D. Maletic

Forecasting of VOC emissions from traffic and industry using classification and regression multivariate methods.

In this study, advanced multivariate methods were applied for VOC source apportionment and subsequent short-term forecast of industrial- and vehicle exhaust-related contributions in Belgrade urban area (Serbia). The VOC concentrations were measured using PTR-MS, together with inorganic gaseous pollutants (NOx, NO, NO2, SO2, and CO), PM10, and meteorological parameters. US EPA Positive Matrix Factorization and Unmix receptor models were applied to the obtained dataset both resolving six source profiles. For the purpose of forecasting industrial- and vehicle exhaust-related source contributions, different multivariate methods were employed in two separate cases, relying on meteorological data, and on meteorological data and concentrations of inorganic gaseous pollutants, respectively. The results indicate that Boosted Decision Trees and Multi-Layer Perceptrons were the best performing methods. According to the results, forecasting accuracy was high (lowest relative error of only 6%), in particular when the forecast was based on both meteorological parameters and concentrations of inorganic gaseous pollutants.

Forecasting hourly particulate matter concentrations based on the advanced multivariate methods

In this study, several multivariate methods were used for forecasting hourly PM10 concentrations at four locations based on SO2 and meteorological data from the previous period. According to the results, boosted decision trees and multi-layer perceptrons yielded the best predictions. The forecasting performances were similar for all examined locations, despite the additional PM10 spatio-temporal analysis showed that the sites were affected by different emission sources, topographic and microclimatic conditions. The best prediction of PM10 concentrations was obtained for industrial sites, probably due to the simplicity and regularity of dominant pollutant emissions on a daily basis. Conversely, somewhat weaker forecast accuracy was achieved at urban canyon avenue, which can be attributed to the specific urban morphology and most diverse emission sources. In conclusion to this, the integration of advanced multivariate methods in air quality forecasting systems could enhance accuracy and provide the basis for efficient decision-making in environmental regulatory management.

Daily and seasonal radon variability in the underground low-background laboratory in Belgrade, Serbia.

Radon time-series analysis, based on the short-term indoor radon measurements performed worldwide, shows two main periodicity: daily and seasonal. The information obtained from time series of the measured radon values is the results of the complex radon dynamics that arises from the influence of the large number of different parameters (the state of the indoor atmosphere (temperature, pressure and relative humidity, aerosol concentration), the exchange rate between indoor and outdoor air and so on). In this paper we considered daily radon variability in the underground low-background laboratory in Belgrade, Serbia. The results are originated from the radon time-series analysis based on the 3 y of the continuous short-term indoor radon measurements. At the same time, we obtained the time series of the temperature, pressure and relative humidity in the laboratory. We also tried to find the correlation between different time series.

First steps towards national radon action plan in Serbia

Abstract Radon problem has a special attention in many countries in the world and the most of them have established national radon programmes. The radon issues in Serbia have not been approached in a systematic and organized way. Currently, there are many research groups and institutions working in radon field, and it is a good basis to integrate all these activities into a comprehensive national programme to define the strategic objectives and action plan for the next few years. Also, Serbia as a candidate for membership in the EU is obliged to harmonize its legislation, including the field of radiation protection in which the radon issues has an important role. In this report, a brief history of radon research, present status and plans for the future activity on radon issues in Serbia are presented. Regarding the long-term plans, the establishment and implementation of the Radon Action Plan with the primary goal of raising awareness about the harmful effects of public exposure to radon and implementing a set of measures for its reduction. In that sense, the synergy between the national, regional and local organizations responsible for public health and radiation protection must be achieved.

Neutrons produced by muons at 25 mwe

The flux of fast neutrons produced by CR muons in lead at the depth of 25 mwe is measured. Lead is a common shielding material and neutrons produced in it in muon interactions are unavoidable background component, even in sensitive deep underground experiments. A low background gamma spectrometer, equipped with high purity Ge detector in coincidence with muon detector is used for this purpose. Neutrons are identified by the structure at 692 KeV in the spectrum of delayed coincidences, caused by the neutron inelastic scattering on Ge-72 isotope. Preliminary result for the fast neutron rate is 3.1(5) × 10−-4n/cm2 · s.

The use of multivariate analysis of the radon variability in the underground laboratory and indoor environment

Abstract The paper presents results of multivariate analysis of variations of radon concentrations in the shallow underground laboratory and a family house, depending on meteorological variables only. All available multivariate classification and regression methods, developed for data analysis in high-energy physics and implemented in the toolkit for multivariate analysis (TMVA) software package in ROOT, are used in the analysis. The result of multivariate regression analysis is a mapped functional behaviour of variations of radon concentration depending on meteorological variables only, which can be used for the evaluation of radon concentration, as well as to help with modelling of variation of radon concentration. The results of analysis of the radon concentration variations in the underground laboratory and real indoor environment, using multivariate methods, demonstrated the potential usefulness of these methods. Multivariate analysis showed that there is a potentially considerable prediction power of variations of indoor radon concentrations based on the knowledge of meteorological variables only. In addition, the online system using the resulting mapped functional behaviour for underground laboratory in the Institute of Physics Belgrade is implemented, and the resulting evaluation of radon concentrations are presented in this paper.

Variations of gamma-ray background in the Belgrade shallow underground low-level laboratory

During the last three years we investigated the variations of background simultaneously in two laboratories, the ground level (GLL) and the underground laboratory. The Forbush-like effect from March 2010 was observed in the GLL using a Ge detector and plastic veto scintillator. The underground plastic scintillator saw the same effect but the coincident veto spectrum did not detect the decrease of cosmic-ray intensity. Using a time series analysis of prominent post-radon lines, a significant radon daily variability was detected in the Ge detector background spectrum, but only in the GLL.

Stopped cosmic-ray muons in plastic scintillators on the surface and at the depth of 25 m.w.e

Cosmic ray muons stopped in 5 cm thick plastic scintillators at surface and at depth of 25 m.w.e are studied. Apart from the stopped muon rate we measured the spectrum of muon decay electrons and the degree of polarization of stopped muons. Preliminary results for the Michel parameter yield values lower than the currently accepted one, while the asymmetry between the numbers of decay positrons registered in the upper and lower hemispheres appear higher than expected on the basis of numerous earlier studies.