D. McGrath

Hypsometric control on glacier mass balance sensitivity in Alaska and northwest Canada

Glacier hypsometry provides a first-order approach for assessing a glaciers response to climate forcings. We couple the Randolph Glacier Inventory to a suite of in situ observations and climate model output to examine potential change for the ∼27,000 glaciers in Alaska and northwest Canada through the end of the 21st century. By 2100, based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5–8.5 forcings, summer temperatures are predicted to increase between +2.1 and +4.6°C, while solid precipitation (snow) is predicted to decrease by −6 to −11%, despite a +9 to +21% increase in total precipitation. Snow is predicted to undergo a pronounced decrease in the fall, shifting the start of the accumulation season back by ∼1 month. In response to these forcings, the regional equilibrium line altitude (ELA) may increase by +105 to +225 m by 2100. The mass balance sensitivity to this increase is highly variable, with the most substantive impact for glaciers with either limited elevation ranges (often small ( 60%. Our results highlight the first-order control of hypsometry on individual glacier response to climate change, and the variability that hypsometry introduces to a regional response to a coherent climate perturbation.

Fracture propagation and stability of ice shelves governed by ice shelf heterogeneity

Tabular iceberg calving and ice shelf retreat occurs after full-thickness fractures, known as rifts, propagate across an ice shelf. A quickly evolving rift signals a threat to the stability of Larsen C, the Antarctic Peninsulas largest ice shelf. Here, we reveal the influence of ice shelf heterogeneity on the growth of this rift, with implications that challenge existing notions of ice shelf stability. Most of the rift extension has occurred in bursts after overcoming the resistance of suture zones that bind together neighboring glacier inflows. We model the stresses in the ice shelf to determine potential rift trajectories. Calving perturbations to ice flow will likely reach the grounding line. The stability of Larsen C may hinge on a single suture zone that stabilizes numerous upstream rifts. Elevated fracture toughness of suture zones may be the most important property that allows ice shelves to modulate Antarcticas contribution to sea level rise.

Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

High-resolution regional-scale hydrologic models were used to quantify the response of late 21st century runoff from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) watershed to changes in regional climate and glacier extent. NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data were combined with five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 General Circulation Models (GCM) for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) to develop meteorological forcing for the period 2070–2099. A hypsographic model was used to estimate future glacier extent given assumed equilibrium line altitude (ELA) increases of 200 and 400 m. GCM predictions show an increase in annual precipitation of 12% for RCP 4.5 and 21% for RCP 8.5, and an increase in annual temperature of 2.5°C for RCP 4.5 and 4.3°C for RCP 8.5, averaged across the GOA. Scenarios with perturbed climate and glaciers predict annual GOA-wide runoff to increase by 9% for RCP4.5/ELA200 case and 14% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. The glacier runoff decreased by 14% for RCP4.5/ELA200 and by 34% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. Inter-model variability in annual runoff was found to be approximately twice the variability in precipitation input. Additionally, there are significant changes in runoff partitioning and increases in snowpack runoff are dominated by increases in rain-on-snow events. We present results aggregated across the entire GOA and also for individual watersheds to illustrate the range in hydrologic regime changes, and explore the sensitivities of these results by independently perturbing only climate forcings and only glacier cover.

Hydrologic and geomorphic changes resulting from episodic glacial lake outburst floods: Rio Colonia, Patagonia, Chile

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a prominent but poorly understood cryospheric hazard in a warming climate. We quantify the hydrologic and geomorphic response to 21 episodic GLOFs that began in April 2008 using multitemporal satellite imagery and field observations. Peak discharge exiting the source lake became progressively muted downstream. At ~40–60 km downstream, where the floods entered and traveled down the main stem Rio Baker, peak discharges were generally  1–2 times the peak annual discharge of this system, Chiles largest river by volume. As such, caution must be applied to empirical relationships relating lake volume to peak discharge, as the latter is dependent on where this observation is made along the flood path. The GLOFs and subsequent periods of free drainage resulted in > 40 m of incision, the net removal of ~25 × 106 m3 of sediment from the source lake basin, and a nonsteady channel configuration downstream. These results demonstrate that GLOFs sourced from low-order tributaries can produce significant floods on major main stem rivers, in addition to significantly altering sediment dynamics.

Near‐Surface Environmentally Forced Changes in the Ross Ice Shelf Observed With Ambient Seismic Noise

Author(s): Chaput, J.; Aster, R. C; McGrath, D.; Baker, M.; Anthony, R. E; Gerstoft, P.; Bromirski, P.; Nyblade, A.; Stephen, R. A; Wiens, D. A; Das, S. B; Stevens, L. A

A Snow Density Dataset for Improving Surface Boundary Conditions in Greenland Ice Sheet Firn Modeling

The surface snow density of glaciers and ice sheets is of fundamental importance in converting volume to mass in both altimetry and surface mass balance studies, yet it is often poorly constrained. Site-specific surface snow densities are typically derived from empirical relations based on temperature and wind speed. These parameterizations commonly calculate the average density of the top meter of snow, thereby systematically overestimating snow density at the actual surface. Therefore, constraining surface snow density to the top 0.1 m can improve boundary conditions in high-resolution firn-evolution modeling. We have compiled an extensive dataset of 200 point measurements of surface snow density from firn cores and snow pits on the Greenland ice sheet. We find that surface snow density within 0.1 m of the surface has an average value of 315 kg m−3 with a standard deviation of 44 kg m−3, and has an insignificant annual air temperature dependency. We demonstrate that two widely-used surface snow density parameterizations dependent on temperature systematically overestimate surface snow density over the Greenland ice sheet by 17–19%, and that using a constant density of 315 kg m−3 may give superior results when applied in surface mass budget modeling.

A first overview of SnowEx ground-based remote sensing activities during the winter 2016–2017

NASA SnowExs goal is estimating how much water is stored in Earths terrestrial snow-covered regions. To that end, two fundamental questions drive the mission objectives: (a) What is the distribution of snow-water equivalent (SWE), and the snow energy balance, among different canopy and topographic situations?; and (b) What is the sensitivity and accuracy of different SWE sensing techniques among these different areas? In situ, ground-based and airborne remote sensing observations were collected during winter 2016–2017 in Colorado to provide the scientific community with data needed to work on these key questions. An intensive period of observations occurred in February 2017 during which over 30 remote sensing instruments were used. Their observations were coordinated with in situ measurements from snowpits (e.g. profiles of stratigraphy, density, grain size and type, specific surface area, temperature) and along transects (mainly for snow depth measurements). Both remote sensing and in situ data will be archived and publicly distributed by the National Snow and Ice Data Center at nsidc.org/data/snowex.