Cristina Ramo

Defining reliable disability outcomes in multiple sclerosis.

Prevention of irreversible disability is currently the most important goal of disease modifying therapy for multiple sclerosis. The disability outcomes used in most clinical trials rely on progression of Expanded Disability Status Scale score confirmed over 3 or 6 months. However, sensitivity and stability of this metric has not been extensively evaluated. Using the global MSBase cohort study, we evaluated 48 criteria of disability progression, testing three definitions of baseline disability, two definitions of progression magnitude, two definitions of long-term irreversibility and four definitions of event confirmation period. The study outcomes comprised the rates of detected progression events per 10 years and the proportions of the recorded events persistent at later time points. To evaluate the ratio of progression frequency and stability for each criterion, we calculated the proportion of events persistent over the five subsequent years once progression was achieved. Finally, we evaluated the clinical and demographic determinants characterising progression events and, for those that regressed back to baseline, determinants of their subsequent regression. The study population consisted of 16 636 patients with the minimum of three recorded disability scores, totalling 112 584 patient-years. The progression rates varied between 0.41 and 1.14 events per 10 years, with the length of required confirmation interval as the most important determinant of the observed variance. The concordance among all tested progression criteria was only 17.3%. Regression of disability occurred in 11-34% of the progression events over the five subsequent years. The most important determinant of progression stability was the length of the confirmation period. For the most accurate set of the progression criteria, the proportions of 3-, 6-, 12- or 24-month confirmed events persistent over 5 years reached 70%, 74%, 80% and 89%, respectively. Regression post progression was more common in younger patients, relapsing-remitting disease course, and after a smaller change in disability, and was inflated by higher visit frequency. These results suggest that the disability outcomes based on 3-6-month confirmed disability progression overestimate the accumulation of permanent disability by up to 30%. This could lead to spurious results in short-term clinical trials, and the issue may be magnified further in cohorts consisting predominantly of younger patients and patients with relapsing-remitting disease. Extension of the required confirmation period increases the persistence of progression events.

Treatment effectiveness of alemtuzumab compared with natalizumab, fingolimod, and interferon beta in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a cohort study

BACKGROUND Alemtuzumab, an anti-CD52 antibody, is proven to be more efficacious than interferon beta-1a in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, but its efficacy relative to more potent immunotherapies is unknown. We compared the effectiveness of alemtuzumab with natalizumab, fingolimod, and interferon beta in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treated for up to 5 years. METHODS In this international cohort study, we used data from propensity-matched patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis from the MSBase and six other cohorts. Longitudinal clinical data were obtained from 71 MSBase centres in 21 countries and from six non-MSBase centres in the UK and Germany between Nov 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016. Key inclusion criteria were a diagnosis of definite relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, exposure to one of the study therapies (alemtuzumab, interferon beta, fingolimod, or natalizumab), age 65 years or younger, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score 6·5 or lower, and no more than 10 years since the first multiple sclerosis symptom. The primary endpoint was annualised relapse rate. The secondary endpoints were cumulative hazards of relapses, disability accumulation, and disability improvement events. We compared relapse rates with negative binomial models, and estimated cumulative hazards with conditional proportional hazards models. FINDINGS Patients were treated between Aug 1, 1994, and June 30, 2016. The cohorts consisted of 189 patients given alemtuzumab, 2155 patients given interferon beta, 828 patients given fingolimod, and 1160 patients given natalizumab. Alemtuzumab was associated with a lower annualised relapse rate than interferon beta (0·19 [95% CI 0·14-0·23] vs 0·53 [0·46-0·61], p<0·0001) and fingolimod (0·15 [0·10-0·20] vs 0·34 [0·26-0·41], p<0·0001), and was associated with a similar annualised relapse rate as natalizumab (0·20 [0·14-0·26] vs 0·19 [0·15-0·23], p=0·78). For the disability outcomes, alemtuzumab was associated with similar probabilities of disability accumulation as interferon beta (hazard ratio [HR] 0·66 [95% CI 0·36-1·22], p=0·37), fingolimod (1·27 [0·60-2·70], p=0·67), and natalizumab (0·81 [0·47-1·39], p=0·60). Alemtuzumab was associated with similar probabilities of disability improvement as interferon beta (0·98 [0·65-1·49], p=0·93) and fingolimod (0·50 [0·25-1·01], p=0·18), and a lower probability of disability improvement than natalizumab (0·35 [0·20-0·59], p=0·0006). INTERPRETATION Alemtuzumab and natalizumab seem to have similar effects on annualised relapse rates in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Alemtuzumab seems superior to fingolimod and interferon beta in mitigating relapse activity. Natalizumab seems superior to alemtuzumab in enabling recovery from disability. Both natalizumab and alemtuzumab seem highly effective and viable immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis. Treatment decisions between alemtuzumab and natalizumab should be primarily governed by their safety profiles. FUNDING National Health and Medical Research Council, and the University of Melbourne.

Differential effects of monophosphoryl lipid A and cytokine cocktail as maturation stimuli of immunogenic and tolerogenic dendritic cells for immunotherapy

Immunotherapy using monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MDDC) is increasingly being considered as alternative therapeutic approach in cancer, infectious diseases and also in autoimmunity when patients are not responsive to conventional treatments. In general, generation of MDDC from monocytes is induced in the presence of GM-CSF and IL-4, and a maturation stimulus is added to the culture to obtain mature DCs suitable for therapy. For DC maturation, different combinations of pro-inflammatory mediators and Toll-like receptor ligands have been tested, obtaining DCs that differ in their properties and the type of immune response they promote. Therefore, it is necessary to find an optimal cytokine environment for DC maturation to obtain a cellular product suitable for DC-based immunotherapeutic protocols. In this study, we have evaluated in vitro the effects of different maturation stimuli on the viability, phenotype, cytokine profile, stability and functionality of immunogenic and tolerogenic (1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D(3)-treated) MDDC. Maturation was induced using the clinical grade TLR4-agonist: monophosphoryl lipid A (LA), compared to the traditional cytokine cocktail (CC; clinical grade TNF-α, IL-1β, PGE2) and a combination of both. Our results showed the combination of CC+LA rendered a potent immunogenic DC population that induced the production of IFN-γ and IL-17 in allogeneic co-cultures, suggesting a Th17 polarization. Moreover, these immunogenic DCs showed a high surface expression of CD83, CD86, HLA-DR and secretion of IL-12p70. When aiming to induce tolerance, using LA to generate mature TolDC did not represent a clear advantage, and the stability and the suppressive capability exhibited by CC-matured TolDC may represent the best option. Altogether, these findings demonstrate the relevance of an appropriate maturation stimulus to rationally modulate the therapeutic potential of DCs in immunotherapy.

Higher latitude is significantly associated with an earlier age of disease onset in multiple sclerosis

Background Age at onset (AAO) in multiple sclerosis (MS) is an important marker of disease severity and may have prognostic significance. Understanding what factors can influence AAO may shed light on the aetiology of this complex disease, and have applications in the diagnostic process. Methods The study cohort of 22 162 eligible patients from 21 countries was extracted from the MSBase registry. Only patients with MS aged ≥16 years were included. To reduce heterogeneity, only centres of largely European descent were included for analysis. AAO was defined as the year of the first symptom suggestive of inflammatory central nervous system demyelination. Predictors of AAO were evaluated by linear regression. Results Compared with those living in lower latitudes (19.0–39.9°), onset of symptoms was 1.9 years earlier for those at higher latitudes (50.0–56.0°) (p=3.83×10−23). A reciprocal relationship was seen for ambient ultraviolet radiation (UVR), with a significantly increasing AAO for patients with MS per each quartile increment of ambient UVR (p=1.56×10−17). We found that the AAO of female patients was ∼5 months earlier than male patients (p=0.002). AAO of progressive-onset patients with MS were ∼9 years later than relapsing-onset patients (p=1.40×10−265). Conclusions An earlier AAO in higher latitude regions was found in this worldwide European-descent cohort and correlated inversely with variation in latitudinal UVR. These results suggest that environmental factors which act at the population level may significantly influence disease severity characteristics in genetically susceptible populations.

Highly active immunomodulatory therapy ameliorates accumulation of disability in moderately advanced and advanced multiple sclerosis

Objective To evaluate variability and predictability of disability trajectories in moderately advanced and advanced multiple sclerosis (MS), and their modifiability with immunomodulatory therapy. Methods The epochs between Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) steps 3–6, 4–6 and 6–6.5 were analysed. Patients with relapse-onset MS and having reached 6-month confirmed baseline EDSS step (3/4/6) were identified in MSBase, a global observational MS cohort study. We used multivariable survival models to examine the impact of disease-modifying therapy, clinical and demographic factors on progression to the outcome EDSS step (6/6.5). Sensitivity analyses with varying outcome definitions and inclusion criteria were conducted. Results For the EDSS 3–6, 4–6 and 6–6.5 epochs, 1560, 1504 and 1231 patients were identified, respectively. Disability trajectories showed large coefficients of variance prebaseline (0.92–1.11) and postbaseline (2.15–2.50), with no significant correlations. The probability of reaching the outcome step was not associated with prebaseline variables, but was increased by higher relapse rates during each epoch (HRs 1.58–3.07; p<0.001). A greater proportion of each epoch treated with higher efficacy therapies was associated with lower risk of reaching the outcome disability step (HRs 0.72–0.91 per 25%; p≤0.02). 3 sensitivity analyses confirmed these results. Conclusions Disease progression during moderately advanced and advanced MS is highly variable and amnesic to prior disease activity. Lower relapse rates and greater time on higher efficacy immunomodulatory therapy after reaching EDSS steps 3, 4 and 6 are associated with a decreased risk of accumulating further disability. Highly effective immunomodulatory therapy ameliorates accumulation of disability in moderately advanced and advanced relapse-onset MS.

Long-term disability trajectories in primary progressive MS patients: A latent class growth analysis.

Background: Several natural history studies on primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) patients detected a consistent heterogeneity in the rate of disability accumulation. Objectives: To identify subgroups of PPMS patients with similar longitudinal trajectories of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) over time. Methods: All PPMS patients collected within the MSBase registry, who had their first EDSS assessment within 5 years from onset, were included in the analysis. Longitudinal EDSS scores were modeled by a latent class mixed model (LCMM), using a nonlinear function of time from onset. LCMM is an advanced statistical approach that models heterogeneity between patients by classifying them into unobserved groups showing similar characteristics. Results: A total of 853 PPMS (51.7% females) from 24 countries with a mean age at onset of 42.4 years (standard deviation (SD): 10.8 years), a median baseline EDSS of 4 (interquartile range (IQR): 2.5–5.5), and 2.4 years of disease duration (SD: 1.5 years) were included. LCMM detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild (n = 143; 16.8%), moderate (n = 378; 44.3%), or severe (n = 332; 38.9%) disability trajectory. The probability of reaching EDSS 6 at 10 years was 0%, 46.4%, and 81.9% respectively. Conclusion: Applying an LCMM modeling approach to long-term EDSS data, it is possible to identify groups of PPMS patients with different prognosis.

Effects of diazoxide in multiple sclerosis A randomized, double-blind phase 2 clinical trial

Objective: The aim of this study was to test the safety of diazoxide and to search for signs of efficacy in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Methods: In this multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial (treatment allocation was concealed), 102 patients with RRMS were randomized to receive a daily oral dose of diazoxide (0.3 and 4 mg/d) or placebo for 24 weeks (NCT01428726). The primary endpoint was the cumulative number of new T1 gadolinium-enhancing lesions per patient, recorded every 4 weeks from week 4 to week 24. Secondary endpoints included brain MRI variables such as the number of new/enlarging T2 lesions and the percentage brain volume change (PBVC); clinical variables such as the percentage of relapse-free patients, relapse rate, and change in the Expanded Disability Status Scale score; and safety and tolerability. Results: Diazoxide was well-tolerated and it produced no serious adverse events other than 1 case of Hashimoto disease. At the 2 doses tested, diazoxide did not improve the primary endpoint or the MRI and clinical variables related to the presence of new lesions or relapses. Patients treated with diazoxide showed reduced PBVC compared with the placebo group, although such changes could be confounded by the higher disease activity of the treated group and the vascular effects of diazoxide. Conclusion: At the doses tested, oral diazoxide did not decrease the appearance of new lesions evident by MRI. The effects in slowing the progression of brain atrophy require further validation. Classification of evidence: This study provides Class I evidence that for patients with RRMS, diazoxide (0.3 and 4 mg/d) does not significantly change the number of new MRI T1 gadolinium-enhancing lesions.