultatele evaluării climatului centrelor viticole Urlaţi-podgoria Dealu Mare, Huşi-podgoria Huşi, Buciumpodgoria Iaşi, prin intermediul indicelui heliotermic Huglin şi a unei metodologii multicriteriale. Rezultatele celor două tipuri de evaluare sunt comparate atât între ele, cât şi cu harta favorabilităţii macroclimatului regiunilor viticole din România, exprimată prin valori ale indicelui heliotermic Huglin. Cercetarea arată că, pe teritoriul României, valorile indicelui heliotermic Huglin variază între 2341.48 în Regiunea viticolă a Teraselor Dunării şi mai puţin de 1500 în Regiunea viticolă a Podişului Transilvaniei. Conform evaluării la scara macroclimatului, exprimată prin valorile indicelui heliotermic Huglin, cele trei centre viticole analizate dispun de condiţiile climatice necesare producţiei de vinuri roşii din soiul Cabernet Sauvignon. Evaluarea la scara mezoclimatului (scara podgoriei) prin metodologia multicriterială relevă o variaţie mult mai largă a favorabilităţii climatului local decât cea rezultată din evaluarea macroclimatului pe baza indicelui heliotermic Huglin, după cum urmează: climatul centrului viticol Urlaţi este favorabil pentru producţia de vinuri roşii de calitate; în centrul viticol Huşi numai 16.95% din suprafaţă dispune de condiţii climatice favorabile producţiei de vinuri roşii; climatul centrului viticol Bucium nu este favorabil pentru producţia de vinuri roşii. Comparaţia cu harta direcţiilor de producţie a podgoriilor din România arată că rezultatele evaluării multicriteriale sunt corecte şi demonstrează necesitatea evaluării climatului podgoriilor la scară fină în cadrul lucrărilor de zonare a viticulturii.

MAPPING VITICULTURAL POTENTIAL IN TEMPERATE CLIMATE AREAS. CASE STUDY: BUCIUM VINEYARD (ROMANIA)

Mapping Viticultural Potential in Temperate Climate Areas. Case Study: Bucium Vineyard (Romania) The paper presents the spatial distribution of ecological suitability for grape growing in Bucium vineyard (Romania), viticultural area with ecological characteristics representative for northern vineyards. The study is based on a complex methodology implying use of remote sensing, Geographical Information Systhems (GIS), climatic data, topographic and pedologic maps. Research reveal the low ecological potential of Bucium area, specialized, traditionally, in white table wines, sparkling wines and white quality wines. Data analysis shows that 30% of Bucium vineyard (281 ha of 928 ha) is inappropriate, in terms of climatic suitability, for vinifera varieties culture; 34% of the area (316 ha) has limited ecological potential, enough to produce white table wines and sparkling wines; 36% of the area (331 ha) is suitable for quality white wines. In the vineyard area was not registered suitable conditions for quality red wines production. Huglins heliothermal index values shows that the vineyard has climatic characteristics that allow culture of wine varieties with early and medium ripening. In terms of ecological suitability, it appears that the most favorable conditions offer Cetăţuia wine land, the eastern slope of the Doi Peri hill, eastern slope of Vişani hill, south-western slope of Bucium hill and southern slope of Pietrăria wine land. Cartografierea potenţialului viticol în arealele cu climat temperat. Studiu de caz: centrul viticol Bucium (România) Lucrarea prezintă distribuţia spaţială a favorabilităţii ecologice pentru cultura soiurilor de vin în centrul viticol Bucium-podgoria Iaşi, areal cu caracteristici ecologice reprezentative pentru podgoriile septentrionale. Cercetarea se bazează pe o metodologie complexă, în cadrul căreia se utilizează imagini din satelit, Sistemele Informaţionale Geografice (GIS), date climatice, hărţi topografice şi hărţi pedologice. Rezultatele cercetării relevă potenţialul ecologic limitat al arealului viticol, specializat, în mod tradiţional, în producerea vinurilor albe de masă, vinurilor spumante, vinurilor aromate şi vinurilor albe de calitate. Din analiza datelor rezultă că 30% din suprafaţa analizată (281 ha din 928 ha) este improprie, din punct de vedere climatic, pentru cultura soiurilor vinifera; 34% din suprafaţă (316 ha) are potenţial ecologic limitat, suficient doar pentru producerea vinurilor albe de masă şi vinurilor spumante; 36% din suprafaţă (331 ha) are potenţial pentru producerea vinurilor albe de calitate. În arealul viticol nu se înregistrează condiţii favorabile obţinerii vinurilor roşii de calitate. Valorile indicelui heliotermic Huglin, a cărui distribuţie spaţială este prezentată în lucrare alături de amplasarea zonelor afectate de îngheţuri şi brume, relevă faptul că, în areal, există condiţii favorabile pentru cultura soiurilor cu maturare timpurie şi mijlocie. Din punct de vedere al favorabilităţii ecologice pentru cultura soiurilor de vin, rezultă că cele mai valoroase microareale sunt: plaiul Cetăţuia, versantul estic al dealului Doi Peri, versantul estic al dealului Vişani, versantul sud-vestic al dealului Bucium şi versantul sudic al plaiului Pietrăria.

Soil erosion modelling

Surface soil erosion modelling has benefited and continues to benefit from the progress in information technology area and statistical and mathematical processing of spatial data. In Romania, quantitative studies concerning soil erosion have a tradition of over 70 years, beginning with the establishment of experimental runoff plots. An important step in the history of soil erosion research in Romania is the adaptation of the universal soil loss equation (USLE) to the specific environmental and anthropogenic conditions form our country (ROMSEM). This has led to the achievement of a first quantitative zonation of soil erosion at national scale. During the past decade, it is to be noticed a multiplication of local and regional scales applications, attempting mainly the 3-dimensional implementation of ROMSEM model in GIS environment, and also the application of other models such as USLE, RUSLE, USPED and PESERA. A common problematic issue is the lack of measured erosion data for hydrographic basins or other geographical units, which are necessary for the validation of models. The model adapted for Romania (ROMSEM) differs substantially from the original one (USLE), mainly by the different manners of quantifying rainfall erosivity and soil erodibility. This hampers the comparison between the roles played by erosion factors in ROMSEM model, on the one hand, and USLE or RUSLE models, on the other hand. An application carried out for an average size hydrographic basin from eastern Romania has shown that ROMSEM model produces realistic results, comparable with erosion values measured in similar environmental settings.

Preliminary Approach on the Estimation of Ponto -Sarmatic Habitats Preservation in NE Romania via Herpetological Indicators

The present scientific approach proposes a preliminary study on habitat suitability and factorsinfluence using the herpetological indicator Vipera ursinii moldavica and is intended to depict well adapted preservation measures for the Ponto -Sarmatic ecosystems in the context of increased human pressure. The primary goal is to establish an impact hierarchy for the controlling factors. The study incorporates various natural and human related factors via correspondence analysis in order to mark out for the m ost influential ones. The goal is to enhance understanding of variablescontribution to the process and find appropriate intervention measures as far as the Natura 2000 Management Plans are concerned.

GIS-AIDED ANALYSIS OF VINEYARDS DAMAGED BY WINTER FROSTS. CASE STUDY: COTNARI VINEYARD (ROMANIA)

Abstract Thermal regime of Cotnari vineyard, Iaşi County, Romania, was surveyed between 2011-2012 using 10 Tinytag temperature loggers TK-4014, spread in 10 different lands of the vineyard. Research is developed in the framework of the international project TERVICLIM (France), by means of was created a global network of analyses points of vineyard climate, spread in 13 countries from both hemispheres of the globe, at different latitudes. The data recorded by temperature loggers in Cotnari vineyard shows that in 2011-2012 winter, the minimum temperatures dropped to -28.6ºC, with differences of up to 7.1ºC between the coldest and the mildest lands of the vineyard. Spatial distribution of the most harmful frost (12 February 2012) shows that more than 80% from the vineyard area was exposed to temperatures lower than -24ºC, 17% to harmful temperatures between -21..- 24ºC and 3% to temperatures between -18..- 21ºC, less damaging to vines. As consequences, the damages in the vine plantations varied from less significant negative consequences for vines in the mildest location, up to massive losses of winter buds, damages of annual branches and frozen vines in the coldest land of the vineyard. Analytical data of winter buds losses spatial distribution shows that at - 28.6ºC (absolute minimum temperature for the vineyard), 0.46% (7.29 ha) of vine plantations were exposed to vines losses, 3.81% of plantations to losses of annual branches, 62.49% from vine plantations to winter buds losses exceeding 40%, difficult to compensate by pruning, 13.5% to losses of winter buds exceeding 60%, requiring reestablishing the vegetative potential of vines. The only vine plantations protected by harmful frosts were those located at over 175 m altitude, in the highest lands of the vineyards. Rezumat Analiza asistată de Sistemul Informatic Geografic (SIG) a podgoriilor afectate de îngheţuri. Studiu de caz:podgoria Cotnari, România. Regimul termic al podgoriei Cotnari a fost monitorizat în perioada 2011-2012 cu ajutorul a 10 senzori termici Tinytag TK- 4014, amplasaţi în 10 locaţii diferite din podgorie. Cercetarea se desfăşoară în cadrul proiectului internaţional TERVICLIM (Univ. Rennes 2, Franţa), prin care s-a creat o reţea de monitorizare a climatului arealelor viticole cu puncte de observaţie în 20 de podgorii din 13 ţări, situate la diferite latitudini, în ambele emisfere ale globului. Datele înregistrate de senzorii termici Tinytag în podgoria Cotnari arată că, în iarna 2011-2012, temperaturile minime negative au coborât până la -28.6ºC (12 februarie 2012), cu diferenţe de până la 7.1ºC între cel mai rece şi cel mai puţin rece plai al podgoriei. Din analiza distribuţiei spaţiale a gerului din data de 12 februarie 2012 rezultă că mai mult de 80% din plantaţiile viticole ale podgoriei au fost expuse la temperaturi mai mici de -24ºC (dăunătoare pentru lemnul multianual), 17% la temperaturi de -21…-24ºC (dăunătoare pentru ochii de iarnă şi lemnul anual) şi 3% la temperaturi de -18..-21ºC (mai puţin dăunătoare pentru viţa de vie). Ca urmare, daunele produse plantaţiilor viticole au variat de la nesemnificative pe plaiurile cu climat blând, până la pierderi masive de ochi de iarnă, distrugerea prin îngheţ a coardelor anuale şi chiar distrugerea prin îngheţ a butucilor de viţă de vie. Datele analitice privind distribuţia spaţială a daunelor provocate viţei de vie arată că, la temperatura de -28.6ºC (minima absolută din iarna 2011-2012), 0.46% (7.29 ha) din suprafaţa podgoriei a fost expusă distrugerii butucilor de viţă de vie, 3.81% distrugerii coardelor anuale, 62.49% pierderilor de muguri mai mari de 40%, dificil de compensat prin tăieri, 13.5% pierderilor de muguri care depăşesc 60% şi care impun refacerea butucilor de viţă de vie. Singurele plantaţii ferite de îngheţurile nocive din iarna 2011-2012 au fost cele situate la mai mult de 175 m altitudine.