Crocker H. Liu

The Integration of the Real Estate Market and the Stock Market: Some Preliminary Evidence

The current study investigates whether the commercial real estate market is segmented from the stock market using the framework of Jorion and Schwartz (1986). Evidence is found to support the hypothesis that segmentation does exist as the result of indirect barriers such as the cost, amount, and quality of information for real estate rather than legal constraints. However, this evidence is contingent on whether real estate returns are computed with appraised values or imputed sale prices and on which market proxy is chosen.

International Evidence on Real Estate Securities as an Inflation Hedge

The current study investigates whether real estate securities continue to act as a perverse inflation hedge in foreign countries given security design differences. Both a stationary and a nonstationary risk free rate are alternatively used in conjunction with the methodology of Fama and Schwert (1977) and also the methodology of Geske and Roll (1983) to investigate this question. Real estate securities provide a worse hedge against inflation relative to common stocks in some countries and are comparable to stocks in other countries. Also, evidence supports the reverse causality model of Geske-Roll.

The Predictability of International Real Estate Markets, Exchange Rate Risks and Diversification Consequences

We investigate whether international real estate related securities offer any incremental diversification benefits over foreign stocks using mean-variance analysis together with a multifactor latent variable model. The study finds that diversification benefits are primarily driven by unanticipated returns which in turn are partly driven by changes in exchange rate risk. Although exchange rate risk accounts for a larger portion of the return fluctuation in real estate related securities relative to common stocks, international real estate securities are found to provide some incremental diversification benefits over common stocks even if currency risks are hedged.

The Role of Real Estate in the Portfolio Allocation Process

This study explores the role of direct real estate investment in a portfolio context incorporating the real estate imperfections of indivisible assets and no short sales. Mean-variance efficient portfolios are calculated using Treasury-bills, bond and equity indices together with cash flows and appraised values from a set of twenty-two properties having an aggregate appraised value of

The Value Added from Investment Managers: an Examination of Funds of REITs

336 million. Real estate diversification benefits are shown to be the greatest with smaller properties and are most advantageous at higher target levels of return. The study suggests that a 9% allocation to real estate is optimal, rather than the 20% figure suggested in other studies.

An Analysis of REIT Security Issuance Decisions

This paper empirically analyzes REIT mutual funds. We show that, contrary to mostmutual fund studies, the average and median alphas (net of expenses) are positive. We also findthat time-varying positive alphas are much more likely to occur when the real asset market is performing poorly, suggesting that managers add more value in down markets than in up markets. We examine the cross-sectional determinants of both standard alphas and the average of time-varing alphas and find that both increase with assets and turnover. Cross-sectinally, we find that actively managed funds have higher alphas than passively managed funds.

Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets

This article tests the ability of traditional capital structure theories to explain the issuance decisions of real estate investment trusts (REITs). For issuances made between 1997 and 2006, we find strong support for the market timing theory of capital structure. Controlling for past returns and growth, a REIT is more likely to issue equity when its price-to–net asset value ratio is high. This suggests that REITs issue equity in public markets when the cost of equity capital is lower in the public market than in the private market. Consistent with traditional market timing, REITs are more likely to issue equity after experiencing large price increases. We also find some support for REITs following the trade-off theory of capital structure. REITs are less likely to issue debt when proxies for expected bankruptcy costs are high.

The Role of Corporate Governance in Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

This paper applies a new statistical technology for identifying regime shifts to analyze recent data on real estate and equity markets in eight developing Far Eastern countries in the 1992-1998 time period. We find that regime shifts in volatility occur in the summer of 1997; however, most of the regime shifts in returns occur in the spring of 1998. While the clustering of regime breaks does not seem to follow any obvious pattern, the countrys exposure to trade and firm leverage are important. An analysis of Granger causality suggests that, in most cases, equity returns cause real estate returns but the converse is not true. We also find two-way causality in volatility, suggesting that a common factor drives volatility in these markets. Finally, we provide evidence that the regime shifts generally imply higher relative risk for real estate securities after the estimated breaks. Copyright 2002 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

The Predictability of Real Estate Returns and Market Timing

This study analyzes the impact of corporate governance structures at the initial public offering (IPO) date. We test hypotheses that firms with more shareholder‐oriented governance structures receive higher valuations at the IPO stage and have better long‐term performance. Our sample is a set of 107 IPOs of real estate investment trusts (REITs) between 1991 and 1998. Using a single industry and REITs in particular reduces potentially confounding effects due to differences in risk, transparency, and growth potential. We believe this—combined with our use of IPOs—mitigates the endogeneity problem present in studies of the impact of governance on seasoned firms’ valuation. Our analysis indicates that firms with stronger governance structures have higher IPO valuations and better long‐term operating performance than their peers.

An Analysis of Real-Estate Risk Using the Present Value Model

Recent evidence suggests that all asset returns are predictable to some extent with excess returns on real estate relatively easier to forecast. This raises the issue of whether we can successfully exploit this level of predictability using various market timing strategies to realize superior performance over a buy-and-hold strategy. We find that the level of predicability associated with real estate leads to moderate success in market timing, although this is not necessarily the case for the other asset classes examined in general. Besides this, real estate stocks typically have higher trading profits and higher mean risk-adjusted excess returns when compared to small stocks as well as large stocks and bonds even though most real estate stocks are small stocks.