Cyrus Samii

The impact of land property rights interventions on investment and agricultural productivity in developing countries: a systematic review

ABSTRACT We conducted a systematic review on the effects of land tenure recognition interventions on agricultural productivity, income, investment and other relevant outcomes. We synthesise findings from 20 quantitative studies and nine qualitative studies that passed a methodological screening. The results indicate substantial productivity and income gains from land tenure recognition, although gains differ markedly by region. We find that these effects may operate through gains in perceived tenure security and investment; we find no evidence for a credit mechanism. The qualitative synthesis highlights potential adverse effects. A conclusion emphasises the need for further research on inter-regional differences and on the role of customary tenure arrangements.

Civil War and Social Capital: Behavioral-Game Evidence from Nepal

Using original behavioral games and survey data from Nepal we find that members of communities with greater exposure to violence during Nepal’s ten-year civil war exhibit significantly greater levels of social capital, measured by subjects’ willingness to invest in trust-based transactions and contribute to a collective good. Our identification strategy exploits communities’ exogenous isolation from the unpredictable path of war. We also offer new causal mechanisms. Previous work has suggested a mechanism at the level of individuals’ preferences. We by contrast hypothesize two community-level causal mechanisms for this relationship. First according to our institutional hypothesis communities that suffered war-related violence were forced to adopt new norms that fostered pro-social behavior. Second, our purging hypothesis conjectures that violence may have caused less pro-social individuals to flee at a higher rate than more pro-social persons, leaving a disproportionately pro-social population in violence- plagued communities. We find strong evidence for a community-level effect and no evidence for the purging hypothesis, suggesting the institutional mechanism is at work. We also find evidence for the individual-preference-based mechanism.

Reintegrating Rebels into Civilian Life

Considerable resources are devoted to ex-combatant reintegration programs in current peace processes, but evidence on their effectiveness remains thin. We use original survey data to study an ex-combatant reintegration program implemented after Burundis 1993-2004 civil war. Previous quantitative studies have found reintegration programs to be ineffective, but only ex-combatants who self-selected into programs were studied. We avoid such selection problems with a quasi-experimental design exploiting an exogenous bureaucratic failure. We find the program resulted in a 20 to 35 percentage point reduction in poverty incidence among ex-combatants and moderate improvement in livelihoods. But this economic boost does not seem to have caused political reintegration: while we find a modest increase in propensities to report civilian life as preferable to combatant life, we find no evidence that the program contributed to either more satisfaction with the peace process or a more positive disposition toward current government institutions.

Estimating average causal effects under general interference, with application to a social network experiment

This paper presents a randomization-based framework for estimating causal effects under interference between units, motivated by challenges that arise in analyzing experiments on social networks. The framework integrates three components: (i) an experimental design that defines the probability distribution of treatment assignments, (ii) a mapping that relates experimental treatment assignments to exposures received by units in the experiment, and (iii) estimands that make use of the experiment to answer questions of substantive interest. We develop the case of estimating average unit-level causal effects from a randomized experiment with interference of arbitrary but known form. The resulting estimators are based on inverse probability weighting. We provide randomization-based variance estimators that account for the complex clustering that can occur when interference is present. We also establish consistency and asymptotic normality under local dependence assumptions. We discuss refinements including covariate-adjusted effect estimators and ratio estimation. We evaluate empirical performance in realistic settings with a naturalistic simulation using social network data from American schools. We then present results from a field experiment on the spread of anti-conflict norms and behavior among school students.

Who wants to forgive and forget? Transitional justice preferences in postwar Burundi

While transitional justice interventions are common in current post-conflict transitions, recent surveys in such settings suggest that public opinions often vary in their levels of support for such policies. Understanding such opinions is crucial for designing post-conflict policies that properly reflect public interests. This study uses original survey data from Burundi to interpret public opinions toward transitional justice policies in a post-civil war context. The data reveal a great deal of wariness among Burundians toward punishing human rights offenders or seeking the truth about the past. Why would large numbers of those entitled to accountability and truth express a preference to ‘forgive and forget’? This question is addressed by focusing on two important features of post-conflict settings – namely (1) uncertainty about the potential for renewed violence and (2) intense competition over how the postwar balance of power should be institutionalized. Findings suggest that the latter feature is indeed crucial: deep partisan motivations associated primarily with ethnicity, and to a lesser extent region, are key determinants of expressed desires to forgive and forget. A reasonable interpretation is that a sense of political gain may compensate for debts owed due to past abuses and induce a preference to avoid the pursuit of truth or punishment lest the political gains somehow be threatened. The conclusion draws out implications for policy and further research.

Causal Empiricism in Quantitative Research

Quantitative analysis of causal effects in political science has trended toward the adoption of “causal empiricist” approaches. Such approaches place heavy emphasis on causal identification through experimental and natural experimental designs and on characterizing the specific subpopulations for which effects are identified. This trend is eroding the position of traditional regression studies as the prevailing convention for quantitative causal research in political science. This essay clarifies what is at stake. I provide a causal empiricist critique of conventional regression studies, a statement of core pillars of causal empiricism, and a discussion of how causal empiricism and theory interact. I propose that the trend toward causal empiricism should be welcomed by a broad array of political scientists. The trend fits into a broader push to reimagine our discipline in terms of collective research programs with high standards for evidence and a research division of labor.

Promoting democracy in fragile states: insights from a field experiment in Liberia

A field experiment in rural Liberia is used to study democratic participation in fragile states. Fragile states are marked by political fragmentation, local patronage systems, and voter vulnerability. To understand the effects of such conditions on democratic expression through elections, the experiment introduced new forms of interaction between rural citizens and third-party actors: (i) civic education and town hall workshops directed by non-governmental organizations in communities over nine months and (ii) security committees that brought rural community representatives into monthly exchange with United Nations peacekeepers. Civic education workshops increased enthusiasm for electoral participation, produced a coordinated shift from parochial to national candidates, and increased willingness to report on manipulation. A program combining the two interactions had similar effects. The security committees had negligible effects. Barriers to political information and voter coordination appear to be important but resolvable problems for elections in fragile states.

From Local to Global: External Validity in a Fertility Natural Experiment

Experimental evidence on a range of interventions in developing countries is accumulating rapidly. Is it possible to extrapolate from an experimental evidence base to other locations of policy interest (from “reference” to “target” sites)? And which factors determine the accuracy of such an extrapolation? We investigate applying the Angrist and Evans (1998) natural experiment (the effect of boy-boy or girl-girl as the first two children on incremental fertility and mothers’ labor force participation) to data from International IPUMS on 166 country-year censuses. We define the external validity function with extrapolation error depending on covariate differences between reference and target locations, and find that smaller differences in geography, education, calendar year, and mothers’ labor force participation lead to lower extrapolation error. As experimental evidence accumulates, out-of-sample extrapolation error does not systematically approach zero if the available evidence base is naively extrapolated, but does if the external validity function is used to select the most appropriate reference context for a given target (although absolute error remains meaningful relative to the magnitude of the treatment effect). We also investigate where to locate experiments and the decision problem associated with extrapolating from existing evidence rather than running a new experiment at a target site.

International Institutions and Political Liberalization: Evidence from the World Bank Loans Program

How do international institutions affect political liberalization in member states? Motivated by an examination of the World Bank loans program, we argue that institutions can confer prestige in exchange for political reforms. When offered an opportunity to improve their institutionally-conferred status, thereby boosting their international and domestic reputations, states are willing to make policy concessions in exchange. To test our theory, we exploit a unique feature of the World Bank loans program: when a loan recipient reaches a specified level of economic development, it becomes eligible to graduate from borrower status. Although graduation entails losing access to loans, governments typically seek to graduate. We show that governments view graduation as an indicator of the transition from a developing state to a developed state. Using a unique regression discontinuity design, we demonstrate that when states become eligible for graduation, their governments democratize to achieve this enhanced status. Thus, a governments interest in improving its status in the international system can motivate domestic reform.

Local Instruments, Global Extrapolation: External Validity of the Labor Supply–Fertility Local Average Treatment Effect

We investigate the external validity of local average treatment effects (LATEs), specifically Angrist and Evans’s use of same sex of the two first children as an instrumental variable for the effect of fertility on labor supply. We estimate their specification in 139 country-year censuses using Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample–International data. We compare each country-year’s actual LATE to the extrapolated LATE from other country-years. We find that, with a sufficiently large reference sample, we extrapolate the treatment effect reasonably well, but the degree of accuracy depends on the extent of covariate similarity between the target and reference settings.