D. Pantosti

Paleoseismology Along the 1980 Surface Rupture of the Irpinia Fault' Implications for Earthquake Recurrence in the Southern Apennines, Italy

The Irpinia fault was the source of the Ms 6.9 1980 Irpinia earthquake and produced the first unequivocal historical surface faulting in Italy. Trenching of the 1980 fault scarp at Piano di Pecore, a flat intermontane basin about 5 km south of the 1980 instrumental epicenter, provides the first data on earthquake recurrence intervals, slip per event, and slip rate on a major normal fault in the Southern Apennines fault zone. The trenches exposed evidence of four pre-1980 paleoearthquakes that occurred during the past 8600 years. A best estimate average recurrence interval is 2150 years, although the time interval between individual events varies by as much as a factor of 2. Each paleo earthquake is similar to the 1980 surface rupture in amount of slip and style of deformation, which suggests that the 1980 event is characteristic for the Irpinia fault. Slip per event values average 61 cm. The net vertical displacement of 2.12–2.36 m since 8600 cal year B.P. observed in the trenches gives a vertical slip rate of 0.25–0.35 mm/yr, a dip slip rate of 0.29–0.40 mm/yr, and an extension rate of 0.14–0.20 mm/yr. Although fault behavior data are only available for the Irpinia fault they provide a starting point for evaluating earthquake recurrence and rates of deformation in southern Apennines. They suggest that (1) fault specific earthquake recurrence intervals based on the historical seismic record overestimates the occurrence of large magnitude (M7) earthquakes and (2) the Holocene rate of extension across the Apennines is ≤1 mm/yr. The 1980 earthquake and the paleoseismologic observations show that repeated and localized surface faulting occurs in southern Apennines and leaves subtle but distinct geomorphic evidence that can be detected with detailed and careful investigation.

Paleoseismicity of the Ovindoli-Pezza fault, central Apennines, Italy: A history including a large, previously unrecorded earthquake in the Middle Ages (860–1300 A.D.)

Geomorphic and trenching investigations along the Ovindoli-Pezza fault show that this normal fault is one of the major seismogenic faults in the central Apennines. We found clear geological evidence for three Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes on this fault : the most recent earthquake occurred in the Middle Ages between 860 and 1300 A.D., the penultimate occurred about 1900 B.C. or shortly after, and the oldest probably occurred between 3300 and 5000 B.C. Although the most recent surface faulting earthquake occurred during historical time, no evidence for it have been found in the historical record. Slip per event ranges between 2 and 3 m, and the length of the rupture is at least 12-20 km, suggesting M 6.5-7.0 for the paleoearthquakes. The dip-slip rate determined from trenching is 0.7-1.2 mm/yr and is consistent with the long-term slip rate of 0.9-2.5 mm/yr (lower values preferred) obtained from displaced geomorphic features. Trench data combined with long-term slip rate estimates suggest the recurrence interval is longer than a millennium and possibly as long as 3300 years. The time elapsed since the most recent earthquake is 700-1130 years. The seismic behavior of the Ovindoli-Pezza fault is consistent with other well-known seismogenic faults of the central and southern Apennines. The lack of mention or mislocation of the most recent event on the Ovindoli-Pezza fault in the historical record of the past two millennia should be attributed mainly to the unsettled cultural and social conditions and poor economic state that characterized the Middle Ages, especially in thinly populated regions such as the central Apennines. This example highlights an intrinsic limit of the historical data and raises the possibility that other regions considered seismically quiet on the basis of a long historical record may in reality have had large earthquakes that were not recorded.

The investigation of potential earthquake sources in peninsular Italy: A review

We summarise and discuss almost a century of progress inthe understanding of the main characteristics of large Italian earthquakes.Topics of discussion include (1) the distribution of the largest earthquakesin relation with Late Pleistocene and Holocene faulting, (2) the geologicaland tectonic setting of the 1908 Messina Straits, 1915 Fucino Plain and1980 Irpinia earthquakes, (3) some of the geodynamic motivations for thecharacteristics of Italian seismicity, and (4) the resulting implications for theassessment of seismic hazard. In a subsequent section of the paper we present a summaryof recent achievements in the understanding and characterization of Italianseismicity, with special emphasis on the assignment of large historicalearthquakes to specific sources identified through geological observationsand on the evaluation of average recurrence intervals for individualearthquake sources. The final section describes some of the efforts being madefor matching the newly acquired geological evidence with instrumental andhistorical observations of Italian seismicity and the hypotheses than can bederived for anticipating the locus of large earthquakes of the future.

Paleoseismicity of the 1981 Corinth earthquake fault: Seismic contribution to extensional strain in central Greece and implications for seismic hazard

We present paleoseismological trenching results for the active Skinos Fault, which ruptured the surface on the Alkyonides Gulf basin margin in the 1981 Gulf of Corinth earthquake sequence. Three trenches expose evidence of up to six previous events which are comparable to the 1981 deformation in terms of size and geometry. Vertical displacement produced by the 1981 earthquake ranged from 0.45 to 1.3 m at the Bambakies Fan trench sites, decreasing towards the eastern fault tip east of the trenches. Trench 1 reveals two previous events with vertical displacements between 0.5 and 1.2 m since 390 A.D. Trench 2 reveals five or six previous events, but these are not dated. Trench 3 reveals four previous events since 670 A.D. Vertical displacements associated with interpreted paleoearthquakes at the trench sites are ≤1.2 m. The recurrence interval on the Skinos Fault is estimated to average 330 years. However, significant variation in recurrence interval is allowed by the available radiometric dates. Average vertical displacement rates derived from the trenches are in the range 0.7–2.5 mm/yr. A similar long-term average vertical displacement rate of 1.2–2.3 mm/yr is estimated for the lifespan of the basin-bounding fault. This equates to a horizontal seismic strain contribution of ≤2.5 mm/yr from the Skinos Fault. This local seismic strain rate overlaps, within error, with geodetically determined velocities across the Alkyonides Gulf assumed to represent uniform deep-crustal strain. Thus seismic deformation on the basin-bounding fault system may take up the major part of extension across the basin, and aseismic strain is not necessitated by the data. If correct, this would imply that geodetically determined strain rates may be used as a proxy for potential seismic moment release in seismic hazard analyses for this region.

Seismology and Tectonic Setting of the 2002 Molise, Italy, Earthquake

Two Mw 5.7 earthquakes struck a sparsely populated region of southern Italy, on October 31 and November 1, triggering a swarm-like sequence that lasted for several days. The earthquakes were caused by pure right-lateral slip between 10 and 24 km depth over a nearly vertical, previously undetected east-west fault. This mechanism is not typical for southern Italy, where normal faulting in the uppermost 12 km of the crust seems to dominate. However, east-west strike-slip faulting is kinematically consistent with the widely documented Apennines extension. The earthquake-causative fault appears to connect the Mattinata fault, a major active strike-slip feature cutting across the Gargano promontory, with east-west structures known beneath the axial part of the Apennines. The 2002 earthquakes thus highlighted a mode of earthquake release that may explain several large yet poorly understood historical earthquakes (e.g., 1361, 1456, 1731, 1930) located between the crest of the Apennines and the Adriatic coastline.

The Holocene paleoseismicity of the Aremogna-Cinque Miglia Fault (Central Italy)

Geomorphic and trench investigations are used toanalyze the seismic potential of the Aremogna-CinqueMiglia fault, an active N- to NW-trending, W-facingnormal fault located in Central Apennines. Wereconstructed a complex 16 km-long, as much as 6m-high, fault scarp that displaces late Holocenesediments in the Aremogna and Cinque Miglia basins.The complex surface expression of the fault, withdouble sub-parallel scarp sections, a change in strikeof about 40° and local complexity showingimportant horizontal component, appears to becontrolled by the presence of older tectoniclineaments. We opened two trenches across the faultscarp, used a quarry exposure, and reinterpreted atrench opened by Frezzotti and Giraudi (1989), to findthe geological evidence for three Holocene surfacefaulting earthquakes on the Aremogna-Cinque Migliafault. Based on radiocarbon dating and stratigraphicand climatic considerations timing of the events isconstrained between 800 B.C. and 1030 A.D., between3735 and 2940 B.C., and between 3540 and 5000 B.C.. The most recent event is not reported in the twomillennia-long Italian Catalogues of HistoricalSeismicity. We suggest that the most recent eventcould be one of the Middle Age earthquakes of unknownorigin for which several felt reports exist in Rome.Moreover, we also consider the hypothesis that one ofthe shocks of the ambiguous September 1349 earthquakesequence could be the Aremogna-Cinque Miglia mostrecent event. Anyway, based on historicalconsideration we indicate A.D. 1349 as the youngestpossible age for this event. Finally, we suggest theAremogna-Cinque Miglia fault is part of the easternsecondary Apennines seismogenic belt. The faultparameters we obtain for this fault (i.e., recurrence interval longer than 2000 yr, verticallong-term slip rate of 0.3–0.5 mm/yr and m 6.5–6.8 forthe event) can be used as a first hand reference tocharacterize the seismic behavior of other faultsalong this section of the Apennines.

Trench investigation along the Merida section of the Bocono fault (central Venezuelan Andes), Venezuela

Abstract The Bocono fault is a major NE–SW-trending, dextral fault that extends for about 500 km along the backbone of the Venezuelan Andes. Several large historical earthquakes in this region have been attributed to the Bocono fault, and some of these have been recently associated with specific parts through paleoseismologic investigations. A new trench study has been performed, 60 km to the northeast of Merida in the central Venezuelan Andes, where the fault forms a releasing bend, comprising two conspicuous late Holocene fault strands that are about 1 km apart. The southern and northern strands carry about 70% and 30% (respectively) of the 7–10 mm/yr net slip rate measured in this sector, which is based on a 40 vs. 85–100 m right-lateral offset of the Late Pleistocene Los Zerpa moraines. A trench excavated on the northern strand of the fault (near Morros de los Hoyos, slightly northeast of Apartaderos) across a twin shutter ridge and related sag pond exposed two main fault zones cutting Late Pleistocene alluvial and Holocene peat deposits. Each zone forms a shutter ridge with peat deposits ponded against the uplifted block. The paleoearthquake reconstruction derived from this trench allows us to propose the occurrence of at least 6–8 earthquakes in the past 9000 yr, yielding a maximum average recurrence interval of about 1100–1500 yr. Based on the northern strands average slip rate (2.6 mm/yr), such an earthquake sequence should have accommodated about 23 m of slip since 9 ka, suggesting that the maximum slip per event ranges between 3 and 4 m. No direct evidence for the large 1812 earthquake has been found in the trench, although this earthquake may have ruptured this section of the fault. Further paleoseismic studies will investigate the possibility that this event occurred on the Bocono fault, but ruptured mainly its southern strand in this region.

Discrimination of Tsunami Sources (Earthquake versus Landslide) on the Basis of Historical Data in Eastern Sicily and Southern Calabria

Abstract The source mechanisms responsible for large historical tsunamis that have struck eastern Sicily and southern Calabria are a topic of robust debate. We have compiled a database of historical coeval descriptions of three large tsunamis: 11 January 1693, 6 February 1783, and 28 December 1908. By using accounts of run-up and inundation and employing an approach proposed by Okal and Synolakis in 2004, we can provide discriminants to define the nature of the near-field tsunami sources (fault dislocation or landslide). Historical reports for the 1908 event describe affected localities, maximum run-ups, and inundation areas. However, for the 1693 and 1783 tsunamis, reports are limited to inundation and occasional run-up estimates. We calculate run-up values for these events using available relations between inundation and run-up. We employed the model of Okal and Synolakis to the obtained profiles of tsunami run-up along the inundated shorelines. The 1908 run-up data distribution confirms that the tsunami is compatible with a seismic dislocation source, whereas the 1783 data supports contemporary observations and recent offshore investigations suggesting that the tsunami was produced by an earthquake-triggered submarine landslide. Analysis of the 1693 event data suggests that the tsunami was generated during a tectonic event and thus a seismogenic source should be found offshore.

A GEOLOGIC CONTRIBUTION TO THE EVALUATION OF THE SEISMIC POTENTIAL OF THE KAHRIZAK FAULT (TEHRAN, IRAN)

In this paper we present the results of preliminary geomorphic and trenching investigations along the Kahrizak fault. This fault is located south of the highly populated metropolis of Tehran and represents one of the main structures in the area containing important seismic potential. The Kahrizak fault has a very clear expression at the surface where it forms a prominent 35-km-long, 15-m-high scarp on Holocene alluvial deposits. The fault strikes N70°–80°W and dips to the north. Movement is prevalently right-lateral with the northern side of the fault up. Trench excavations exposed a sequence of weathered, massive, alluvial deposits which are dated, by means of radiometric methods, to the Holocene. In the trenches the sequence is intensely deformed by north-dipping, high- and low-angle faults within a 30-m-wide zone. On the basis of stratigraphic and structural relations, some evidence for individual Holocene earthquakes is found: however, we were not able to reconstruct the seismic history of the fault nor to evaluate the size of deformation produced by each event. Because of the possible ∼10 m offset of ancient linear hydraulic artifacts (qanats), that cross the fault, we hypothesize that the most recent event may have occurred in historical times (more recent than 5000 yr B.P.) and it may be one of those reported in this area by the current catalogues of seismicity. Based on these preliminary investigations we estimate an elapsed time between 5000 and 800 years, a maximum slip per event dmax of ∼10 m. a minimum Holocene vertical slip rate of ∼1 mm/yr versus a horizontal slip rate of ∼3.5 mm/yr. a maximum of ∼3000 years for the average recurrence time, and an expected Mw = 7.0 to 7.4. These can be considered as a first-hand reference for the activity on this fault.

Paleoseismic investigations in the Santa Cruz mountains, California: Implications for recurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault

Trenching, microgeomorphic mapping, and tree ring analysis provide information on timing of paleoearthquakes and behavior of the San Andreas fault in the Santa Cruz mountains. At the Grizzly Flat site alluvial units dated at 1640–1659 A.D., 1679–1894 A.D., 1668–1893 A.D., and the present ground surface are displaced by a single event. This was the 1906 surface rupture. Combined trench dates and tree ring analysis suggest that the penultimate event occurred in the mid-1600 s, possibly in an interval as narrow as 1632–1659 A.D. There is no direct evidence in the trenches for the 1838 or 1865 earthquakes, which have been proposed as occurring on this part of the fault zone. In a minimum time of about 340 years only one large surface faulting event (1906) occurred at Grizzly Flat, in contrast to previous recurrence estimates of 95–110 years for the Santa Cruz mountains segment. Comparison with dates of the penultimate San Andreas earthquake at sites north of San Francisco suggests that the San Andreas fault between Point Arena and the Santa Cruz mountains may have failed either as a sequence of closely timed earthquakes on adjacent segments or as a single long rupture similar in length to the 1906 rupture around the mid-1600 s. The 1906 coseismic geodetic slip and the late Holocene geologic slip rate on the San Francisco peninsula and southward are about 50–70% and 70% of their values north of San Francisco, respectively. The slip gradient along the 1906 rupture section of the San Andreas reflects partitioning of plate boundary slip onto the San Gregorio, Sargent, and other faults south of the Golden Gate. If a mid-1600 s event ruptured the same section of the fault that failed in 1906, it supports the concept that long strike-slip faults can contain master rupture segments that repeat in both length and slip distribution. Recognition of a persistent slip rate gradient along the northern San Andreas fault and the concept of a master segment remove the requirement that lower slip sections of large events such as 1906 must fill in on a periodic basis with smaller and more frequent earthquakes.