D. R. Jackson

The unified model, a fully-compressible, non-hydrostatic, deep atmosphere global circulation model, applied to hot Jupiters - ENDGame for a HD 209458b test case

We are adapting the global circulation model (GCM) of the UK Met Office, the so-called unified model (UM), for the study of hot Jupiters. In this work we demonstrate the successful adaptation of the most sophisticated dynamical core, the component of the GCM which solves the equations of motion for the atmosphere, available within the UM, ENDGame (Even Newer Dynamics for General atmospheric modelling of the environment). Within the same numerical scheme ENDGame supports solution to the dynamical equations under varying degrees of simplification. We present results from a simple, shallow (in atmospheric domain) hot Jupiter model (SHJ), and a more realistic (with a deeper atmosphere) HD 209458b test case. For both test cases we find that the large-scale, time-averaged (over the 1200 days prescribed test period), dynamical state of the atmosphere is relatively insensitive to the level of simplification of the dynamical equations. However, problems exist when attempting to reproduce the results for these test cases derived from other models. For the SHJ case the lower (and upper) boundary intersects the dominant dynamical features of the atmosphere meaning the results are heavily dependent on the boundary conditions. For the HD 209458b test case, when using the more complete dynamical models, the atmosphere is still clearly evolving after 1200 days, and in a transient state. Solving the complete (deep atmosphere and non-hydrostatic) dynamical equations allows exchange between the vertical and horizontal momentum of the atmosphere, via Coriolis and metric terms. Subsequently, interaction between the upper atmosphere and the deeper more slowly evolving (radiatively inactive) atmosphere significantly alters the results, and acts over timescales longer than 1200 days.

Middle Managers: New Purpose, New Directions

Examines the changes facing middle managers as organizations move to leaner, empowered organization focused on delivering service to customers. The model of the inverted triangle leaves middle managers still in the middle, but now confused as to their new role – their world is literally topsy‐turvy. The reasons for these changes are the revolution of information technology, the absence of a hierarchically‐based career path, the need for greater creativity in organizations and the increasing focus on values. Although much has changed, much remains the same. Managers today still have many of the same needs they had in 1967. Identifies five factors of a high‐performing manager.

Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real‐time heliospheric imager observations

Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make “Fearless Forecasts” of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5–6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km s−1, with an average arrival speed of 425km s−1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km s−1.

Stratospheric Vacillations and the Major Warming over Antarctica in 2002

The conditions that lead to the major warming over Antarctica in late September 2002 are examined. In many respects, the warming resembled wave-2 warmings seen in the Northern Hemisphere; the winter cyclonic circulation was split into two smaller cyclones by a large amplitude planetary wave disturbance that appeared to propagate upward from the troposphere. However, in addition to this classic warming mechanism, distinctive stratospheric vacillations occurred throughout the preceding winter months. These vacillations in wave amplitude, Eliassen–Palm fluxes, and zonal-mean zonal winds are examined. By comparison with a numerical model experiment, it is shown that the vacillation is accompanied by a systematic weakening of the westerly winds over the season. This preconditions the Antarctic circulation, and it is argued that it allows anomalously strong vertical propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere into the stratosphere. By contrast, a survey of previous winters shows that stratospheric westerlies usually vary much more gradually, with vacillations only occurring for short periods of time, if at all, in a given winter. Similar vacillations in a numerical model of the stratosphere only occur if the forcing amplitude is above a certain value. However, the level of winter-mean wave activity entering the stratosphere during 2002 is not unprecedented, and there is still some uncertainty over the cause of the onset and persistence of the vacillation and, ultimately, the major warming.

Transport in the low-latitude tropopause zone diagnosed using particle trajectories

Abstract Recent literature has described a “transition zone” between the average top of deep convection in the Tropics and the stratosphere. Here transport across this zone is investigated using an offline trajectory model. Particles were advected by the resolved winds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses. For each boreal winter clusters of particles were released in the upper troposphere over the four main regions of tropical deep convection (Indonesia, central Pacific, South America, and Africa). Most particles remain in the troposphere, descending on average for every cluster. The horizontal components of 5-day trajectories are strongly influenced by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but the Lagrangian average descent does not have a clear ENSO signature. Tropopause crossing locations are first identified by recording events when trajectories from the same release regions cross the World Meteorological Organization lapse rate tropopause. Most crossing events occ...

Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre produces 24/7/365 space weather guidance, alerts, and forecasts to a wide range of government and commercial end users across the United Kingdom. Solar flare forecasts are one of its products, which are issued multiple times a day in two forms; forecasts for each active region on the solar disk over the next 24 hours, and full-disk forecasts for the next four days. Here the forecasting process is described in detail, as well as first verification of archived forecasts using methods commonly used in operational weather prediction. Real-time verification available for operational flare forecasting use is also described. The influence of human forecasters is highlighted, with human-edited forecasts outperforming original model results, and forecasting skill decreasing over longer forecast lead times.

Parameterized Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes from Sources Related to Convection and Large-Scale Precipitation Processes in a Global Atmosphere Model

AbstractAnalysis of a high-resolution, convection-permitting simulation of the tropical Indian Ocean has revealed empirical relationships between precipitation and gravity wave vertical momentum flux on grid scales typical of earth system models. Hence, the authors take a rough functional form, whereby the wave flux source spectrum has an amplitude proportional to the square root of total precipitation, to represent gravity wave source strengths in the Met Office global model’s spectral nonorographic scheme. Key advantages of the new source are simplicity and responsiveness to changes in convection processes without dependence upon model-specific details of their representation. Thus, the new source scheme is potentially a straightforward adaptation for a class of spectral gravity wave schemes widely used for current state-of-the-art earth system models. Against an invariant source, the new parameterized source generates launch-level flux amplitudes with greater spatial and temporal variability, producing...

Examining the Predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 Using Multiple NWP Systems

AbstractThe first multimodel study to estimate the predictability of a boreal sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012/13 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed toward the end of December, which was followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal-mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the United Kingdom and northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized ...

Service Excellence – The Role of Information Technology

Examines ways in which the information technology (IT) function can be more responsive to its customers. Puts forward a seven‐step plan, with the emphasis on action. The goal is to use IT to improve the two key factors – service as perceived by the customer and cost effectiveness.

Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium‐extended range ensemble weather forecasts

As the stratosphere is largely characterized by its ozone abundance, the quality of the ozone field is important for a realistic representation of the stratosphere in weather and climate models. While the stratosphere is directly affected by radiative heating from ozone photodissociation, ozone abundance might also impact the representation of the troposphere since the stratosphere and troposphere are dynamically linked. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of using ozone data from the Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) for medium-extended range tropospheric forecasts in a current numerical weather prediction system. The global component of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System is used, which is run at a resolution of N216 L85 with 24 ensemble members. We compare two scenarios of 31 day forecasts covering the same period, one with the current operational ozone climatology and the other with a monthly mean zonally averaged ozone field computed from the MLS data set. In the extreme case of the Arctic “ozone hole” of March 2011, our results show a general reduction in stratospheric forecast errors in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere as a result of the improved representation of ozone. However, even in such a scenario, where the MLS ozone field is much superior to that of the control, we find that tropospheric forecast errors in the medium-extended range are dominated by the spread of ensemble members and no significant reduction in the root-mean-square forecast errors.