Cynthia Lum

The Diffusion of Computerized Crime Mapping in Policing: Linking Research and Practice

In this paper we examine the diffusion of computerized crime mapping drawing upon a more general approach to the ‘diffusion of innovations’ pioneered by Everett Rogers in 1995. We use data from the Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics (LEMAS) survey and the Crime Mapping Research Center at the National Institute of Justice to define the basic pattern of adoption of computerized crime mapping in larger American police agencies. As we illustrate in our paper, these surveys suggest that larger police agencies have adopted computerized crime mapping at a rapid pace. We supplement these data with a pilot study of adoption of computerized crime mapping that shows a continuing rapid adoption curve through 2001, and that illustrates that crime mapping innovation follows a period of crisis of confidence in standard American police practices. We also find that the widespread adoption of computerized crime mapping follows research evidence regarding the effectiveness of hot spots policing approaches, and is linked strongly to those approaches in police agencies with computerized crime mapping capabilities. Following the diffusion of innovation literature more generally, we show that there is a significant relationship between the likelihood of early adoption of computerized crime mapping and knowledge of research and interaction with the research community.

DETERRENCE, CRIMINAL OPPORTUNITIES, AND POLICE

In this article, we join three distinct literatures on crime control—the deterrence literature, the policing literature as it relates to crime control, and the environmental and opportunity perspectives literature. Based on empirical findings and theory from these literatures, we pose a mathematical model of the distribution of criminal opportunities and offender decision making on which of those opportunities to victimize. Criminal opportunities are characterized in terms of the risk of apprehension that attends their victimization. In developing this model, our primary focus is on how police might affect the distribution of criminal opportunities that are attractive to would-be offenders. The theoretical model we pose, however, is generalizable to explain how changes in other relevant target characteristics, such as potential gain, could affect target attractiveness. We demonstrate that the model has important implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of police deployment strategies such as hot spots policing, random patrol, and problem-oriented policing. The theoretical structure also makes clear why the clearance rate is a fundamentally flawed metric of police performance. Future research directions suggested by the theoretical model are discussed.

Receptivity to Research in Policing

Evidence-based policing—using research and scientific processes to inform police decisions—is a complex approach to policing that involves various challenges. One primary difficulty is how research can be translated into digestible and familiar forms for practitioners. A central part of successful translation is the receptivity of decisionmakers to research as well as how research is presented and packaged to increase receptivity. In this article we first discuss the complexity of evidence-based policing, highlighting the much-lamented gap between research and practice. We review research from other disciplines and also in policing about what contributes to research being better received and used by practitioners. We then describe our own receptivity survey, offering preliminary findings about the receptivity of officers to research, researchers, and tactics influenced by research. Finally, we conclude with examples of the types of efforts practitioners and researchers can engage in that might improve receptivity to research. Specifically, we discuss the Evidence-Based Policing Matrix as a research translation tool, as well as multiple demonstrations conducted by the authors that focus on institutionalizing the use of research into daily police activities.

When can we Conclude that Treatments or Programs “Don’t Work”?

In this article, the authors examine common practices of reporting statistically nonsignificant findings in criminal justice evaluation studies. They find that criminal justice evaluators often make formal errors in the reporting of statistically nonsignificant results. Instead of simply concluding that the results were not statistically significant, or that there is not enough evidence to support an effect of treatment, they often mistakenly accept the null hypothesis and state that the intervention had no impact or did not work. The authors propose that researchers define a second null hypothesis that sets a minimal threshold for program effectiveness. In an illustration of this approach, they find that more than half of the studies that had no statistically significant finding for a traditional, no difference null hypothesis evidenced a statistically significant result in the case of a minimal worthwhile treatment effect null hypothesis.

The Geography of Drug Activity and Violence: Analyzing Spatial Relationships of Non-Homogenous Crime Event Types

The pervasiveness of interest regarding the theme of a relationship between street-level drug activity and violence has been reflected throughout criminal justice research, policy, and practice as well as in public opinion. Most research has focused on the connection between the two at the individual level. This study extends previous research by examining the place-based relationship between drugs and violence. To do so, this project employs three spatial statistical approaches—measures of spatial intensity/density, measures of spatial dependence for drugs and violence separately, and a modified spatial dependence approach for non-homogenous populations to explore the relationship between drug activity and violence. The findings indicate that while drugs and violence often exhibit overlapping spatial patterns, important variations exist in the spatial relationship between the two.

The Receptivity of Officers to Empirical Research and Evidence-Based Policing: An Examination of Survey Data From Three Agencies

Police officer receptivity to empirical research and evidence-based policing is important to consider because officers are responsible for implementing approaches validated by research on the street. Officer survey data from Sacramento, California; Richmond, Virginia; and Roanoke County, Virginia suggest prospects and challenges for advancing evidence-based policing. Generally, officers use few tools to learn about research, but their views are in line with the evidence for some strategies. Officers typically value experience more than research to guide practice, but they also tend to recognize the importance of working with researchers to address crime. Officers show some willingness to conduct evaluations but are most interested in using less rigorous methodologies. The findings across agencies are fairly similar, although some differences do emerge.

Evidence-Based Counterterrorism Policy

As we approach the tenth anniversary of the terror attacks on September 11th, one fact is clear among the many unknowns about terrorism: there has been an exponential increase in spending on counterterrorism measures. For the United States, this increase in spending is not just reflected in federal homeland security measures or military efforts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, but also among private individuals, corporations, and public entities at the municipal, county, regional, and state levels. Most recently, the killing of Osama Bin Laden by the United States has led to a renewed increase in resource allocation at home by local law enforcement agencies (van Natta, 2011). In the scientific fields, there has also been more funding for a variety of academic and technological research and development related to terrorism and counterterrorism.

Police Activities to Counter Terrorism: What We Know and What We Need to Know

This study seeks to answer the question “What are police doing to counter terrorism?” We use a multistep process to unearth these global tendencies of police responses. First, we review existing studies which have surveyed police agencies about their counterterrorism activities. To supplement this existing research, we then report preliminary findings from three new studies currently underway by the authors and others. We conclude by providing an agenda for future research and action given this exercise. Specifically, the one major lesson that emerges that influences our agenda is: Despite the proliferation and spending on police counterterrorism efforts, very little is known about the nature and effectiveness of police counterterrorism strategies. Clearly, building the knowledge and a research infrastructure to support such knowledge with regard to police counterterrorism strategies is an essential and currently missing component of this research and action arena.

Reinventing American Policing

Two principles should form the bedrock for effective policing in a democratic society. The first is that crimes averted, not arrests made, should be the primary metric for judging police effectiveness. The second is that citizens’ views about the police and their tactics for preventing crime and disorder matter independently of police effectiveness. Each principle is important in its own right and supported by research evidence. Neither has standing to trump the other and must be balanced on a case-by-case basis. In turn, these two principles should guide twenty-first-century efforts to reinvent American policing. Seven steps are essential to reinvention of democratic policing: Prioritize crime prevention over arrest. Create and install systems that monitor citizen reactions to the police and routinely report results back to the public and police supervisors and officers. Reform training and redefine the “craft of policing.” Recalibrate organizational incentives. Strengthen accountability with greater transparency. Incorporate the analysis of crime and citizen reaction into managerial practice. Strengthen national-level research and evaluation.

Violence, drug markets and racial composition: challenging stereotypes through spatial analysis.

Places in which there is a strong spatial connection between violence and drug activity can often evoke particular stereotypes. They are believed to be places marked by high levels of social disorganisation, unemployment, disorder and racial heterogeneity. Yet scholars have argued that the spatial relationship between drug market activity and violence is more complicated and that other factors may explain this geographical connection. In the first article of this two-part series, different types of spatial analysis were employed to describe crime concentrations of drugs and violence. Evidence was found that challenges the notion that places with drug activity are inevitably more violent. This second paper examines what factors predict these variations in drug–violence spatial patterns in Seattle when derived using different spatial methods. The findings indicate that racial composition, disorder and unemployment may not be as salient as once believed in predicting places that are violent drug markets.