Cynthia McClintock

Why Peasants Rebel: The Case of Peru's Sendero Luminoso

In this article I shall examine the origins of a major rural revolutionary movement, Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path). An extremist Maoist organization, Sendero has gained considerable peasant support in Perus southern highlands, especially in the Ayacucho area. Although peasant unrest has been endemic in Peru, the scope and intensity of the current movement are unprecedented. Never before has a Peruvian guerrilla group ranged over such a wide part of the country, and never before has such a group threatened the order of daily life in the capital.

Correlates of Levels of Democracy in Latin America During the 1990s

Does the conventional wisdom about the relationships between economic, cultural, and political party variables and democracy stand up in the Latin American experience of the 1990s? This study, utilizing new data sets for the region, finds that some traditional hypotheses are upheld better than others. It sustains the conventional wisdom that economic development, economic growth, democratic values, and (with a two-year lead) education correlate positively with the level of democracy. Surprisingly, however, neither social trust nor the number of political parties is significantly correlated with the level of democracy. The study suggests various possible explanations for the weak or nonexistent relationships for social trust and number of parties, in the hope that these surprising results will stimulate further research.

An Unlikely Comeback in Peru

Abstract:Alan García emerged victorious in Peru’s 2006 presidential election because he promised what most Peruvians wanted: democracy and social justice, but also a respect for the market. Keeping this promise will not be easy. In contrast to the time of García’s first administration, however, Peru’s economy is now growing robustly, the country is by and large at political peace, and García has a good deal more experience. Under the García government, Peru’s deep socio-economic divides may at last be bridged, and its democracy may move closer to consolidation.

Theories of Revolution and the Case of Peru

In 1991 and especially in 1992 prior to the September capture of Abimael Guzman, some analysts of the Shining Path (SL or Sendero) were forecasting a victory for the guerrilla movement within five years or less. Most believed that a revolutionary victory was possible. Said Peruvian analyst Enrique Obando: “The state is on the verge of defeat. The armed forces could tumble down at any moment.”1 Warned Gustavo Gorriti: “If they [the Shining Path] continue this way, they will be able to beat the Peruvian state.”2 Concluded a U.S.-based analyst: “The Shining Path has become a direct threat to the government of Peru.”3 In 1989, SL inflicted more deaths, controlled a greater percentage of national territory, and was approved in opinion polls by a larger percentage of citizens than the guerrilla movement in El Salvador.4

Reevaluating Runoffs in Latin America

Abstract:Since the 1960s, the most common rule used for electing presidents worldwide has shifted from plurality (first-past-the-post) to majority runoff (a requirement for a second round between the top two candidates if no candidate wins 50 percent of the vote). Between 1990 and 2016 in Latin America, levels of democracy improved in most countries under runoff but plummeted in most countries under plurality. Runoff lowered barriers to entry for new parties. It also ensured that the president had majority support and enticed candidates toward the political center. While the concerns many scholars have expressed about the proliferation of political parties under runoff is not unwarranted, this issue can be mitigated through additional institutional innovations.

Latin American Politics

We explore various questions. Why, overall, has Latin America democratized? Why has democracy fared well in some nations and poorly in others? We focus on four sets of explanations: 1) political culture and history 2) economic development 3) international context and 4) political institutions. With respect to economic development, special attention is given to “modernization theory,” “dependency theory” and “the resource curse.”