D. Andrew R. Drake

Least‐cost transportation networks predict spatial interaction of invasion vectors

Human-mediated dispersal among aquatic ecosystems often results in biotic transfer between drainage basins. Such activities may circumvent biogeographic factors, with considerable ecological, evolutionary, and economic implications. However, the efficacy of predictions concerning community changes following inter-basin movements are limited, often because the dispersal mechanism is poorly understood (e.g., quantified only partially). To date, spatial-interaction models that predict the movement of humans as vectors of biotic transfer have not incorporated patterns of human movement through transportation networks. As a necessary first step to determine the role of anglers as invasion vectors across a land-lake ecosystem, we investigate their movement potential within Ontario, Canada. To determine possible model improvements resulting from inclusion of network travel, spatial-interaction models were constructed using standard Euclidean (e.g., straight-line) distance measures and also with distances derived from least-cost routing of human transportation networks. Model comparisons determined that least-cost routing both provided the most parsimonious model and also excelled at forecasting spatial interactions, with a proportion of 0.477 total movement deviance explained. The distribution of movements was characterized by many relatively short to medium travel distances (median = 292.6 km) with fewer lengthier distances (75th percentile = 484.6 km, 95th percentile = 775.2 km); however, even the shortest movements were sufficient to overcome drainage-basin boundaries. Ranking of variables in order of their contribution within the most parsimonious model determined that distance traveled, origin outflow, lake attractiveness, and sportfish richness significantly influence movement patterns. Model improvements associated with least-cost routing of human transportation networks imply that patterns of human-mediated invasion are fundamentally linked to the spatial configuration and relative impedance of human transportation networks, placing increased importance on understanding their contribution to the invasion process.

Bycatch, bait, anglers, and roads: quantifying vector activity and propagule introduction risk across lake ecosystems

Long implicated in the invasion process, live-bait anglers are highly mobile species vectors with frequent overland transport of fishes. To test hypotheses about the role of anglers in propagule transport, we developed a social-ecological model quantifying the opportunity for species transport beyond the invaded range resulting from bycatch during commercial bait operations, incidental transport, and release to lake ecosystems by anglers. We combined a gravity model with a stochastic, agent-based simulation, representing a 1-yr iteration of live-bait angling and the dynamics of propagule transport at fine spatiotemporal scales (i.e., probability of introducing n propagules per lake per year). A baseline scenario involving round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) indicated that most angling trips were benign; irrespective of lake visitation, anglers failed to purchase and transport propagules (benign trips, median probability P = 0.99912). However, given the large number of probability trials (4.2 million live-bait angling events per year), even the rarest sequence of events (uptake, movement, and deposition of propagules) is anticipated to occur. Risky trips (modal P = 0.00088 trips per year; approximately 1 in 1136) were sufficient to introduce a substantial number of propagules (modal values, Poisson model = 3715 propagules among 1288 lakes per year; zero-inflated negative binomial model = 6722 propagules among 1292 lakes per year). Two patterns of lake-specific introduction risk emerged. Large lakes supporting substantial angling activity experienced propagule pressure likely to surpass demographic barriers to establishment (top 2.5% of lakes with modal outcomes of five to 76 propagules per year; 303 high-risk lakes with three or more propagules, per year). Small or remote lakes were less likely to receive propagules; however, most risk distributions were leptokurtic with a long right tail, indicating the rare occurrence of high propagule loads to most waterbodies. Infestation simulations indicated that the number of high-risk waterbodies could be as great as 1318 (zero-inflated negative binomial), whereas a 90% reduction in bycatch from baseline would reduce the modal number of high risk lakes to zero. Results indicate that the combination of invasive bycatch and live-bait anglers warrants management concern as a species vector, but that risk is confined to a subset of individuals and recipient sites that may be effectively managed with targeted strategies.

Relative invasion risk for plankton across marine and freshwater systems: examining efficacy of proposed international ballast water discharge standards.

Understanding the implications of different management strategies is necessary to identify best conservation trajectories for ecosystems exposed to anthropogenic stressors. For example, science-based risk assessments at large scales are needed to understand efficacy of different vector management approaches aimed at preventing biological invasions associated with commercial shipping. We conducted a landscape-scale analysis to examine the relative invasion risk of ballast water discharges among different shipping pathways (e.g., Transoceanic, Coastal or Domestic), ecosystems (e.g., freshwater, brackish and marine), and timescales (annual and per discharge event) under current and future management regimes. The arrival and survival potential of nonindigenous species (NIS) was estimated based on directional shipping networks and their associated propagule pressure, environmental similarity between donor-recipient ecosystems (based on salinity and temperature), and effects of current and future management strategies (i.e., ballast water exchange and treatment to meet proposed international biological discharge standards). Our findings show that current requirements for ballast water exchange effectively reduce invasion risk to freshwater ecosystems but are less protective of marine ecosystems because of greater environmental mismatch between source (oceanic) and recipient (freshwater) ecoregions. Future requirements for ballast water treatment are expected to reduce risk of zooplankton NIS introductions across ecosystem types but are expected to be less effective in reducing risk of phytoplankton NIS. This large-scale risk assessment across heterogeneous ecosystems represents a major step towards understanding the likelihood of invasion in relation to shipping networks, the relative efficacy of different invasion management regimes and seizing opportunities to reduce the ecological and economic implications of biological invasions.

Do Fish Drive Recreational Fishing License Sales

AbstractManagement agencies need to understand the factors that influence fishing license purchases. While traits such as gender can influence the decisions of recreational fishers, a gap remains in understanding the influence of catch-related fishing quality on these decisions. We evaluated the use of fish biomass density as a proxy for catch-related fishing quality along with non-catch-related factors (population density, gender, and ethnicity) to explain variation in 2014 resident fishing license rates across 510 origins in Ontario. License rates were higher in areas with lower population density (i.e., rural areas), in areas with higher fish biomass density, and among populations with stronger representation by ethnic majorities. From simulated scenarios, we predicted that resident license sales could increase between 14% and 25% if fish biomass density increased by 30% and 54% in northeastern and southern Ontario, respectively. However, license sales could decrease between 5% and 10% with a 30% redis...

Optimizing performance of nonparametric species richness estimators under constrained sampling

Abstract Understanding the functional relationship between the sample size and the performance of species richness estimators is necessary to optimize limited sampling resources against estimation error. Nonparametric estimators such as Chao and Jackknife demonstrate strong performances, but consensus is lacking as to which estimator performs better under constrained sampling. We explore a method to improve the estimators under such scenario. The method we propose involves randomly splitting species‐abundance data from a single sample into two equally sized samples, and using an appropriate incidence‐based estimator to estimate richness. To test this method, we assume a lognormal species‐abundance distribution (SAD) with varying coefficients of variation (CV), generate samples using MCMC simulations, and use the expected mean‐squared error as the performance criterion of the estimators. We test this method for Chao, Jackknife, ICE, and ACE estimators. Between abundance‐based estimators with the single sample, and incidence‐based estimators with the split‐in‐two samples, Chao2 performed the best when CV < 0.65, and incidence‐based Jackknife performed the best when CV > 0.65, given that the ratio of sample size to observed species richness is greater than a critical value given by a power function of CV with respect to abundance of the sampled population. The proposed method increases the performance of the estimators substantially and is more effective when more rare species are in an assemblage. We also show that the splitting method works qualitatively similarly well when the SADs are log series, geometric series, and negative binomial. We demonstrate an application of the proposed method by estimating richness of zooplankton communities in samples of ballast water. The proposed splitting method is an alternative to sampling a large number of individuals to increase the accuracy of richness estimations; therefore, it is appropriate for a wide range of resource‐limited sampling scenarios in ecology.

Stakeholder attitudes towards to the use of recombinant technology to manage the impact of an invasive species: Sea Lamprey in the North American Great Lakes

Several factors, including: (1) on-going difficulties of cost-effectively managing invasive species; (2) recent successes in using recombinant genetics to suppress mosquito populations; and, (3) developments in gene-drive technology, have re-invigorated interest in using genetic biotechnology to manage the impacts of invasive species. However, the extent to which there is ‘social license’ to develop and use these technologies has not been widely canvassed. We surveyed stakeholders involved directly and indirectly in managing Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in the upper North American Great Lakes and a key community group of resource users—recreational fishers—to assess their support and concerns about researching, developing, and potentially implementing recombinant methods that an expert group assessed as likely to be effective in managing Sea Lamprey in the Great Lakes. Both groups overwhelmingly supported initiating R&D and, if risks were deemed very low, undertaking steps towards implementation. The key concern expressed by both groups was the risk of impacts to non-target taxa, including valued native populations of Sea Lamprey outside of the Great Lakes. Few respondents expressed opposition based on ethical or moral grounds, which contrasts with previous surveys on the use of recombinant technology in general. The broad support for R&D into recombinant approaches is likely to reflect trust in the nominated implementing agency (the Great Lakes Fishery Commission), its history of extensive consultation prior to undertaking management actions, and the hope that genetic biocontrol could “solve” the Sea Lamprey problem rather than simply managing it.